Market statistics
- Total volume
- $901K
- 24h volume
- $653K
- Liquidity
- $2.7M
- Open interest
- $558K
Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
28% | 72% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
28% | 72% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Available prediction outcomes (3)
Sorted by descending live probability. Click any outcome to trade it on PolyGram.
Market context
This event is for the upcoming La Liga game, scheduled for Wednesday, May 13, 2026 between Deportivo Alavés and FC Barcelona.
Wikipedia Context
-
Deportivo AlavésDeportivo Alavés, S.A.D., usually known as Alavés, is a Spanish football club based in Vitoria-Gasteiz, Álava, in the autonomous community of the Basque Country. Founded on 23 January 1921 as Sport Friends Club, the club competes in La Liga, the top tier of Spanish football.
-
Deportivo Alavés Gloriosas
Deportivo Alavés Gloriosas is a Spanish women's football team from Vitoria-Gasteiz, Álava, Basque Country, currently playing in the Segunda Federación. It is the women's section of Deportivo Alavés.
-
Deportivo Alavés B
Deportivo Alavés B, S.A.D., usually known as Alavés B, is a Spanish football team based in Vitoria-Gasteiz, in the autonomous community of Basque Country. Founded in 1959 it is the reserve team of Deportivo Alavés, and currently plays in Segunda Federación – Group 2, holding home matches at Instalaciones de Ibaia-José Luis Compañon, the club's training facil
-
Deportivo Alavés C
Deportivo Alavés C, S.A.D., usually known as Alavés C, is a Spanish football team based in Vitoria-Gasteiz, in the autonomous community of Basque Country. Founded in 1980 as AD Zaldiaran, they are the second reserve team of Deportivo Alavés, and play in the Tercera Federación – Group 4.
Methodology
Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Deportivo Alavés vs. FC Barcelona plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.
Resolution & payout
Resolution source: This market settles from the official publication at https://www.laliga.com/. A proposer submits the result to the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon, the two-hour challenge window opens, and the smart contract pays out in USDC.
Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.
Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.
FAQ
- How accurate are political prediction markets?
- Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.
- What resolution source is used for elections?
- Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.
- Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?
- Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like PolyGram route into the same order book at 0% fees.
- How fast do political markets react to news?
- High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.
- Why do Polymarket and Kalshi differ on elections?
- Kalshi must follow CFTC compliance — strict definitions, clear resolution sources, US citizens only with KYC. Polymarket operates globally without CFTC oversight — deeper liquidity, but also higher regulatory risk.
Trade Deportivo Alavés vs. FC Barcelona on PolyGram
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
Open live market →