Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Trump Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
89% | 11% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
89% | 11% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 38.5 | 89% |
| O/U 40.5 | 87% |
| O/U 42.5 | 85% |
| O/U 44.5 | 81% |
| North Texas O/U 20.5 | 78% |
| O/U 46.5 | 77% |
| O/U 48.5 | 73% |
| UNLV O/U 24.5 | 70% |
| North Texas O/U 21.5 | 70% |
| O/U 50.5 | 69% |
| North Texas O/U 23.5 | 66% |
| O/U 52.5 | 63% |
| UNLV O/U 27.5 | 61% |
| North Texas O/U 24.5 | 60% |
| O/U 54.5 | 59% |
| North Texas O/U 26.5 | 58% |
| UNLV vs. North Texas | 57% |
| O/U 56.5 | 56% |
| Spread -0.5 | 56% |
| Spread -1.5 | 56% |
| O/U 57.5 | 53% |
| Spread -2.5 | 53% |
| 1H Moneyline | 53% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 52% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 52% |
| North Texas 1H O/U 13.5 | 52% |
| North Texas O/U 27.5 | 52% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 51% |
| UNLV O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| UNLV O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| UNLV O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| UNLV O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| North Texas O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| North Texas O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| North Texas O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| North Texas O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Spread -31.5 | 50% |
| Spread -34.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| North Texas 1H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| North Texas 1H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| North Texas O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| UNLV O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| UNLV 1H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| UNLV 1H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| North Texas 2H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| North Texas 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| North Texas 2H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| UNLV 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| UNLV 2H O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| UNLV 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Jai'Den Thomas: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Jackson Arnold: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Jahiem White: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Brendon Haygood: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Corri Milliner: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Tayven Jackson: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Jaylon Glover: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Justin Stevenson: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Taeshaun Lyons: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Kayden McGee: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Baron Tipton: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Josiah Martin: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| DeAngelo Irvin Jr.: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Keyan Burnett: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Nick Osho: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Max Reese: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Taz Reddicks: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Darrien Jones: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Tavian McNair: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Shandon King: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Peyton Zachary: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| 1H O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 25.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 28.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 31.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 34.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 25.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 28.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 31.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 34.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 18.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| O/U 58.5 | 49% |
| 2Q Spread -0.5 | 49% |
| UNLV O/U 30.5 | 49% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 48% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 48% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 47% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 47% |
| UNLV 1H O/U 14.5 | 46% |
| Spread -3.5 | 44% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 44% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 44% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 44% |
| O/U 60.5 | 43% |
| Spread -27.5 | 43% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 43% |
| North Texas O/U 29.5 | 43% |
| Spread -0.5 | 43% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 42% |
| Spread -1.5 | 42% |
| O/U 61.5 | 41% |
| Spread -5.5 | 41% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 41% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 41% |
| North Texas O/U 30.5 | 41% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 41% |
| Spread -4.5 | 40% |
| O/U 62.5 | 39% |
| UNLV O/U 33.5 | 39% |
| Spread -2.5 | 39% |
| Spread -6.5 | 38% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 38% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 37% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 37% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 37% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 35% |
| O/U 64.5 | 34% |
| Spread -7.5 | 33% |
| North Texas O/U 32.5 | 33% |
| Spread -3.5 | 32% |
| North Texas O/U 33.5 | 31% |
| Spread -4.5 | 31% |
| Spread -8.5 | 30% |
| Spread -9.5 | 29% |
| O/U 66.5 | 28% |
| UNLV O/U 36.5 | 28% |
| Spread -10.5 | 27% |
| O/U 68.5 | 26% |
| Spread -11.5 | 25% |
| Spread -6.5 | 25% |
| O/U 70.5 | 22% |
| Spread -12.5 | 22% |
| Spread -13.5 | 20% |
| Spread -14.5 | 19% |
| O/U 72.5 | 19% |
| Spread -9.5 | 18% |
| Spread -16.5 | 17% |
| O/U 74.5 | 15% |
| Spread -10.5 | 15% |
| Spread -17.5 | 14% |
| O/U 76.5 | 13% |
| Spread -18.5 | 12% |
| Spread -12.5 | 12% |
| Spread -20.5 | 11% |
| O/U 78.5 | 11% |
| Spread -13.5 | 11% |
| Spread -21.5 | 8% |
| Spread -16.5 | 7% |
| Spread -24.5 | 6% |
Market context
Market consensus: 89% chance of unlv vs. north texas. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. In the upcoming college football game between UNLV and North Texas, scheduled for September 12 at 3:45PM ET: This market will resolve to "UNLV" if UNLV win the game. This market wi…
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $224K.
Methodology
Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for UNLV vs. North Texas plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.
Resolution & payout
For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- How accurate are political prediction markets?
- Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.
- What resolution source is used for elections?
- Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.
- How fast do political markets react to news?
- High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.
- Why do Polymarket and Kalshi differ on elections?
- Kalshi must follow CFTC compliance — strict definitions, clear resolution sources, US citizens only with KYC. Polymarket operates globally without CFTC oversight — deeper liquidity, but also higher regulatory risk.
- Are UK election prediction markets available from the UK?
- Yes. Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer UKGC-regulated UK election markets (seat counts, party share, constituency results). Polymarket also lists UK election contracts with deeper global liquidity. Betfair winnings are typically tax-free for UK individuals; Polymarket profits are subject to HMRC CGT.
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