Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Trump Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
95% | 5% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
95% | 5% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 203.5 | 95% |
| O/U 205.5 | 94% |
| O/U 207.5 | 93% |
| O/U 209.5 | 91% |
| O/U 211.5 | 89% |
| Mavericks O/U 96.5 | 88% |
| O/U 213.5 | 85% |
| Spurs vs. Mavericks | 84% |
| O/U 215.5 | 81% |
| Mavericks O/U 98.5 | 81% |
| Spread -2.5 | 80% |
| 1H O/U 102.5 | 80% |
| 1H O/U 104.5 | 80% |
| 1H O/U 108.5 | 80% |
| Spread -3.5 | 78% |
| 1H O/U 106.5 | 78% |
| 1H O/U 112.5 | 78% |
| O/U 217.5 | 77% |
| Spread -4.5 | 76% |
| 1H Moneyline | 76% |
| 1H O/U 110.5 | 76% |
| O/U 219.5 | 75% |
| Mavericks O/U 100.5 | 75% |
| Spread -5.5 | 73% |
| O/U 220.5 | 73% |
| Mavericks O/U 102.5 | 72% |
| Spread -6.5 | 71% |
| O/U 221.5 | 70% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 70% |
| Spread -7.5 | 68% |
| O/U 223.5 | 67% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 66% |
| 1H O/U 114.5 | 66% |
| Mavericks O/U 104.5 | 66% |
| Spurs O/U 111.5 | 66% |
| Spread -8.5 | 64% |
| Spurs O/U 113.5 | 64% |
| O/U 225.5 | 63% |
| Spread -9.5 | 62% |
| Devin Vassell: Assists O/U 1.5 | 62% |
| Devin Vassell: Points O/U 9.5 | 62% |
| O/U 226.5 | 61% |
| 1H O/U 116.5 | 61% |
| Spurs O/U 115.5 | 61% |
| Mavericks O/U 106.5 | 60% |
| Spread -10.5 | 59% |
| O/U 227.5 | 59% |
| Spurs O/U 121.5 | 59% |
| Naji Marshall: Points O/U 14.5 | 58% |
| Spurs O/U 123.5 | 58% |
| O/U 228.5 | 57% |
| Spurs O/U 117.5 | 57% |
| Spread -11.5 | 56% |
| O/U 229.5 | 56% |
| Dylan Harper: Assists O/U 3.5 | 56% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 56% |
| Spurs O/U 119.5 | 56% |
| 1H O/U 118.5 | 55% |
| Stephon Castle: Assists O/U 5.5 | 55% |
| O/U 230.5 | 54% |
| Spread -12.5 | 53% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 53% |
| Mavericks O/U 108.5 | 53% |
| Stephon Castle: Points O/U 9.5 | 52% |
| 1Q O/U 60.5 | 52% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 52% |
| O/U 231.5 | 51% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 51% |
| Devin Vassell: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 51% |
| Stephon Castle: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 51% |
| Naji Marshall: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 51% |
| P.J. Washington: Assists O/U 1.5 | 51% |
| Team to Score First | 50% |
| Odd/Even Score | 50% |
| Overtime? | 50% |
| Race to 10 | 50% |
| Race to 20 | 50% |
| Race to 30 | 50% |
| Devin Vassell: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Dylan Harper: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| De'Aaron Fox: Assists O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Dylan Harper: Assists O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Stephon Castle: Assists O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| De'Aaron Fox: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| De'Aaron Fox: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| De'Aaron Fox: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Dylan Harper: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Dylan Harper: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Dylan Harper: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Stephon Castle: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Stephon Castle: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Stephon Castle: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Blocks O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Blocks O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Blocks O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Blocks O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Kyrie Irving: Points O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Kyrie Irving: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Kyrie Irving: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Kyrie Irving: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Kyrie Irving: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Naji Marshall: Points O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Naji Marshall: Points O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Naji Marshall: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Naji Marshall: Assists O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Naji Marshall: Assists O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Naji Marshall: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Naji Marshall: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Naji Marshall: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -25.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 120.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 58.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 62.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 64.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 48.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 50.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 52.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 54.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 54.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 56.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 50.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 52.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 54.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 58.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 60.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 52.5 | 50% |
| Mavericks 1H O/U 51.5 | 50% |
| Mavericks 1H O/U 53.5 | 50% |
| Mavericks 1H O/U 55.5 | 50% |
| Mavericks 1H O/U 57.5 | 50% |
| Mavericks 1H O/U 59.5 | 50% |
| Spurs 1H O/U 66.5 | 50% |
| Mavericks 2H O/U 50.5 | 50% |
| Mavericks 2H O/U 52.5 | 50% |
| Mavericks 2H O/U 54.5 | 50% |
| Mavericks 2H O/U 56.5 | 50% |
| Mavericks 2H O/U 58.5 | 50% |
| Spurs O/U 109.5 | 50% |
| Spurs 1H O/U 58.5 | 50% |
| Spurs 1H O/U 60.5 | 50% |
| Spurs 1H O/U 62.5 | 50% |
| Spurs 1H O/U 64.5 | 50% |
| Spurs 2H O/U 56.5 | 50% |
| Spurs 2H O/U 58.5 | 50% |
| Spurs 2H O/U 60.5 | 50% |
| Spurs 2H O/U 62.5 | 50% |
| Spurs 2H O/U 64.5 | 50% |
| Daniel Gafford: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Max Christie: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Daniel Gafford: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Max Christie: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| P.J. Washington: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Daniel Gafford: Blocks O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Daniel Gafford: Blocks O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Daniel Gafford: Blocks O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| P.J. Washington: Blocks O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| P.J. Washington: Blocks O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| P.J. Washington: Blocks O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Devin Vassell: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Devin Vassell: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Devin Vassell: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Stephon Castle: Points O/U 17.5 | 49% |
| De'Aaron Fox: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Assists O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| Kyrie Irving: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 49% |
| P.J. Washington: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 49% |
| Spread -13.5 | 48% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 48% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 19.5 | 48% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 48% |
| De'Aaron Fox: Assists O/U 3.5 | 48% |
| Stephon Castle: Points O/U 34.5 | 48% |
| 1H Spread -11.5 | 48% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 48% |
| 1H Spread -15.5 | 48% |
| 1H Spread -19.5 | 48% |
| 1H Spread -23.5 | 48% |
| 4Q O/U 56.5 | 48% |
| Daniel Gafford: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 48% |
| Max Christie: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 48% |
| Max Christie: 3-Pointers Made O/U 5.5 | 48% |
| P.J. Washington: Assists O/U 5.5 | 48% |
| Devin Vassell: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 47% |
| Stephon Castle: Points O/U 14.5 | 47% |
| Stephon Castle: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 47% |
| Devin Vassell: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 47% |
| Victor Wembanyama: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 47% |
| Kyrie Irving: Assists O/U 1.5 | 47% |
| Max Christie: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 47% |
| O/U 233.5 | 46% |
| Dylan Harper: Points O/U 9.5 | 46% |
| Mavericks O/U 110.5 | 46% |
| Spread -14.5 | 45% |
| De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 14.5 | 45% |
| Stephon Castle: Assists O/U 3.5 | 45% |
| Stephon Castle: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 45% |
| Kyrie Irving: Points O/U 14.5 | 45% |
| Max Christie: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 45% |
| O/U 234.5 | 44% |
| De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 9.5 | 44% |
| Stephon Castle: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 43% |
| De'Aaron Fox: Assists O/U 5.5 | 43% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 43% |
| De'Aaron Fox: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 43% |
| 1H O/U 122.5 | 43% |
| Daniel Gafford: Points O/U 19.5 | 43% |
| P.J. Washington: Points O/U 14.5 | 43% |
| Kyrie Irving: 3-Pointers Made O/U 5.5 | 43% |
| Stephon Castle: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 42% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 42% |
| P.J. Washington: Points O/U 9.5 | 42% |
| Daniel Gafford: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 42% |
| P.J. Washington: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 42% |
| 2Q O/U 62.5 | 41% |
| O/U 236.5 | 40% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 24.5 | 40% |
| Dylan Harper: Assists O/U 9.5 | 40% |
| Dylan Harper: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 40% |
| Naji Marshall: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 40% |
| Naji Marshall: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 40% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 40% |
| Mavericks O/U 112.5 | 40% |
| Spurs O/U 129.5 | 40% |
| P.J. Washington: Rebounds O/U 13.5 | 40% |
| Spread -16.5 | 39% |
| Daniel Gafford: Rebounds O/U 13.5 | 39% |
| P.J. Washington: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 39% |
| P.J. Washington: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 39% |
| P.J. Washington: Points O/U 29.5 | 39% |
| De'Aaron Fox: Assists O/U 11.5 | 38% |
| Naji Marshall: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 38% |
| 2Q O/U 58.5 | 38% |
| Max Christie: Points O/U 24.5 | 38% |
| De'Aaron Fox: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 37% |
| Dylan Harper: Points O/U 34.5 | 37% |
| Devin Vassell: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 37% |
| Mavericks O/U 118.5 | 37% |
| Dylan Harper: Points O/U 14.5 | 36% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Assists O/U 7.5 | 36% |
| Kyrie Irving: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 36% |
| 2Q O/U 60.5 | 36% |
| Spurs O/U 131.5 | 36% |
| Daniel Gafford: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 36% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 29.5 | 35% |
| Dylan Harper: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 35% |
| Kyrie Irving: Assists O/U 3.5 | 35% |
| 1H O/U 124.5 | 35% |
| Max Christie: Points O/U 9.5 | 35% |
| Max Christie: Assists O/U 1.5 | 35% |
| Spread -18.5 | 34% |
| Kyrie Irving: Points O/U 19.5 | 34% |
| Naji Marshall: Assists O/U 3.5 | 34% |
| Max Christie: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 34% |
| O/U 239.5 | 33% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 44.5 | 33% |
| 3Q O/U 56.5 | 33% |
| Mavericks O/U 114.5 | 33% |
| Kyrie Irving: Points O/U 39.5 | 33% |
| 4Q O/U 54.5 | 32% |
| Spurs O/U 133.5 | 32% |
| Spread -19.5 | 31% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Assists O/U 2.5 | 31% |
| Victor Wembanyama: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 31% |
| 3Q O/U 62.5 | 31% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 31% |
| Stephon Castle: Assists O/U 11.5 | 30% |
| Victor Wembanyama: 3-Pointers Made O/U 5.5 | 30% |
| Kyrie Irving: Points O/U 34.5 | 30% |
| Kyrie Irving: Points O/U 20.5 | 30% |
| Devin Vassell: 3-Pointers Made O/U 5.5 | 29% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 29% |
| O/U 242.5 | 28% |
| Spread -20.5 | 28% |
| Devin Vassell: Points O/U 11.5 | 28% |
| Dylan Harper: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 28% |
| De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 29.5 | 28% |
| Kyrie Irving: Points O/U 21.5 | 28% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 28% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 28% |
| Mavericks O/U 116.5 | 28% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 27.5 | 28% |
| P.J. Washington: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 28% |
| Dylan Harper: Points O/U 17.5 | 27% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 27% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 27% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 28.5 | 26% |
| De'Aaron Fox: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 26% |
| Stephon Castle: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 26% |
| Kyrie Irving: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 26% |
| Max Christie: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 26% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 25% |
| Spread -22.5 | 24% |
| Kyrie Irving: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 24% |
| Victor Wembanyama: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 23% |
| Daniel Gafford: Points O/U 9.5 | 23% |
| P.J. Washington: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 23% |
| O/U 245.5 | 22% |
| Stephon Castle: Points O/U 19.5 | 22% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Assists O/U 3.5 | 22% |
| Dylan Harper: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 22% |
| Dylan Harper: Points O/U 19.5 | 21% |
| Dylan Harper: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 21% |
| Devin Vassell: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 21% |
| Naji Marshall: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 21% |
| Daniel Gafford: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 21% |
| Devin Vassell: Points O/U 14.5 | 20% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 13.5 | 20% |
| 1H O/U 126.5 | 20% |
| Spread -24.5 | 19% |
| Naji Marshall: Points O/U 19.5 | 19% |
| De'Aaron Fox: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 18% |
| Mavericks O/U 120.5 | 18% |
| Max Christie: Points O/U 14.5 | 18% |
| Stephon Castle: Assists O/U 7.5 | 17% |
| Kyrie Irving: Points O/U 24.5 | 17% |
| Naji Marshall: Assists O/U 5.5 | 17% |
| 1H O/U 128.5 | 17% |
| 1H O/U 130.5 | 17% |
| Spread -26.5 | 16% |
| De'Aaron Fox: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 16% |
| Devin Vassell: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 16% |
| Dylan Harper: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 16% |
| 1H O/U 132.5 | 16% |
| P.J. Washington: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 16% |
| Spread -2.5 | 14% |
| Spread -1.5 | 14% |
| De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 19.5 | 14% |
| De'Aaron Fox: Assists O/U 7.5 | 14% |
| Dylan Harper: Assists O/U 5.5 | 14% |
| Stephon Castle: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 14% |
| Kyrie Irving: Assists O/U 5.5 | 14% |
| Kyrie Irving: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 14% |
| 1H O/U 134.5 | 14% |
| Spread -28.5 | 13% |
| Stephon Castle: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 13% |
| Devin Vassell: Assists O/U 3.5 | 13% |
| Devin Vassell: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 13% |
| Kyrie Irving: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 13% |
| P.J. Washington: Points O/U 19.5 | 13% |
| Max Christie: Assists O/U 3.5 | 13% |
| Spread -3.5 | 12% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 34.5 | 12% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 39.5 | 12% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 15.5 | 12% |
| Kyrie Irving: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 12% |
| Daniel Gafford: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 12% |
| Max Christie: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 12% |
| Stephon Castle: Points O/U 29.5 | 11% |
| Stephon Castle: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 11% |
| De'Aaron Fox: Assists O/U 9.5 | 11% |
| Stephon Castle: Assists O/U 9.5 | 11% |
| Kyrie Irving: Points O/U 29.5 | 11% |
| Naji Marshall: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 11% |
| Naji Marshall: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 11% |
| Spread -30.5 | 10% |
| Dylan Harper: Points O/U 24.5 | 10% |
| Dylan Harper: Points O/U 29.5 | 10% |
| Stephon Castle: Points O/U 24.5 | 10% |
| Dylan Harper: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 10% |
| Devin Vassell: Points O/U 24.5 | 10% |
| Victor Wembanyama: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 10% |
| Max Christie: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 10% |
| P.J. Washington: Assists O/U 3.5 | 10% |
| Spread -5.5 | 9% |
| Victor Wembanyama: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 9% |
| Naji Marshall: Points O/U 24.5 | 9% |
| Daniel Gafford: Points O/U 14.5 | 9% |
| Spread -7.5 | 8% |
| Spread -32.5 | 8% |
| Devin Vassell: Points O/U 19.5 | 8% |
| Dylan Harper: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 8% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Assists O/U 5.5 | 8% |
| De'Aaron Fox: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 8% |
| Devin Vassell: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 8% |
| Naji Marshall: Assists O/U 7.5 | 8% |
| Max Christie: Points O/U 19.5 | 8% |
| P.J. Washington: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 8% |
| Spread -34.5 | 7% |
| Stephon Castle: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 7% |
| Stephon Castle: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 7% |
| P.J. Washington: Points O/U 24.5 | 7% |
| P.J. Washington: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 7% |
| De'Aaron Fox: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 6% |
| Devin Vassell: Assists O/U 5.5 | 6% |
| Dylan Harper: Assists O/U 7.5 | 6% |
| De'Aaron Fox: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 6% |
| Dylan Harper: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 6% |
| Naji Marshall: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 6% |
| Kyrie Irving: Assists O/U 7.5 | 6% |
| Max Christie: Assists O/U 5.5 | 6% |
| P.J. Washington: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 6% |
| Spread -11.5 | 5% |
| Spread -13.5 | 5% |
| Spread -9.5 | 5% |
| Spread -36.5 | 5% |
| De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 24.5 | 5% |
| Devin Vassell: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 5% |
| Kyrie Irving: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 5% |
| Max Christie: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 5% |
| Spread -19.5 | 3% |
| Spread -15.5 | 3% |
| Spread -17.5 | 2% |
Market context
Spurs vs. Mavericks. The market is currently pricing the outcome at 84% YES, meaning crowd-implied probability sits at that level. Settlement is scheduled for 2026-10-25T00:00:00Z. Unlike a sportsbook, the price you see is set by buyers and sellers competing in a live order book — there is no house edge or bookmaker margin to fade.
Sports outcome markets resolve from official league data once the contest finishes. Pricing typically tightens through the warm-up window as line-ups, weather, and starting-pitcher data become public, then moves on goals or runs in real time.
Watch for the underlying catalysts that move this category: each official announcement, dataset release, or scheduled milestone generally produces a step change in the implied probability. Trades execute instantly on Polygon, and shares pay $1 each at resolution if your side wins.
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $405K.
Methodology
Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Spurs vs. Mavericks plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.
Resolution & payout
Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.
Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- Can prediction markets influence election outcomes?
- Markets reflect expectations rather than create them. Studies show public-facing markets can anchor expectations, but don't influence the underlying outcome. Political markets are information, not advocacy.
- Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?
- Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Trump Prediction route into the same order book at 0% fees.
- How fast do political markets react to news?
- High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.
- Why do Polymarket and Kalshi differ on elections?
- Kalshi must follow CFTC compliance — strict definitions, clear resolution sources, US citizens only with KYC. Polymarket operates globally without CFTC oversight — deeper liquidity, but also higher regulatory risk.
- Are UK election prediction markets available from the UK?
- Yes. Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer UKGC-regulated UK election markets (seat counts, party share, constituency results). Polymarket also lists UK election contracts with deeper global liquidity. Betfair winnings are typically tax-free for UK individuals; Polymarket profits are subject to HMRC CGT.
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