Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Trump Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Folarin Balogun: 1+ goals | 100% |
| Folarin Balogun: 1+ shots | 100% |
| Christian Pulisic: 1+ shots | 100% |
| Christian Pulisic: 4+ shots | 52% |
| Folarin Balogun: 1+ goals + assists | 52% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 1+ shots | 51% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 2+ shots | 51% |
| Tim Weah: 1+ shots | 51% |
| Tim Weah: 2+ shots | 51% |
| Weston McKennie: 1+ goals + assists | 51% |
| Edin Džeko: 1+ goals + assists | 51% |
| Weston McKennie: 1+ shots | 51% |
| Alejandro Zendejas: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Alejandro Zendejas: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Gio Reyna: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Gio Reyna: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Gio Reyna: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Gio Reyna: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Gio Reyna: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Haji Wright: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Haji Wright: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Haji Wright: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Kerim Alajbegović: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Kerim Alajbegović: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Kerim Alajbegović: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Kerim Alajbegović: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Alejandro Zendejas: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Alejandro Zendejas: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Folarin Balogun: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Folarin Balogun: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Gio Reyna: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Haji Wright: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Haji Wright: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Kerim Alajbegović: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Kerim Alajbegović: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Kerim Alajbegović: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Christian Pulisic: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Christian Pulisic: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Christian Pulisic: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Folarin Balogun: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Tim Weah: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Alejandro Zendejas: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Alejandro Zendejas: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Alejandro Zendejas: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Sebastian Berhalter: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Sebastian Berhalter: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Sebastian Berhalter: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Sebastian Berhalter: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Sebastian Berhalter: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Tim Weah: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Tim Weah: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Tim Weah: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Christian Pulisic: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Folarin Balogun: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Malik Tillman: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Christian Pulisic: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Christian Pulisic: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Folarin Balogun: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Weston McKennie: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Weston McKennie: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Weston McKennie: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Gio Reyna: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Gio Reyna: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Haji Wright: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Malik Tillman: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Malik Tillman: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Sebastian Berhalter: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Sebastian Berhalter: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Sebastian Berhalter: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Tim Weah: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Tim Weah: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Malik Tillman: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Malik Tillman: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Malik Tillman: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Malik Tillman: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Malik Tillman: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Alejandro Zendejas: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Christian Pulisic: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Christian Pulisic: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Christian Pulisic: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Edin Džeko: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Edin Džeko: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Edin Džeko: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Edin Džeko: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Edin Džeko: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Edin Džeko: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Edin Džeko: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Folarin Balogun: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Weston McKennie: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Gio Reyna: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Weston McKennie: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Weston McKennie: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Kerim Alajbegović: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Kerim Alajbegović: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Kerim Alajbegović: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Kerim Alajbegović: 2+ assists | 50% |
| Kerim Alajbegović: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Haji Wright: 3+ shots | 49% |
| Alejandro Zendejas: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Folarin Balogun: 4+ shots on target | 49% |
| Gio Reyna: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Gio Reyna: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Haji Wright: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Haji Wright: 4+ shots on target | 49% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Christian Pulisic: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Tim Weah: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Tim Weah: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Sebastian Berhalter: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Sebastian Berhalter: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Sebastian Berhalter: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Folarin Balogun: 5+ shots | 49% |
| Weston McKennie: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Gio Reyna: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Haji Wright: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Haji Wright: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Tim Weah: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Malik Tillman: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Alejandro Zendejas: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Alejandro Zendejas: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Folarin Balogun: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Folarin Balogun: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Edin Džeko: 5+ shots | 49% |
| Edin Džeko: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Edin Džeko: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Malik Tillman: 1+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 4+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Edin Džeko: 4+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Chris Brady: 3+ saves | 47% |
| Chris Brady: 4+ saves | 47% |
| Chris Brady: 5+ saves | 47% |
| Martin Zlomislić: 2+ saves | 47% |
| Martin Zlomislić: 3+ saves | 47% |
| Martin Zlomislić: 4+ saves | 47% |
| Martin Zlomislić: 5+ saves | 47% |
| Gio Reyna: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Haji Wright: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Malik Tillman: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Sebastian Berhalter: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Tim Weah: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Alejandro Zendejas: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Christian Pulisic: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Folarin Balogun: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Weston McKennie: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Chris Brady: 2+ saves | 46% |
| Weston McKennie: 2+ shots | 46% |
| Kerim Alajbegović: 3+ shots | 45% |
| Weston McKennie: 3+ shots | 43% |
| Haji Wright: 4+ shots | 42% |
| Malik Tillman: 3+ shots | 41% |
| Christian Pulisic: 1+ assists | 39% |
| Folarin Balogun: 1+ assists | 34% |
| Weston McKennie: 1+ assists | 34% |
| Christian Pulisic: 1+ goals | 32% |
| Folarin Balogun: 2+ goals | 30% |
| Malik Tillman: 1+ assists | 27% |
| Edin Džeko: 1+ goals | 24% |
| Edin Džeko: 1+ assists | 21% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 3+ goals | 18% |
| Gio Reyna: 1+ goals | 17% |
| Gio Reyna: 1+ assists | 17% |
| Malik Tillman: 1+ goals | 16% |
| Alejandro Zendejas: 1+ assists | 16% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 1+ assists | 15% |
| Haji Wright: 1+ assists | 15% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 1+ assists | 15% |
| Sebastian Berhalter: 1+ assists | 15% |
| Tim Weah: 1+ assists | 15% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 1+ goals | 14% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 1+ goals | 14% |
| Sebastian Berhalter: 1+ goals | 14% |
| Weston McKennie: 1+ goals | 14% |
| Alejandro Zendejas: 1+ goals | 13% |
| Alejandro Zendejas: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Alejandro Zendejas: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Folarin Balogun: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Gio Reyna: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Gio Reyna: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Haji Wright: 1+ goals | 13% |
| Haji Wright: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Sebastian Berhalter: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Tim Weah: 1+ goals | 13% |
| Tim Weah: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Tim Weah: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Weston McKennie: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Malik Tillman: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Alejandro Zendejas: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Gio Reyna: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Haji Wright: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Malik Tillman: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Sebastian Berhalter: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Tim Weah: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Sebastian Berhalter: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Edin Džeko: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Weston McKennie: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Folarin Balogun: 2+ assists | 12% |
| Edin Džeko: 3+ goals | 12% |
| Haji Wright: 2+ goals | 9% |
| Kerim Alajbegović: 1+ assists | 9% |
| Kerim Alajbegović: 1+ goals | 5% |
| Kerim Alajbegović: 2+ goals | 4% |
| Malik Tillman: 2+ goals | 4% |
| Christian Pulisic: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Edin Džeko: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Christian Pulisic: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Weston McKennie: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Christian Pulisic: 3+ goals | 0% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 100% probability to united states vs. bosnia and herzegovina - player props. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between United States and Bosnia and Herzegovina, scheduled for July 1 at 8:00 PM ET.
Methodology
Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for United States vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina - Player Props plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.
Resolution & payout
Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.
Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.
FAQ
- How accurate are political prediction markets?
- Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.
- What resolution source is used for elections?
- Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.
- How fast do political markets react to news?
- High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.
- Are political prediction markets legal in my country?
- It varies. They sit in legal gray areas in most jurisdictions. Polymarket is geo-blocked from US/UK/EU; some broker frontends have a different geo footprint. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose, and only if you understand the legal status in your jurisdiction.
- Why do Polymarket and Kalshi differ on elections?
- Kalshi must follow CFTC compliance — strict definitions, clear resolution sources, US citizens only with KYC. Polymarket operates globally without CFTC oversight — deeper liquidity, but also higher regulatory risk.
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