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LoL: Karmine Corp vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In

How the prediction markets are pricing "LoL: Karmine Corp vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In" right now — live Polymarket order book quote, plus platform comparison.

Match Winner 77% Both Teams Slay a Dragon 69% Both Teams Slay a Dragon 69% Game 1 Winner 68% Volume: $229K Liquidity: $572K Closes: 30 Jun 2026
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LoL: Karmine Corp vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Trump Prediction) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
 77% 23% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Live odds →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
 77% 23% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Live odds →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
 — — Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Live odds →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
 — — 2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Live odds →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
 — — Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Live odds →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Match Winner77%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon69%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon69%
Game 1 Winner68%
Game 2 Winner68%
O/U 3.5 Games68%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon68%
Game 3 Winner67%
Game 4 Winner62%
Game Handicap: KC (-1.5) vs Team Liquid (+1.5)60%
First Blood in Game 4?53%
Any Player Quadra Kill52%
Any Player Quadra Kill52%
Any Player Penta Kill52%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 3?52%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2?52%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor51%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors51%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor51%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors51%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1?51%
First Blood in Game 3?51%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
Any Player Penta Kill50%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
First Blood in Game 1?50%
Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 4?50%
First Blood in Game 2?50%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon44%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon44%
Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 2?39%
Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 1?39%
Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 3?38%
Game Handicap: KC (-2.5) vs Team Liquid (+2.5)31%
O/U 4.5 Games30%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 4?30%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor28%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors28%
Any Player Quadra Kill28%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor28%
Any Player Quadra Kill28%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor27%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors27%
Any Player Quadra Kill27%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors26%
Any Player Penta Kill11%
Any Player Penta Kill11%
Any Player Penta Kill11%

Market context

The LoL: Karmine Corp vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In prediction market currently prices this outcome at 77% YES. This market refers to the LoL Lower bracket final match between Karmine Corp and Team Liquid in the Mid-Season Invitational Play-In, initially scheduled for June 30 at 4:00AM ET. This market will res…

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for LoL: Karmine Corp vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

What resolution source is used for elections?
Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.
Can prediction markets influence election outcomes?
Markets reflect expectations rather than create them. Studies show public-facing markets can anchor expectations, but don't influence the underlying outcome. Political markets are information, not advocacy.
Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?
Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Trump Prediction route into the same order book at 0% fees.
How fast do political markets react to news?
High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.
Why do Polymarket and Kalshi differ on elections?
Kalshi must follow CFTC compliance — strict definitions, clear resolution sources, US citizens only with KYC. Polymarket operates globally without CFTC oversight — deeper liquidity, but also higher regulatory risk.
Sarah MitchellSarah MitchellPolitical Markets WriterandJames WilliamsJames WilliamsPrediction Market Analyst

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