LoL: Disguised vs Dignitas (BO3) - LCS Regular Season

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Disguised and Dignitas are scheduled to compete in a League of Legends best-of-three match during the LCS Regular Season on 9 May at 7:00 PM ET. The 0% implied probability reflects either extreme uncertainty about the match occurring or significant technical issues with market pricing, as both teams are active LCS franchises with established rosters and scheduled fixtures. This pricing is unusual for a match between two established organisations with no reported cancellations or forfeitures.

Historical precedent suggests LCS matches rarely fail to complete. Since the league's restructuring in 2021, cancellations have been limited to exceptional circumstances such as player illness outbreaks or severe technical infrastructure failures. The most comparable recent instances involved brief delays rather than full cancellations, typically resolved within the same broadcast window. This historical pattern indicates the 0% probability is likely a data anomaly rather than reflecting genuine match risk.

Traders should monitor official LCS announcements and team social media for any roster changes, player health issues, or scheduling conflicts in the week preceding 9 May. The settlement window closes 10 May at 04:00 UTC, providing a 21-hour buffer beyond the scheduled match time. Key catalysts include confirmation of both teams' participation in the broadcast schedule from Riot Games' official fixture list and any emergency announcements from either organisation. Recent LCS broadcasts have proceeded on schedule despite minor technical hiccups, suggesting operational stability for this fixture.

Methodology

This page tracks LoL: Disguised vs Dignitas (BO3) - LCS Regular Season across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. PolyGram routes every trade through to Polymarket — at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.