Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PolyGram Pick polygram.ink |
68% | 32% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open on PolyGram → |
Polymarket polymarket.com |
68% | 32% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open on PolyGram → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open on PolyGram → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open on PolyGram → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open on PolyGram → |
Live odds for Polymarket-based markets come from the Polygon order book. Non-Polymarket venues show attributes only; clicking any row opens the market on PolyGram.
Active sub-markets
| Houston Astros vs. Chicago Cubs | 68% YES | 33% NO |
| NRFI | 100% YES | 1% NO |
| Spread -1.5 | 18% YES | 82% NO |
| O/U 7.5 | 61% YES | 39% NO |
| Spread -1.5 | 49% YES | 51% NO |
| Spread -2.5 | 14% YES | 86% NO |
Market context
The Houston Astros face the Chicago Cubs in a regular-season MLB matchup on 23 May at 2:20 PM ET. The market currently implies a 44% probability of an Astros victory, suggesting modest favouring of the Cubs at home or slight uncertainty around roster availability and pitching matchups.
Historical performance between these franchises provides limited predictive power for individual games, though the Astros have maintained stronger regular-season records in recent seasons. The Cubs' home-field advantage at Wrigley Field traditionally carries weight in single-game outcomes, yet this must be weighed against Houston's consistent competitive positioning within the AL West. Comparable regular-season matchups between teams of similar strength typically settle near 50-50 odds absent injury disruptions or significant pitching disparities.
Traders should monitor roster updates through to game time, particularly injury reports affecting starting pitchers and key position players. Weather conditions at Wrigley—wind direction and temperature significantly influence ball carry in that stadium—warrant attention in the days preceding the fixture. Recent form matters: checking both teams' performance in their preceding five games and any relevant series outcomes will clarify whether the current 44% reflects genuine analytical consensus or market inefficiency. The settlement window extends to 30 May, allowing for postponement resolution should weather or scheduling issues arise.
Methodology
Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Houston Astros vs. Chicago Cubs plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.
Resolution & payout
Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.
Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.
Trade Houston Astros vs. Chicago Cubs on PolyGram
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