Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Trump Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Match Winner | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Winner | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Procyon Gaming (-3.5) vs MIBR Academy (+3.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 15.5 | 100% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 27.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Procyon Gaming (-3.5) vs MIBR Academy (+3.5) | 50% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: MIBR Academy (-3.5) vs Procyon Gaming (+3.5) | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 1% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: MIBR Academy (-6.5) vs Procyon Gaming (+6.5) | 1% |
| Map Handicap: MIBR.A (-1.5) vs Procyon Gaming (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Winner | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: MIBR Academy (-3.5) vs Procyon Gaming (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: MIBR Academy (-6.5) vs Procyon Gaming (+6.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Procyon Gaming (-9.5) vs MIBR Academy (+9.5) | 0% |
| Map Handicap: PCY (-1.5) vs MIBR Academy (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Procyon Gaming (-3.5) vs MIBR Academy (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: MIBR Academy (-3.5) vs Procyon Gaming (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Procyon Gaming (-6.5) vs MIBR Academy (+6.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Procyon Gaming (-12.5) vs MIBR Academy (+12.5) | 0% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 100% YES probability for Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs Procyon Gaming (BO3) - CCT South America Series 3 Group Stage. This market refers to the Counter-Strike Round 2 match between MIBR Academy and Procyon Gaming in the CCT South America Series 3 Group Stage, initially scheduled for June 29 at 6:00PM ET. This market…
Methodology
Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs Procyon Gaming (BO3) - CCT South America Series 3 Group Stage plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.
Resolution & payout
For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.
FAQ
- What resolution source is used for elections?
- Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.
- Can prediction markets influence election outcomes?
- Markets reflect expectations rather than create them. Studies show public-facing markets can anchor expectations, but don't influence the underlying outcome. Political markets are information, not advocacy.
- How fast do political markets react to news?
- High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.
- Are political prediction markets legal in my country?
- It varies. They sit in legal gray areas in most jurisdictions. Polymarket is geo-blocked from US/UK/EU; some broker frontends have a different geo footprint. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose, and only if you understand the legal status in your jurisdiction.
- Why do Polymarket and Kalshi differ on elections?
- Kalshi must follow CFTC compliance — strict definitions, clear resolution sources, US citizens only with KYC. Polymarket operates globally without CFTC oversight — deeper liquidity, but also higher regulatory risk.
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