Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Trump Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
96% | 4% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
96% | 4% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 195.5 | 96% |
| O/U 193.5 | 96% |
| O/U 197.5 | 94% |
| O/U 199.5 | 92% |
| O/U 201.5 | 89% |
| O/U 203.5 | 87% |
| O/U 205.5 | 84% |
| O/U 207.5 | 82% |
| Franz Wagner: Assists O/U 3.5 | 82% |
| Anthony Black: Assists O/U 1.5 | 81% |
| De'Andre Hunter: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 80% |
| Desmond Bane: Points O/U 9.5 | 79% |
| O/U 209.5 | 78% |
| Jase Richardson: Points O/U 4.5 | 77% |
| Desmond Bane: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 77% |
| Franz Wagner: Points O/U 14.5 | 76% |
| Desmond Bane: Assists O/U 1.5 | 76% |
| 1H O/U 108.5 | 76% |
| 1H O/U 106.5 | 76% |
| 1H O/U 104.5 | 76% |
| 1H O/U 102.5 | 76% |
| O/U 211.5 | 74% |
| Desmond Bane: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 74% |
| Tristan da Silva: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 73% |
| Tristan da Silva: Points O/U 9.5 | 72% |
| Jase Richardson: Assists O/U 1.5 | 72% |
| O/U 213.5 | 71% |
| Darius Acuff Jr.: Assists O/U 3.5 | 71% |
| Anthony Black: Points O/U 9.5 | 70% |
| Zach LaVine: Points O/U 9.5 | 70% |
| Magic vs. Kings | 69% |
| Darius Acuff Jr.: Points O/U 19.5 | 69% |
| Jase Richardson: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 69% |
| Zach LaVine: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 69% |
| Darius Acuff Jr.: Points O/U 14.5 | 67% |
| Franz Wagner: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 67% |
| O/U 215.5 | 66% |
| Spread -1.5 | 66% |
| Jamal Cain: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 66% |
| Franz Wagner: Assists O/U 5.5 | 66% |
| Darius Acuff Jr.: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 65% |
| Wendell Carter Jr.: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 64% |
| O/U 217.5 | 63% |
| Spread -2.5 | 63% |
| Desmond Bane: Points O/U 14.5 | 63% |
| Anthony Black: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 63% |
| 1H Moneyline | 63% |
| Wendell Carter Jr.: Points O/U 9.5 | 62% |
| Zach LaVine: Points O/U 14.5 | 62% |
| Wendell Carter Jr.: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 62% |
| Zach LaVine: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 62% |
| Darius Acuff Jr.: Assists O/U 5.5 | 62% |
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 62% |
| 1H O/U 110.5 | 62% |
| De'Andre Hunter: Points O/U 9.5 | 61% |
| Spread -3.5 | 60% |
| De'Andre Hunter: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 60% |
| O/U 219.5 | 59% |
| Franz Wagner: Points O/U 19.5 | 58% |
| 1Q O/U 55.5 | 58% |
| Kings O/U 106.5 | 58% |
| Magic O/U 112.5 | 58% |
| Desmond Bane: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 57% |
| Spread -4.5 | 56% |
| Zach LaVine: Assists O/U 1.5 | 56% |
| 1H O/U 112.5 | 56% |
| O/U 221.5 | 55% |
| Anthony Black: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 55% |
| Tristan da Silva: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 55% |
| Kings O/U 102.5 | 55% |
| Kings O/U 100.5 | 55% |
| Kings O/U 98.5 | 55% |
| Spread -5.5 | 54% |
| Anthony Black: Points O/U 14.5 | 54% |
| De'Andre Hunter: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 54% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 54% |
| Kings 1H O/U 53.5 | 54% |
| Magic 1H O/U 56.5 | 54% |
| 1Q O/U 53.5 | 54% |
| Kings O/U 104.5 | 54% |
| Magic O/U 110.5 | 54% |
| Kings 1H O/U 51.5 | 54% |
| Magic 1H O/U 54.5 | 54% |
| 1Q O/U 51.5 | 54% |
| Magic O/U 108.5 | 54% |
| 1Q O/U 49.5 | 54% |
| Magic O/U 106.5 | 54% |
| 1Q O/U 47.5 | 54% |
| Magic O/U 104.5 | 54% |
| 1Q O/U 45.5 | 54% |
| Kings O/U 96.5 | 54% |
| Magic O/U 102.5 | 54% |
| Darius Acuff Jr.: Points O/U 9.5 | 53% |
| Franz Wagner: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 53% |
| Tristan da Silva: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 53% |
| Wendell Carter Jr.: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 53% |
| 2Q O/U 54.5 | 53% |
| 2Q O/U 52.5 | 53% |
| Franz Wagner: Points O/U 9.5 | 52% |
| Franz Wagner: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 52% |
| De'Andre Hunter: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 52% |
| Darius Acuff Jr.: Assists O/U 1.5 | 52% |
| O/U 222.5 | 52% |
| Desmond Bane: Points O/U 19.5 | 51% |
| Wendell Carter Jr.: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 51% |
| Franz Wagner: Assists O/U 1.5 | 51% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 51% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 51% |
| 2Q O/U 56.5 | 51% |
| Magic O/U 114.5 | 51% |
| Magic 1H O/U 58.5 | 51% |
| Team to Score First | 51% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 51% |
| Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| Wendell Carter Jr.: Assists O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Tristan da Silva: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 57.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 54.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 52.5 | 50% |
| Kings O/U 108.5 | 50% |
| Kings 1H O/U 55.5 | 50% |
| Odd/Even Score | 50% |
| Overtime? | 50% |
| Race to 10 | 50% |
| Race to 20 | 50% |
| Race to 30 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 52.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 50.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 56.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 54.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 50.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 118.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 58.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 48.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 60.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| O/U 223.5 | 49% |
| Darius Acuff Jr.: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 49% |
| Darius Acuff Jr.: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| Tristan da Silva: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 49% |
| Zach LaVine: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 49% |
| Darius Acuff Jr.: Steals O/U 0.5 | 49% |
| 1H O/U 114.5 | 49% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 49% |
| Jamal Cain: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 48% |
| Darius Acuff Jr.: Points O/U 24.5 | 47% |
| Darius Acuff Jr.: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 47% |
| Tristan da Silva: Steals O/U 2.5 | 47% |
| 2Q O/U 58.5 | 47% |
| Kings 1H O/U 57.5 | 47% |
| Magic 1H O/U 60.5 | 47% |
| 1Q O/U 61.5 | 47% |
| 2Q O/U 60.5 | 47% |
| Magic O/U 118.5 | 47% |
| Kings 1H O/U 59.5 | 47% |
| Magic 1H O/U 62.5 | 47% |
| 1Q O/U 63.5 | 47% |
| 1Q O/U 65.5 | 47% |
| 1Q O/U 67.5 | 47% |
| Magic O/U 124.5 | 47% |
| Zach LaVine: Points O/U 19.5 | 46% |
| Darius Acuff Jr.: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 46% |
| Tristan da Silva: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 46% |
| Franz Wagner: Assists O/U 7.5 | 46% |
| Zach LaVine: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 46% |
| Kings O/U 112.5 | 46% |
| Kings O/U 114.5 | 46% |
| Magic O/U 120.5 | 46% |
| Kings O/U 116.5 | 46% |
| Spread -7.5 | 45% |
| O/U 225.5 | 45% |
| Franz Wagner: Points O/U 39.5 | 45% |
| Wendell Carter Jr.: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 45% |
| Magic O/U 122.5 | 45% |
| Kings O/U 118.5 | 45% |
| Tristan da Silva: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 44% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 44% |
| Kings O/U 110.5 | 44% |
| Jamal Cain: Points O/U 4.5 | 43% |
| Darius Acuff Jr.: Assists O/U 7.5 | 43% |
| Anthony Black: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 43% |
| 1H O/U 116.5 | 43% |
| Magic O/U 116.5 | 43% |
| Spread -8.5 | 42% |
| Franz Wagner: Points O/U 24.5 | 42% |
| De'Andre Hunter: Points O/U 14.5 | 42% |
| O/U 227.5 | 41% |
| Anthony Black: Assists O/U 3.5 | 41% |
| Wendell Carter Jr.: Points O/U 14.5 | 41% |
| Anthony Black: Steals O/U 0.5 | 41% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 41% |
| 1Q O/U 59.5 | 41% |
| Jase Richardson: Points O/U 9.5 | 40% |
| Franz Wagner: Steals O/U 0.5 | 40% |
| Spread -9.5 | 39% |
| Tristan da Silva: Points O/U 14.5 | 39% |
| Anthony Black: Assists O/U 5.5 | 39% |
| Desmond Bane: Assists O/U 3.5 | 39% |
| Desmond Bane: Steals O/U 0.5 | 39% |
| 2Q Spread -0.5 | 39% |
| Zach LaVine: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 38% |
| Franz Wagner: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 38% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 38% |
| Jase Richardson: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 37% |
| Darius Acuff Jr.: Steals O/U 1.5 | 37% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 37% |
| O/U 229.5 | 36% |
| Spread -10.5 | 35% |
| Anthony Black: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 34% |
| Tristan da Silva: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 34% |
| Wendell Carter Jr.: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 34% |
| 1H Spread -12.5 | 34% |
| Spread -11.5 | 33% |
| Darius Acuff Jr.: Points O/U 23.5 | 33% |
| Desmond Bane: Assists O/U 2.5 | 33% |
| O/U 231.5 | 32% |
| Darius Acuff Jr.: Assists O/U 6.5 | 32% |
| Anthony Black: Assists O/U 4.5 | 32% |
| Desmond Bane: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 32% |
| Jamal Cain: Points O/U 9.5 | 31% |
| Spread -12.5 | 30% |
| Franz Wagner: Assists O/U 8.5 | 30% |
| Anthony Black: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 30% |
| Spread -1.5 | 29% |
| Franz Wagner: Points O/U 23.5 | 29% |
| Darius Acuff Jr.: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 29% |
| O/U 233.5 | 28% |
| Anthony Black: Points O/U 19.5 | 28% |
| Anthony Black: Points O/U 16.5 | 28% |
| Anthony Black: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 28% |
| Jase Richardson: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 28% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 28% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 28% |
| Franz Wagner: Rebounds O/U 6.5 | 27% |
| Zach LaVine: Assists O/U 2.5 | 27% |
| Anthony Black: Steals O/U 1.5 | 27% |
| Desmond Bane: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 26% |
| De'Andre Hunter: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 26% |
| Tristan da Silva: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 26% |
| Spread -14.5 | 25% |
| Spread -3.5 | 25% |
| Desmond Bane: Points O/U 24.5 | 25% |
| Franz Wagner: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 25% |
| Franz Wagner: Assists O/U 9.5 | 25% |
| Jase Richardson: Assists O/U 3.5 | 25% |
| Franz Wagner: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 25% |
| Wendell Carter Jr.: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 25% |
| 1H O/U 120.5 | 25% |
| 1H O/U 122.5 | 25% |
| 1H O/U 124.5 | 25% |
| 1H O/U 126.5 | 25% |
| O/U 235.5 | 24% |
| Desmond Bane: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 24% |
| Darius Acuff Jr.: Points O/U 29.5 | 24% |
| Wendell Carter Jr.: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 24% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 24% |
| Domantas Sabonis: Points O/U 13.5 | 23% |
| Domantas Sabonis: Rebounds O/U 12.5 | 23% |
| Desmond Bane: Steals O/U 1.5 | 23% |
| Franz Wagner: Steals O/U 1.5 | 23% |
| Domantas Sabonis: Assists O/U 5.5 | 22% |
| Darius Acuff Jr.: Assists O/U 9.5 | 22% |
| Desmond Bane: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 22% |
| O/U 237.5 | 21% |
| Jamal Cain: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 21% |
| Jase Richardson: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 21% |
| Spread -16.5 | 20% |
| Tristan da Silva: Points O/U 19.5 | 20% |
| Spread -5.5 | 19% |
| Franz Wagner: Points O/U 29.5 | 19% |
| Zach LaVine: Assists O/U 3.5 | 19% |
| Darius Acuff Jr.: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 19% |
| Zach LaVine: Points O/U 24.5 | 18% |
| Anthony Black: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 18% |
| De'Andre Hunter: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 18% |
| O/U 239.5 | 17% |
| Spread -18.5 | 16% |
| Spread -7.5 | 16% |
| Zach LaVine: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 16% |
| Darius Acuff Jr.: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 15% |
| O/U 241.5 | 14% |
| Anthony Black: Steals O/U 2.5 | 14% |
| Spread -20.5 | 13% |
| Franz Wagner: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 13% |
| Desmond Bane: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 13% |
| Desmond Bane: Steals O/U 2.5 | 13% |
| Tristan da Silva: Steals O/U 1.5 | 13% |
| Spread -9.5 | 12% |
| O/U 243.5 | 12% |
| Wendell Carter Jr.: Points O/U 19.5 | 12% |
| Anthony Black: Assists O/U 7.5 | 12% |
| Franz Wagner: Assists O/U 11.5 | 12% |
| Franz Wagner: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 12% |
| Tristan da Silva: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 12% |
| Franz Wagner: Steals O/U 2.5 | 12% |
| Darius Acuff Jr.: Points O/U 34.5 | 11% |
| Anthony Black: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 11% |
| De'Andre Hunter: Points O/U 19.5 | 11% |
| Jase Richardson: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 11% |
| De'Andre Hunter: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 11% |
| Anthony Black: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 11% |
| O/U 245.5 | 10% |
| De'Andre Hunter: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 10% |
| Zach LaVine: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 10% |
| Darius Acuff Jr.: Steals O/U 2.5 | 10% |
| Spread -22.5 | 9% |
| Spread -11.5 | 9% |
| Darius Acuff Jr.: Points O/U 39.5 | 9% |
| Desmond Bane: Points O/U 29.5 | 9% |
| Wendell Carter Jr.: Points O/U 24.5 | 9% |
| Desmond Bane: 3-Pointers Made O/U 5.5 | 9% |
| Zach LaVine: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 9% |
| O/U 247.5 | 8% |
| Anthony Black: Points O/U 24.5 | 8% |
| Franz Wagner: Points O/U 34.5 | 8% |
| Jase Richardson: Points O/U 14.5 | 8% |
| Zach LaVine: Points O/U 29.5 | 8% |
| Wendell Carter Jr.: Rebounds O/U 13.5 | 8% |
| Wendell Carter Jr.: Assists O/U 3.5 | 8% |
| Franz Wagner: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 8% |
| Wendell Carter Jr.: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 8% |
| Spread -24.5 | 7% |
| Spread -26.5 | 7% |
| Spread -13.5 | 7% |
| Spread -15.5 | 7% |
| O/U 249.5 | 7% |
| Spread -17.5 | 7% |
| Anthony Black: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 7% |
| Desmond Bane: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 7% |
| Franz Wagner: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 7% |
| Jamal Cain: Points O/U 14.5 | 7% |
| Tristan da Silva: Points O/U 24.5 | 7% |
| De'Andre Hunter: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 7% |
| Wendell Carter Jr.: Rebounds O/U 15.5 | 7% |
| Anthony Black: Assists O/U 9.5 | 7% |
| Desmond Bane: Assists O/U 5.5 | 7% |
| Franz Wagner: Assists O/U 13.5 | 7% |
| Franz Wagner: Assists O/U 15.5 | 7% |
| Jase Richardson: Assists O/U 5.5 | 7% |
| De'Andre Hunter: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 7% |
| Spread -30.5 | 6% |
| Desmond Bane: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 6% |
| De'Andre Hunter: Points O/U 24.5 | 6% |
| Jase Richardson: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 6% |
| Tristan da Silva: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 6% |
| Darius Acuff Jr.: Assists O/U 11.5 | 6% |
| Anthony Black: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 6% |
| Jase Richardson: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 6% |
| Spread -19.5 | 5% |
| Zach LaVine: Assists O/U 5.5 | 5% |
| Spread -28.5 | 3% |
| Spread -32.5 | 3% |
| Spread -34.5 | 3% |
| Spread -21.5 | 3% |
Market context
Magic vs. Kings — current market-implied probability: 96%. In the upcoming NBA game between Magic and Kings, originally scheduled for Tuesday, November 10, 2026 at 10:00 PM ET (as of creation of the first market related to the event): If the Magic win, the ma…
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $63K.
Methodology
Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Magic vs. Kings plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.
Resolution & payout
For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- How accurate are political prediction markets?
- Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.
- Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?
- Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Trump Prediction route into the same order book at 0% fees.
- Are political prediction markets legal in my country?
- It varies. They sit in legal gray areas in most jurisdictions. Polymarket is geo-blocked from US/UK/EU; some broker frontends have a different geo footprint. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose, and only if you understand the legal status in your jurisdiction.
- Why do Polymarket and Kalshi differ on elections?
- Kalshi must follow CFTC compliance — strict definitions, clear resolution sources, US citizens only with KYC. Polymarket operates globally without CFTC oversight — deeper liquidity, but also higher regulatory risk.
- Are UK election prediction markets available from the UK?
- Yes. Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer UKGC-regulated UK election markets (seat counts, party share, constituency results). Polymarket also lists UK election contracts with deeper global liquidity. Betfair winnings are typically tax-free for UK individuals; Polymarket profits are subject to HMRC CGT.
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