How accurate are political prediction markets?

Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.

What resolution source is used for elections?

Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.

How fast do political markets react to news?

High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.

Are political prediction markets legal in my country?

It varies. They sit in legal gray areas in most jurisdictions. Polymarket is geo-blocked from US/UK/EU; some broker frontends have a different geo footprint. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose, and only if you understand the legal status in your jurisdiction.

Are UK election prediction markets available from the UK?

Yes. Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer UKGC-regulated UK election markets (seat counts, party share, constituency results). Polymarket also lists UK election contracts with deeper global liquidity. Betfair winnings are typically tax-free for UK individuals; Polymarket profits are subject to HMRC CGT.

South Alabama vs. Tulane UK Prediction Odds | Trump Prediction 2026

Name: South Alabama vs. Tulane
Start: 2026-08-31T22:01:49.000Z
End: 2026-09-12T23:00:00.000Z

Platform comparison

Platform	YES odds	NO odds	Fee	KYC	Settlement
Polymarket (via Trump Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker)	91%	9%	0% (USDC on-chain)	No-KYC up to $1,500	USDC, auto via UMA oracle	Live odds →
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com	91%	9%	0%	Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU	USDC, on-chain	Live odds →
Kalshi kalshi.com	—	—	Up to 7% per trade	US-only, KYC required	USD	Live odds →
Betfair Exchange betfair.com	—	—	2-5% commission	Full KYC from first trade	GBP / EUR	Live odds →
Manifold Markets manifold.markets	—	—	Play-money (mana)	None — play-money	Mana (no cash-out)	Live odds →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

Outcome	Probability
South Alabama 1H O/U 7.5	91%
1Q O/U 9.5	91%
O/U 31.5	75%
O/U 33.5	73%
O/U 37.5	67%
O/U 39.5	63%
O/U 35.5	62%
O/U 41.5	61%
Spread -4.5	56%
Spread -1.5	55%
Spread -2.5	53%
Spread -0.5	50%
Spread -24.5	50%
Spread -31.5	50%
Spread -34.5	50%
O/U 45.5	50%
2H Moneyline	50%
South Alabama O/U 2.5	50%
Tulane O/U 3.5	50%
1H Spread -5.5	50%
1H Spread -8.5	50%
1H Moneyline	50%
2H Spread -2.5	50%
2H Spread -3.5	50%
2H Spread -4.5	50%
2H Spread -5.5	50%
2H Spread -6.5	50%
1Q Spread -0.5	50%
1Q Spread -1.5	50%
1Q Spread -2.5	50%
1Q Spread -3.5	50%
1Q Spread -4.5	50%
1Q Moneyline	50%
2Q Spread -1.5	50%
2Q Spread -2.5	50%
2Q Spread -3.5	50%
2Q Spread -4.5	50%
2Q Spread -5.5	50%
2Q Moneyline	50%
3Q Spread -0.5	50%
3Q Spread -1.5	50%
3Q Spread -2.5	50%
3Q Spread -3.5	50%
3Q Spread -4.5	50%
3Q Moneyline	50%
4Q Spread -0.5	50%
4Q Spread -1.5	50%
4Q Spread -2.5	50%
4Q Spread -3.5	50%
4Q Spread -4.5	50%
4Q Moneyline	50%
Tulane O/U 24.5	50%
Tulane O/U 27.5	50%
Tulane O/U 30.5	50%
Tulane O/U 33.5	50%
Tulane O/U 36.5	50%
South Alabama O/U 14.5	50%
South Alabama O/U 17.5	50%
South Alabama O/U 20.5	50%
South Alabama O/U 23.5	50%
South Alabama O/U 26.5	50%
South Alabama 1H O/U 9.5	50%
South Alabama 1H O/U 11.5	50%
1H Spread -2.5	50%
Tulane 1H O/U 12.5	50%
Tulane 1H O/U 14.5	50%
Tulane 1H O/U 16.5	50%
Tulane 2H O/U 12.5	50%
Tulane 2H O/U 14.5	50%
Tulane 2H O/U 16.5	50%
South Alabama 2H O/U 7.5	50%
South Alabama 2H O/U 9.5	50%
South Alabama 2H O/U 11.5	50%
South Alabama 2H O/U 6.5	50%
South Alabama 2H O/U 8.5	50%
South Alabama 2H O/U 10.5	50%
South Alabama O/U 13.5	50%
South Alabama O/U 16.5	50%
South Alabama O/U 19.5	50%
South Alabama O/U 22.5	50%
South Alabama O/U 25.5	50%
Johnnie Daniels: Anytime Touchdown	50%
Jamauri McClure: Anytime Touchdown	50%
PJ Martin: Anytime Touchdown	50%
Keenan Phillips: Anytime Touchdown	50%
Kadin Semonza: Anytime Touchdown	50%
Bishop Davenport: Anytime Touchdown	50%
Jaylin Lucas: Anytime Touchdown	50%
Anthony Brown-Stephens: Anytime Touchdown	50%
Zycarl Lewis Jr.: Anytime Touchdown	50%
Destyn Hill: Anytime Touchdown	50%
Brendan Jenkins: Anytime Touchdown	50%
Maurice Turner: Anytime Touchdown	50%
Anthony Eager: Anytime Touchdown	50%
Trae'von Dunbar: Anytime Touchdown	50%
Micah Woods: Anytime Touchdown	50%
Dawson Johnson: Anytime Touchdown	50%
Ty Thompson: Anytime Touchdown	50%
Jeremiah Jones-Thomas: Anytime Touchdown	50%
Oliver Mitchell Jr.: Anytime Touchdown	50%
Rod Gibbs: Anytime Touchdown	50%
Spread -0.5	50%
Spread -18.5	50%
Spread -26.5	50%
Spread -30.5	50%
1H O/U 18.5	50%
1H O/U 21.5	50%
1H O/U 24.5	50%
1H O/U 27.5	50%
1H O/U 30.5	50%
2H Spread -0.5	50%
2H Spread -7.5	50%
2H O/U 18.5	50%
2H O/U 21.5	50%
2H O/U 24.5	50%
2H O/U 27.5	50%
2H O/U 30.5	50%
1Q Spread -1.5	50%
1Q Spread -5.5	50%
1Q O/U 3.5	50%
1Q O/U 6.5	50%
1Q O/U 12.5	50%
1Q O/U 15.5	50%
2Q Spread -0.5	50%
2Q Spread -7.5	50%
2Q O/U 8.5	50%
2Q O/U 11.5	50%
2Q O/U 14.5	50%
2Q O/U 17.5	50%
2Q O/U 20.5	50%
3Q Spread -1.5	50%
3Q Spread -5.5	50%
3Q O/U 4.5	50%
3Q O/U 7.5	50%
3Q O/U 10.5	50%
3Q O/U 13.5	50%
3Q O/U 16.5	50%
4Q Spread -1.5	50%
4Q Spread -5.5	50%
4Q O/U 7.5	50%
4Q O/U 10.5	50%
4Q O/U 13.5	50%
4Q O/U 16.5	50%
4Q O/U 19.5	50%
O/U 50.5	49%
Spread -17.5	49%
Spread -21.5	49%
O/U 43.5	49%
Spread -6.5	46%
Spread -7.5	46%
1H Spread -4.5	44%
1H Spread -6.5	44%
1H Spread -7.5	44%
Spread -10.5	43%
Spread -3.5	43%
O/U 49.5	42%
Spread -23.5	41%
O/U 55.5	40%
Spread -8.5	40%
O/U 47.5	40%
South Alabama vs. Tulane	39%
Spread -3.5	39%
O/U 51.5	38%
1H Spread -9.5	38%
Spread -6.5	37%
Spread -15.5	34%
1H Spread -3.5	32%
Spread -7.5	32%
Spread -4.5	32%
O/U 57.5	31%
Spread -5.5	30%
Spread -16.5	30%
O/U 53.5	30%
O/U 61.5	30%
Spread -12.5	30%
Spread -11.5	29%
Spread -13.5	29%
Spread -10.5	28%
O/U 52.5	28%
Spread -20.5	28%
O/U 63.5	28%
O/U 67.5	27%
O/U 69.5	27%
Spread -14.5	25%
O/U 65.5	25%
Spread -9.5	24%
O/U 71.5	24%
O/U 59.5	19%
Spread -27.5	11%

Market context

South Alabama vs. Tulane — current market-implied probability: 91%. In the upcoming college football game between South Alabama and Tulane, scheduled for September 12 at 7:00PM ET: This market will resolve to "South Alabama" if South Alabama win the game. This market …

Live Data & Statistics

The Polymarket order book prices South Alabama 1H O/U 7.5 at 91% for "South Alabama vs. Tulane".

South Alabama 1H O/U 7.5 91% Other 9%

Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $90K.

Methodology

This page tracks South Alabama vs. Tulane across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. For users geo-blocked from Polymarket directly, brokers like Trump Prediction provide a 0%-fee route into the same order book.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

How accurate are political prediction markets?: Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.
What resolution source is used for elections?: Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.
How fast do political markets react to news?: High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.
Are political prediction markets legal in my country?: It varies. They sit in legal gray areas in most jurisdictions. Polymarket is geo-blocked from US/UK/EU; some broker frontends have a different geo footprint. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose, and only if you understand the legal status in your jurisdiction.
Are UK election prediction markets available from the UK?: Yes. Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer UKGC-regulated UK election markets (seat counts, party share, constituency results). Polymarket also lists UK election contracts with deeper global liquidity. Betfair winnings are typically tax-free for UK individuals; Polymarket profits are subject to HMRC CGT.

Sarah MitchellPolitical Markets Writerand

James WilliamsPrediction Market Analyst

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South Alabama vs. Tulane

Platform comparison

Outcome probabilities

Market context

Live Data & Statistics

Methodology

Resolution & payout

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Trade South Alabama vs. Tulane on Trump Prediction

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