Nashville SC vs. New York City FC

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Nashville SC will travel to New York City FC for an MLS regular-season match on Saturday, 23 May 2026. The 25 per cent implied probability for a Nashville victory reflects the away-side disadvantage and recent form disparities between the two clubs. NYC FC has historically maintained stronger home records in the Eastern Conference, whilst Nashville's road performance has been inconsistent across recent seasons.

Historical MLS data shows that away teams in regular-season fixtures typically win between 20 and 28 per cent of matches, depending on the strength differential between opponents. Nashville's current squad composition and injury status relative to NYC FC's roster depth will materially affect outcome probabilities. The market appears to be pricing in Nashville as the underdog based on venue advantage alone, without yet incorporating late-team news or tactical adjustments announced closer to kick-off.

Traders should monitor official team lineups released 24 to 48 hours before the fixture, as absences of key players—particularly Nashville's attacking midfielders or NYC FC's defensive personnel—could shift win probabilities substantially. Weather conditions in New York on match day and any recent form swings in either side's preceding fixtures will also influence closing odds. MLS official announcements regarding squad availability typically arrive via club social media channels and the league's injury report, published mid-week before Saturday fixtures.

Methodology

This page tracks Nashville SC vs. New York City FC across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. PolyGram routes every trade through to Polymarket — at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.