Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Trump Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Florian Wirtz: 1+ shots | 100% |
| Julio César Enciso: 2+ shots | 100% |
| Julio César Enciso: 1+ goals | 100% |
| Julio César Enciso: 1+ shots | 99% |
| Kai Havertz: 1+ shots | 98% |
| Julio César Enciso: 1+ goals + assists | 98% |
| Deniz Undav: 1+ shots | 90% |
| Joshua Kimmich: 1+ shots | 85% |
| Jamal Musiala: 1+ shots | 78% |
| Joshua Kimmich: 2+ shots | 75% |
| Deniz Undav: 2+ shots | 73% |
| Florian Wirtz: 3+ shots | 71% |
| Nathaniel Brown: 1+ goals + assists | 59% |
| Florian Wirtz: 2+ shots | 52% |
| Leroy Sané: 1+ shots | 51% |
| Deniz Undav: 1+ shots on target | 51% |
| Julio César Enciso: 1+ shots on target | 51% |
| Nick Woltemade: 4+ shots on target | 51% |
| Felix Nmecha: 2+ shots on target | 51% |
| Julio César Enciso: 4+ shots | 51% |
| Julio César Enciso: 3+ shots on target | 51% |
| Kai Havertz: 4+ shots on target | 51% |
| Maximilian Beier: 3+ shots on target | 51% |
| Gastón Olveira: 4+ saves | 51% |
| Nadiem Amiri: 3+ shots on target | 51% |
| Nick Woltemade: 2+ goals + assists | 51% |
| Miguel Almirón: 1+ goals | 51% |
| Nathaniel Brown: 1+ assists | 51% |
| Florian Wirtz: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Florian Wirtz: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Jamie Leweling: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Jamie Leweling: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Jamie Leweling: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Julio César Enciso: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Leroy Sané: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Maximilian Beier: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Nick Woltemade: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Nick Woltemade: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Nick Woltemade: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Nick Woltemade: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Nick Woltemade: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Assan Ouedraogo: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Assan Ouedraogo: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Assan Ouedraogo: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Assan Ouedraogo: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Deniz Undav: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Deniz Undav: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Deniz Undav: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Florian Wirtz: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Florian Wirtz: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Florian Wirtz: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Florian Wirtz: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jamal Musiala: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jamal Musiala: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jamal Musiala: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jamie Leweling: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jamie Leweling: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jamie Leweling: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Felix Nmecha: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Felix Nmecha: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Leon Goretzka: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Leon Goretzka: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Felix Nmecha: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Felix Nmecha: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Leroy Sané: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Leroy Sané: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Leroy Sané: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Maximilian Beier: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Maximilian Beier: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Maximilian Beier: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Maximilian Beier: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Julio César Enciso: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Kai Havertz: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Kai Havertz: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Leroy Sané: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Leroy Sané: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Leroy Sané: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Maximilian Beier: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Maximilian Beier: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Maximilian Beier: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Nick Woltemade: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Nick Woltemade: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Nick Woltemade: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Gastón Olveira: 3+ saves | 50% |
| Gastón Olveira: 5+ saves | 50% |
| Manuel Neuer: 2+ saves | 50% |
| Manuel Neuer: 3+ saves | 50% |
| Manuel Neuer: 4+ saves | 50% |
| Manuel Neuer: 5+ saves | 50% |
| Kai Havertz: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Nadiem Amiri: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Nadiem Amiri: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Assan Ouedraogo: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Assan Ouedraogo: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Assan Ouedraogo: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Assan Ouedraogo: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Deniz Undav: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Deniz Undav: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Deniz Undav: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Deniz Undav: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Florian Wirtz: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Florian Wirtz: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Florian Wirtz: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Florian Wirtz: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nadiem Amiri: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Nadiem Amiri: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Assan Ouedraogo: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Assan Ouedraogo: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Assan Ouedraogo: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Assan Ouedraogo: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Assan Ouedraogo: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Jamal Musiala: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jamal Musiala: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jamal Musiala: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jamal Musiala: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jamie Leweling: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jamie Leweling: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jamie Leweling: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jamie Leweling: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Kai Havertz: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Kai Havertz: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Kai Havertz: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Kai Havertz: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Leroy Sané: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Leroy Sané: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Leroy Sané: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Leroy Sané: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Maximilian Beier: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Maximilian Beier: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Maximilian Beier: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Maximilian Beier: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nadiem Amiri: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nadiem Amiri: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nadiem Amiri: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nick Woltemade: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nick Woltemade: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nick Woltemade: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jamal Musiala: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Jamal Musiala: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Jamal Musiala: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Jamal Musiala: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Joshua Kimmich: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Joshua Kimmich: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Leon Goretzka: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Leon Goretzka: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Leon Goretzka: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Felix Nmecha: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Felix Nmecha: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Felix Nmecha: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Felix Nmecha: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Joshua Kimmich: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Joshua Kimmich: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Joshua Kimmich: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Julio César Enciso: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Julio César Enciso: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Julio César Enciso: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Leon Goretzka: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Leon Goretzka: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Leon Goretzka: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Felix Nmecha: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Felix Nmecha: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Felix Nmecha: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Kai Havertz: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Kai Havertz: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Kai Havertz: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Jamal Musiala: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jamie Leweling: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Deniz Undav: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Deniz Undav: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Deniz Undav: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Miguel Almirón: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Miguel Almirón: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Nathaniel Brown: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Nathaniel Brown: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Miguel Almirón: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Miguel Almirón: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Miguel Almirón: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Miguel Almirón: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nathaniel Brown: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nathaniel Brown: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nathaniel Brown: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Miguel Almirón: 2+ goals | 50% |
| Nathaniel Brown: 1+ goals | 50% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Joshua Kimmich: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Joshua Kimmich: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Miguel Almirón: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Miguel Almirón: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Miguel Almirón: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Miguel Almirón: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Nathaniel Brown: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Nathaniel Brown: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Nathaniel Brown: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Miguel Almirón: 1+ assists | 50% |
| Miguel Almirón: 2+ assists | 50% |
| Nathaniel Brown: 2+ assists | 50% |
| Nathaniel Brown: 2+ goals | 49% |
| Gastón Olveira: 2+ saves | 48% |
| Nadiem Amiri: 2+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Leon Goretzka: 2+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Kai Havertz: 1+ shots on target | 40% |
| Jamie Leweling: 2+ shots | 29% |
| Julio César Enciso: 2+ assists | 28% |
| Joshua Kimmich: 3+ goals + assists | 26% |
| Deniz Undav: 1+ goals | 25% |
| Assan Ouedraogo: 1+ assists | 25% |
| Jamie Leweling: 1+ assists | 25% |
| Leon Goretzka: 1+ assists | 24% |
| Maximilian Beier: 1+ assists | 24% |
| Nadiem Amiri: 1+ assists | 24% |
| Nick Woltemade: 1+ assists | 24% |
| Deniz Undav: 1+ assists | 24% |
| Leon Goretzka: 2+ assists | 23% |
| Kai Havertz: 1+ goals | 23% |
| Assan Ouedraogo: 2+ assists | 23% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 1+ goals | 23% |
| Leon Goretzka: 3+ goals | 23% |
| Jamie Leweling: 4+ shots | 21% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 1+ assists | 21% |
| Julio César Enciso: 3+ shots | 19% |
| Florian Wirtz: 1+ goals | 17% |
| Jamal Musiala: 1+ goals | 17% |
| Nick Woltemade: 1+ goals | 17% |
| Florian Wirtz: 1+ assists | 17% |
| Leroy Sané: 1+ goals | 16% |
| Leroy Sané: 1+ assists | 14% |
| Felix Nmecha: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Assan Ouedraogo: 1+ goals | 13% |
| Assan Ouedraogo: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Assan Ouedraogo: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Jamie Leweling: 1+ goals | 13% |
| Jamie Leweling: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Jamie Leweling: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Nadiem Amiri: 1+ goals | 13% |
| Nadiem Amiri: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Nadiem Amiri: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Nick Woltemade: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Nick Woltemade: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Deniz Undav: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Jamal Musiala: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Jamie Leweling: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Maximilian Beier: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Nadiem Amiri: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Nick Woltemade: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Leon Goretzka: 1+ goals | 13% |
| Leon Goretzka: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Joshua Kimmich: 1+ assists | 12% |
| Maximilian Beier: 1+ goals | 12% |
| Maximilian Beier: 3+ goals | 12% |
| Florian Wirtz: 2+ assists | 12% |
| Maximilian Beier: 2+ goals | 11% |
| Kai Havertz: 2+ assists | 11% |
| Felix Nmecha: 1+ assists | 10% |
| Jamal Musiala: 1+ assists | 9% |
| Kai Havertz: 1+ assists | 8% |
| Joshua Kimmich: 1+ goals | 8% |
| Felix Nmecha: 1+ goals | 6% |
| Julio César Enciso: 1+ assists | 5% |
| Jamal Musiala: 2+ goals | 4% |
| Kai Havertz: 2+ goals | 4% |
| Julio César Enciso: 2+ goals | 4% |
| Joshua Kimmich: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Deniz Undav: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Florian Wirtz: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Leroy Sané: 3+ goals | 3% |
| Leroy Sané: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Florian Wirtz: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Kai Havertz: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Leroy Sané: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Felix Nmecha: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Joshua Kimmich: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Deniz Undav: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Jamal Musiala: 3+ goals | 1% |
Market context
The underlying event is the FIFA World Cup Round of 32 match between Germany and Paraguay, scheduled for 4:30 PM ET on 29 June 2026. Germany entered as Group E winners, while Paraguay finished second in Group D, setting the stage for a knockout clash where Germany is heavily favoured to advance.
Historically, top-tier European sides like Germany have rarely lost to mid-table South American opponents in early World Cup knockout rounds, with the last such upset occurring in 2014. Comparable cases show that when a team holds a -300 moneyline advantage, the implied probability of victory typically exceeds 70%, yet the current 52% YES crowd-implied probability suggests traders are pricing in significant variance, possibly due to recent defensive disclosures in Paraguay’s campaign-finance reports that hint at internal instability.
Traders should monitor pre-match declarations from both squads, particularly any late injury updates or tactical shifts announced by coaches within the next 12 hours. The market is leaning on the catalyst of Germany’s offensive momentum, as highlighted by Covers.com’s analysis noting their -334 moneyline status and expectation of a multi-goal win. Recent news from ESPN confirms the over/under is set at 2.5 goals, reinforcing the likelihood of a high-scoring affair that could validate player props tied to shots on target or goal contributions.
Methodology
This page tracks Germany vs. Paraguay - Player Props across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. For users geo-blocked from Polymarket directly, brokers like Trump Prediction provide a 0%-fee route into the same order book.
Resolution & payout
Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.
Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.
FAQ
- Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?
- Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Trump Prediction route into the same order book at 0% fees.
- How fast do political markets react to news?
- High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.
- Are political prediction markets legal in my country?
- It varies. They sit in legal gray areas in most jurisdictions. Polymarket is geo-blocked from US/UK/EU; some broker frontends have a different geo footprint. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose, and only if you understand the legal status in your jurisdiction.
- Why do Polymarket and Kalshi differ on elections?
- Kalshi must follow CFTC compliance — strict definitions, clear resolution sources, US citizens only with KYC. Polymarket operates globally without CFTC oversight — deeper liquidity, but also higher regulatory risk.
- Which political events have the biggest volume?
- US Presidential election, party nominations (DNC/RNC), Senate majorities, individual state outcomes (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin), and major European elections. Peak markets reach $50-500M per event.
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