How accurate are political prediction markets?

Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.

What resolution source is used for elections?

Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.

Can prediction markets influence election outcomes?

Markets reflect expectations rather than create them. Studies show public-facing markets can anchor expectations, but don't influence the underlying outcome. Political markets are information, not advocacy.

How fast do political markets react to news?

High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.

Are UK election prediction markets available from the UK?

Yes. Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer UKGC-regulated UK election markets (seat counts, party share, constituency results). Polymarket also lists UK election contracts with deeper global liquidity. Betfair winnings are typically tax-free for UK individuals; Polymarket profits are subject to HMRC CGT.

Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers | Trump Prediction — 75% Yes

Name: Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers
Start: 2026-08-05T13:00:35.000Z
End: 2026-08-18T22:40:00.000Z

Platform comparison

Platform	YES odds	NO odds	Fee	KYC	Settlement
Polymarket (via Trump Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker)	75%	25%	0% (USDC on-chain)	No-KYC up to $1,500	USDC, auto via UMA oracle	Live odds →
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com	75%	25%	0%	Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU	USDC, on-chain	Live odds →
Kalshi kalshi.com	—	—	Up to 7% per trade	US-only, KYC required	USD	Live odds →
Betfair Exchange betfair.com	—	—	2-5% commission	Full KYC from first trade	GBP / EUR	Live odds →
Manifold Markets manifold.markets	—	—	Play-money (mana)	None — play-money	Mana (no cash-out)	Live odds →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

Outcome	Probability
1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5	75%
1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5	61%
O/U 7.5	56%
NRFI	49%
O/U 8.5	48%
1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5	48%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers	45%
Spread -1.5	39%
O/U 9.5	37%
1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5	36%
1st 5 Innings Spread -1.5	35%
Spread -1.5	33%
Spread -2.5	28%
1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5	27%
1st 5 Innings Spread -1.5	26%
Spread -2.5	23%
Extra Innings	11%

Market context

Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers — current market-implied probability: 75%. In the upcoming MLB game between the Cleveland Guardians and Detroit Tigers, scheduled for August 11 at 6:40PM ET: This market will resolve to "Cleveland Guardians" if the Cleveland Guardians win the…

Live Data & Statistics

The Polymarket order book prices 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 at 75% for "Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers".

1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 75% Other 25%

Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $281K.

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

How accurate are political prediction markets?: Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.
What resolution source is used for elections?: Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.
Can prediction markets influence election outcomes?: Markets reflect expectations rather than create them. Studies show public-facing markets can anchor expectations, but don't influence the underlying outcome. Political markets are information, not advocacy.
How fast do political markets react to news?: High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.
Are UK election prediction markets available from the UK?: Yes. Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer UKGC-regulated UK election markets (seat counts, party share, constituency results). Polymarket also lists UK election contracts with deeper global liquidity. Betfair winnings are typically tax-free for UK individuals; Polymarket profits are subject to HMRC CGT.

Sarah MitchellPolitical Markets Writerand

James WilliamsPrediction Market Analyst

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Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers

Platform comparison

Outcome probabilities

Market context

Live Data & Statistics

Methodology

Resolution & payout

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Trade Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers on Trump Prediction

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