Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Trump Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| P.J. Washington: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Kyrie Irving: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Race to 10 | 98% |
| O/U 202.5 | 95% |
| O/U 204.5 | 94% |
| 1H O/U 99.5 | 94% |
| 1H O/U 95.5 | 93% |
| 1H O/U 97.5 | 93% |
| O/U 206.5 | 92% |
| O/U 208.5 | 91% |
| 1H O/U 101.5 | 90% |
| O/U 210.5 | 88% |
| 1H O/U 103.5 | 87% |
| 1H O/U 105.5 | 86% |
| O/U 200.5 | 85% |
| O/U 212.5 | 85% |
| O/U 214.5 | 83% |
| 1H O/U 107.5 | 81% |
| P.J. Washington: Points O/U 9.5 | 80% |
| O/U 216.5 | 78% |
| 1H O/U 109.5 | 75% |
| O/U 218.5 | 73% |
| O/U 198.5 | 71% |
| O/U 220.5 | 70% |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 24.5 | 70% |
| 1H O/U 111.5 | 68% |
| Isaiah Hartenstein: Points O/U 9.5 | 65% |
| O/U 222.5 | 64% |
| 1H O/U 113.5 | 62% |
| Thunder vs. Mavericks | 59% |
| O/U 224.5 | 59% |
| Cooper Flagg: Points O/U 24.5 | 59% |
| Spread -1.5 | 56% |
| 1H Moneyline | 56% |
| O/U 226.5 | 54% |
| Kenrich Williams: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 54% |
| Race to 30 | 53% |
| Spread -2.5 | 53% |
| 1H O/U 115.5 | 53% |
| Max Christie: Points O/U 14.5 | 52% |
| Kyrie Irving: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 52% |
| O/U 228.5 | 51% |
| Isaiah Hartenstein: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 51% |
| Ajay Mitchell: Assists O/U 3.5 | 51% |
| Kenrich Williams: Points O/U 4.5 | 51% |
| Aday Mara: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 51% |
| Cooper Flagg: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 51% |
| Isaiah Hartenstein: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 51% |
| Kenrich Williams: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 51% |
| Cooper Flagg: Assists O/U 1.5 | 51% |
| Cooper Flagg: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 51% |
| Cooper Flagg: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 51% |
| Cooper Flagg: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 51% |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 51% |
| Kyrie Irving: Points O/U 19.5 | 51% |
| Kyrie Irving: Steals O/U 0.5 | 51% |
| Ajay Mitchell: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 51% |
| Team to Score First | 50% |
| Odd/Even Score | 50% |
| Overtime? | 50% |
| Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 31.5 | 50% |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Assists O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -11.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -15.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -19.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -12.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| Kyrie Irving: Points O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Ajay Mitchell: Points O/U 18.5 | 50% |
| P.J. Washington: Points O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Cooper Flagg: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| P.J. Washington: Rebounds O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Kyrie Irving: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Ajay Mitchell: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Cooper Flagg: Assists O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Cooper Flagg: Points O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 44.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 46.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 48.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 50.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 52.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 54.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 56.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 58.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 50.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 52.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 54.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 56.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 58.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 53.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 55.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 57.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 59.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 61.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 63.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 65.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 57.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 55.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 59.5 | 50% |
| Mavericks O/U 100.5 | 50% |
| Thunder O/U 105.5 | 50% |
| Thunder 1H O/U 53.5 | 50% |
| Mavericks 1H O/U 50.5 | 50% |
| Thunder O/U 107.5 | 50% |
| Mavericks O/U 102.5 | 50% |
| Mavericks 1H O/U 52.5 | 50% |
| Thunder 1H O/U 55.5 | 50% |
| Thunder O/U 109.5 | 50% |
| Mavericks O/U 104.5 | 50% |
| Thunder O/U 111.5 | 50% |
| Mavericks O/U 106.5 | 50% |
| Mavericks 1H O/U 54.5 | 50% |
| Thunder O/U 113.5 | 50% |
| Mavericks O/U 108.5 | 50% |
| Thunder O/U 115.5 | 50% |
| Thunder 1H O/U 59.5 | 50% |
| Mavericks 1H O/U 56.5 | 50% |
| Mavericks O/U 110.5 | 50% |
| Thunder 1H O/U 57.5 | 50% |
| Thunder O/U 117.5 | 50% |
| Thunder 1H O/U 61.5 | 50% |
| Mavericks O/U 112.5 | 50% |
| Mavericks 2H O/U 60.5 | 50% |
| Mavericks 1H O/U 58.5 | 50% |
| Thunder O/U 119.5 | 50% |
| Mavericks O/U 114.5 | 50% |
| Thunder O/U 121.5 | 50% |
| Mavericks O/U 116.5 | 50% |
| Thunder O/U 123.5 | 50% |
| Mavericks O/U 118.5 | 50% |
| Thunder O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| Mavericks O/U 122.5 | 50% |
| Mavericks O/U 120.5 | 50% |
| Mavericks O/U 124.5 | 50% |
| Mavericks 2H O/U 52.5 | 50% |
| Mavericks 2H O/U 54.5 | 50% |
| Mavericks 2H O/U 56.5 | 50% |
| Mavericks 2H O/U 58.5 | 50% |
| Thunder 2H O/U 54.5 | 50% |
| Thunder 2H O/U 56.5 | 50% |
| Thunder 2H O/U 58.5 | 50% |
| Thunder 2H O/U 60.5 | 50% |
| Thunder 2H O/U 62.5 | 50% |
| Aday Mara: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Aday Mara: Points O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Aday Mara: Points O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Cooper Flagg: Points O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Cooper Flagg: Points O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Cooper Flagg: Points O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Cooper Flagg: Points O/U 39.5 | 50% |
| Daniel Gafford: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Daniel Gafford: Points O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Isaiah Hartenstein: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Isaiah Hartenstein: Points O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Jared McCain: Points O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Jared McCain: Points O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Jared McCain: Points O/U 34.5 | 50% |
| Max Christie: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Max Christie: Points O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| P.J. Washington: Points O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| P.J. Washington: Points O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| P.J. Washington: Points O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Isaiah Hartenstein: Points O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Aday Mara: Points O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Kenrich Williams: Points O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Kenrich Williams: Points O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 44.5 | 50% |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 49.5 | 50% |
| Aday Mara: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Aday Mara: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Aday Mara: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| Aday Mara: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Aday Mara: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Cooper Flagg: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Cooper Flagg: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Cooper Flagg: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Cooper Flagg: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Cooper Flagg: Rebounds O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Daniel Gafford: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Daniel Gafford: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Daniel Gafford: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Daniel Gafford: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| Daniel Gafford: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Daniel Gafford: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Daniel Gafford: Rebounds O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Daniel Gafford: Rebounds O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| Isaiah Hartenstein: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Isaiah Hartenstein: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Isaiah Hartenstein: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| Isaiah Hartenstein: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Isaiah Hartenstein: Rebounds O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Isaiah Hartenstein: Rebounds O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| Jared McCain: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Jared McCain: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Jared McCain: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Kenrich Williams: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Kenrich Williams: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Kenrich Williams: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| Kenrich Williams: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Max Christie: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Max Christie: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Max Christie: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Max Christie: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| P.J. Washington: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| P.J. Washington: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| P.J. Washington: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| P.J. Washington: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| P.J. Washington: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| P.J. Washington: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| P.J. Washington: Rebounds O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Cooper Flagg: Assists O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Cooper Flagg: Assists O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Cooper Flagg: Assists O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| Cooper Flagg: Assists O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Cooper Flagg: Assists O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Assists O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Assists O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Assists O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Assists O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Assists O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Assists O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Cooper Flagg: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Jared McCain: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Jared McCain: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Jared McCain: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Jared McCain: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Jared McCain: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Jared McCain: 3-Pointers Made O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Jared McCain: 3-Pointers Made O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Jared McCain: 3-Pointers Made O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| Max Christie: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Max Christie: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Max Christie: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Max Christie: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Max Christie: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Max Christie: 3-Pointers Made O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| P.J. Washington: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| P.J. Washington: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| P.J. Washington: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| P.J. Washington: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| P.J. Washington: 3-Pointers Made O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: 3-Pointers Made O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Cooper Flagg: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Cooper Flagg: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Cooper Flagg: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Aday Mara: Blocks O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Aday Mara: Blocks O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Aday Mara: Blocks O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Cooper Flagg: Blocks O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Cooper Flagg: Blocks O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Cooper Flagg: Blocks O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Daniel Gafford: Blocks O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Daniel Gafford: Blocks O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Daniel Gafford: Blocks O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| P.J. Washington: Blocks O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| P.J. Washington: Blocks O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| P.J. Washington: Blocks O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Aday Mara: Rebounds O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Ajay Mitchell: Points O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Cooper Flagg: Points O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| P.J. Washington: Points O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Cooper Flagg: Rebounds O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Kyrie Irving: Points O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Kyrie Irving: Points O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Kyrie Irving: Points O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Kyrie Irving: Points O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Kyrie Irving: Points O/U 34.5 | 50% |
| Max Christie: Points O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Jared McCain: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| Kenrich Williams: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Kyrie Irving: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Kyrie Irving: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Kyrie Irving: Assists O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Kyrie Irving: Assists O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Max Christie: Assists O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Max Christie: Assists O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Max Christie: Assists O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| P.J. Washington: Assists O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| P.J. Washington: Assists O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Kyrie Irving: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Kyrie Irving: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Kyrie Irving: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Kyrie Irving: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Kyrie Irving: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Ajay Mitchell: Points O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Ajay Mitchell: Points O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Ajay Mitchell: Points O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Ajay Mitchell: Points O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Ajay Mitchell: Points O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Ajay Mitchell: Points O/U 34.5 | 50% |
| Bennett Stirtz: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Bennett Stirtz: Points O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Bennett Stirtz: Points O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Cooper Flagg: Points O/U 44.5 | 50% |
| Jaylin Williams: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Jaylin Williams: Points O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Jaylin Williams: Points O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Kenrich Williams: Points O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Kyrie Irving: Points O/U 39.5 | 50% |
| Ajay Mitchell: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Ajay Mitchell: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| Jaylin Williams: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Jaylin Williams: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Jaylin Williams: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Jaylin Williams: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| Jaylin Williams: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Jaylin Williams: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Kyrie Irving: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| Kyrie Irving: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Ajay Mitchell: Assists O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Ajay Mitchell: Assists O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Ajay Mitchell: Assists O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| Ajay Mitchell: Assists O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Isaiah Hartenstein: Assists O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Isaiah Hartenstein: Assists O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Isaiah Hartenstein: Assists O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Isaiah Hartenstein: Assists O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| Kyrie Irving: Assists O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| Kyrie Irving: Assists O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Ajay Mitchell: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Ajay Mitchell: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Ajay Mitchell: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Ajay Mitchell: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Jaylin Williams: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Jaylin Williams: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Jaylin Williams: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Kenrich Williams: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Kenrich Williams: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Kyrie Irving: 3-Pointers Made O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Kyrie Irving: 3-Pointers Made O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Ajay Mitchell: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Ajay Mitchell: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Ajay Mitchell: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Spread -34.5 | 49% |
| Kyrie Irving: Assists O/U 3.5 | 49% |
| Spread -4.5 | 47% |
| 1H O/U 117.5 | 47% |
| Jared McCain: Points O/U 9.5 | 47% |
| O/U 230.5 | 44% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 44% |
| Spread -5.5 | 43% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 43% |
| Spread -6.5 | 40% |
| O/U 232.5 | 40% |
| Spread -1.5 | 38% |
| 1H O/U 119.5 | 38% |
| Spread -7.5 | 37% |
| O/U 234.5 | 35% |
| Spread -3.5 | 34% |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 29.5 | 33% |
| Spread -8.5 | 32% |
| O/U 236.5 | 31% |
| 1H O/U 121.5 | 30% |
| Spread -9.5 | 29% |
| Cooper Flagg: Points O/U 29.5 | 28% |
| Jared McCain: Points O/U 19.5 | 28% |
| Spread -5.5 | 27% |
| O/U 238.5 | 27% |
| Spread -10.5 | 26% |
| Spread -11.5 | 24% |
| O/U 240.5 | 24% |
| 1H O/U 123.5 | 24% |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 34.5 | 24% |
| Isaiah Hartenstein: Points O/U 14.5 | 23% |
| Spread -12.5 | 21% |
| Spread -7.5 | 20% |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 39.5 | 20% |
| Cooper Flagg: Points O/U 34.5 | 19% |
| Spread -14.5 | 18% |
| Daniel Gafford: Points O/U 14.5 | 18% |
| Spread -9.5 | 17% |
| 1H O/U 125.5 | 17% |
| Spread -16.5 | 14% |
| Spread -11.5 | 13% |
| 1H O/U 127.5 | 13% |
| Jared McCain: Points O/U 24.5 | 13% |
| Spread -18.5 | 12% |
| Daniel Gafford: Points O/U 19.5 | 11% |
| Spread -13.5 | 10% |
| Spread -20.5 | 10% |
| O/U 250.5 | 10% |
| Max Christie: Points O/U 19.5 | 10% |
| O/U 252.5 | 8% |
| Spread -15.5 | 7% |
| Spread -22.5 | 7% |
| Spread -17.5 | 6% |
| Spread -24.5 | 6% |
| O/U 254.5 | 6% |
| Spread -26.5 | 5% |
| Spread -19.5 | 4% |
| Spread -28.5 | 4% |
| Spread -21.5 | 3% |
| Spread -30.5 | 3% |
| Spread -32.5 | 3% |
| Race to 20 | 2% |
Market context
The Thunder vs. Mavericks prediction market currently prices this outcome at 100% YES. In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for October 28 at 9:30PM ET: If the Thunder win, the market will resolve to "Thunder". If the Mavericks win, the market will resolve to "Mavericks". If the game is …
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $2.3M.
Methodology
Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Thunder vs. Mavericks plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.
Resolution & payout
Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.
Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- What resolution source is used for elections?
- Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.
- Can prediction markets influence election outcomes?
- Markets reflect expectations rather than create them. Studies show public-facing markets can anchor expectations, but don't influence the underlying outcome. Political markets are information, not advocacy.
- Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?
- Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Trump Prediction route into the same order book at 0% fees.
- How fast do political markets react to news?
- High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.
- Are UK election prediction markets available from the UK?
- Yes. Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer UKGC-regulated UK election markets (seat counts, party share, constituency results). Polymarket also lists UK election contracts with deeper global liquidity. Betfair winnings are typically tax-free for UK individuals; Polymarket profits are subject to HMRC CGT.
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