Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Trump Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Penn State vs. Temple | 100% |
| 1H Moneyline | 100% |
| 2Q Spread -5.5 | 100% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 100% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 100% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 100% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| 3Q O/U 4.5 | 100% |
| Spread -5.5 | 93% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 91% |
| 3Q Spread -5.5 | 91% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 91% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 91% |
| 3Q Spread -8.5 | 91% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 91% |
| Penn State 2H O/U 14.5 | 91% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 91% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 91% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 91% |
| Spread -23.5 | 78% |
| Spread -6.5 | 66% |
| Spread -13.5 | 66% |
| Spread -10.5 | 59% |
| Spread -4.5 | 57% |
| Spread -9.5 | 56% |
| Spread -3.5 | 55% |
| Spread -21.5 | 54% |
| Spread -7.5 | 54% |
| O/U 32.5 | 54% |
| Spread -14.5 | 53% |
| Spread -16.5 | 53% |
| Spread -17.5 | 52% |
| Spread -37.5 | 52% |
| Spread -1.5 | 51% |
| Spread -2.5 | 51% |
| Spread -20.5 | 51% |
| O/U 38.5 | 51% |
| Penn State O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Penn State O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Penn State O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Penn State O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Temple O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Temple O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Temple O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Temple O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Spread -22.5 | 50% |
| Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| Spread -31.5 | 50% |
| Spread -34.5 | 50% |
| O/U 30.5 | 50% |
| O/U 34.5 | 50% |
| O/U 36.5 | 50% |
| O/U 40.5 | 50% |
| O/U 42.5 | 50% |
| O/U 46.5 | 50% |
| O/U 48.5 | 50% |
| O/U 54.5 | 50% |
| O/U 58.5 | 50% |
| O/U 60.5 | 50% |
| O/U 62.5 | 50% |
| O/U 64.5 | 50% |
| O/U 66.5 | 50% |
| O/U 68.5 | 50% |
| O/U 70.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -11.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -12.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Penn State O/U 31.5 | 50% |
| Penn State O/U 34.5 | 50% |
| Penn State O/U 37.5 | 50% |
| Penn State O/U 40.5 | 50% |
| Penn State O/U 43.5 | 50% |
| Temple O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| Temple O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Temple O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Temple O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Temple O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Temple O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Penn State O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Carson Hansen: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Rocco Becht: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Brett Eskildsen: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| James Peoples: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Koby Howard: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Benjamin Brahmer: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Andrew Rappleyea: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Quinton Martin Jr.: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Chase Sowell: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| Penn State O/U 30.5 | 50% |
| Penn State O/U 33.5 | 50% |
| Penn State O/U 36.5 | 50% |
| Penn State O/U 39.5 | 50% |
| Penn State O/U 42.5 | 50% |
| Penn State 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Penn State 2H O/U 18.5 | 50% |
| Temple 2H O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Temple 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Temple 2H O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Keveun Mason: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Cam Wallace: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Hunter Smith: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Jayce Freeman: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Peter Clarke: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Jaxon Smolik: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| JoJo Bermudez: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Colin Chase: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| De'Carlos Young: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Keith Jones: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Ryder Kusch: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Spread -44.5 | 50% |
| Spread -41.5 | 50% |
| Spread -40.5 | 50% |
| Spread -38.5 | 50% |
| Spread -32.5 | 50% |
| Spread -29.5 | 50% |
| Spread -28.5 | 50% |
| Spread -26.5 | 50% |
| Spread -25.5 | 50% |
| Spread -19.5 | 50% |
| Spread -18.5 | 50% |
| Spread -15.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Gabe Burkle: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Zay Robinson: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| O/U 50.5 | 49% |
| O/U 44.5 | 47% |
| Spread -30.5 | 47% |
| Spread -24.5 | 45% |
| Spread -27.5 | 44% |
| O/U 56.5 | 40% |
| O/U 52.5 | 32% |
| O/U 51.5 | 14% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 10% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 10% |
| 3Q O/U 16.5 | 10% |
| O/U 49.5 | 4% |
| 1H Spread -11.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -12.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -15.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -5.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -8.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -8.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 0% |
| Penn State 1H O/U 18.5 | 0% |
| Penn State 1H O/U 20.5 | 0% |
| Penn State 1H O/U 22.5 | 0% |
| Temple 1H O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| Temple 1H O/U 6.5 | 0% |
| Temple 1H O/U 8.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 0% |
| 1H O/U 21.5 | 0% |
| 1H O/U 24.5 | 0% |
| 1H O/U 27.5 | 0% |
| 1H O/U 30.5 | 0% |
| 1H O/U 33.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 16.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -11.5 | 0% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 0% |
| 2Q O/U 16.5 | 0% |
| 2Q O/U 19.5 | 0% |
| 2Q O/U 22.5 | 0% |
Market context
The Penn State vs. Temple prediction market currently prices this outcome at 100% YES. In the upcoming college football game between Penn State and Temple, scheduled for September 12 at 12:00PM ET: This market will resolve to "Penn State" if Penn State win the game. This market will res…
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $94K.
Methodology
Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Penn State vs. Temple plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.
Resolution & payout
For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- How accurate are political prediction markets?
- Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.
- What resolution source is used for elections?
- Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.
- Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?
- Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Trump Prediction route into the same order book at 0% fees.
- How fast do political markets react to news?
- High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.
- Are UK election prediction markets available from the UK?
- Yes. Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer UKGC-regulated UK election markets (seat counts, party share, constituency results). Polymarket also lists UK election contracts with deeper global liquidity. Betfair winnings are typically tax-free for UK individuals; Polymarket profits are subject to HMRC CGT.
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