Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Trump Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Jordan Love: Passing Touchdowns O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Bijan Robinson: Rushing Yards O/U 59.5 | 100% |
| Bijan Robinson: Rushing Yards O/U 69.5 | 100% |
| Matthew Golden: Receiving Yards O/U 19.5 | 100% |
| Matthew Golden: Receiving Yards O/U 29.5 | 100% |
| Matthew Golden: Receiving Yards O/U 39.5 | 100% |
| Christian Watson: Anytime Touchdown | 100% |
| Matthew Golden: Longest Reception O/U 19.5 | 100% |
| Bijan Robinson: Rushing Yards O/U 39.5 | 100% |
| Bijan Robinson: Rushing Yards O/U 49.5 | 100% |
| Brian Robinson: Rushing Yards O/U 4.5 | 100% |
| Brian Robinson: Rushing Yards O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Bijan Robinson: Receiving Yards O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Matthew Golden: Receiving Yards O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Tucker Kraft: Receiving Yards O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Tucker Kraft: Receiving Yards O/U 19.5 | 100% |
| Skyy Moore: Receptions O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Tucker Kraft: Receptions O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Bijan Robinson: Anytime Touchdown | 74% |
| Bijan Robinson: Rushing Yards O/U 119.5 | 64% |
| Jordan Love: Passing Yards O/U 174.5 | 50% |
| Jordan Love: Passing Yards O/U 199.5 | 50% |
| Jordan Love: Passing Yards O/U 224.5 | 50% |
| Jordan Love: Passing Yards O/U 249.5 | 50% |
| Jordan Love: Passing Yards O/U 274.5 | 50% |
| Jordan Love: Passing Touchdowns O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Jordan Love: Passing Touchdowns O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Jordan Love: Passing Touchdowns O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Bijan Robinson: Rushing Yards O/U 79.5 | 50% |
| Bijan Robinson: Rushing Yards O/U 89.5 | 50% |
| Bijan Robinson: Rushing Yards O/U 99.5 | 50% |
| Brian Robinson: Rushing Yards O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Bijan Robinson: Receiving Yards O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Bijan Robinson: Receiving Yards O/U 39.5 | 50% |
| Bijan Robinson: Receiving Yards O/U 49.5 | 50% |
| Christian Watson: Receiving Yards O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Christian Watson: Receiving Yards O/U 39.5 | 50% |
| Christian Watson: Receiving Yards O/U 49.5 | 50% |
| Christian Watson: Receiving Yards O/U 59.5 | 50% |
| Christian Watson: Receiving Yards O/U 69.5 | 50% |
| Drake London: Receiving Yards O/U 49.5 | 50% |
| Drake London: Receiving Yards O/U 59.5 | 50% |
| Drake London: Receiving Yards O/U 69.5 | 50% |
| Drake London: Receiving Yards O/U 79.5 | 50% |
| Drake London: Receiving Yards O/U 89.5 | 50% |
| Jahan Dotson: Receiving Yards O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Jayden Reed: Receiving Yards O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Jayden Reed: Receiving Yards O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Jayden Reed: Receiving Yards O/U 39.5 | 50% |
| Jayden Reed: Receiving Yards O/U 49.5 | 50% |
| Jayden Reed: Receiving Yards O/U 59.5 | 50% |
| Kyle Pitts Sr.: Receiving Yards O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Kyle Pitts Sr.: Receiving Yards O/U 39.5 | 50% |
| Kyle Pitts Sr.: Receiving Yards O/U 49.5 | 50% |
| Kyle Pitts Sr.: Receiving Yards O/U 59.5 | 50% |
| Kyle Pitts Sr.: Receiving Yards O/U 69.5 | 50% |
| Matthew Golden: Receiving Yards O/U 49.5 | 50% |
| Matthew Golden: Receiving Yards O/U 59.5 | 50% |
| Tucker Kraft: Receiving Yards O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Tucker Kraft: Receiving Yards O/U 39.5 | 50% |
| Tucker Kraft: Receiving Yards O/U 49.5 | 50% |
| Tucker Kraft: Receiving Yards O/U 59.5 | 50% |
| Tucker Kraft: Receiving Yards O/U 69.5 | 50% |
| Bijan Robinson: Receptions O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Bijan Robinson: Receptions O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Bijan Robinson: Receptions O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Christian Watson: Receptions O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Christian Watson: Receptions O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Christian Watson: Receptions O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Drake London: Receptions O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Drake London: Receptions O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Drake London: Receptions O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Jahan Dotson: Receptions O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Jayden Reed: Receptions O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Jayden Reed: Receptions O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Jayden Reed: Receptions O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Kyle Pitts Sr.: Receptions O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Kyle Pitts Sr.: Receptions O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Kyle Pitts Sr.: Receptions O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Matthew Golden: Receptions O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Matthew Golden: Receptions O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Matthew Golden: Receptions O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Tucker Kraft: Receptions O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Tucker Kraft: Receptions O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Tucker Kraft: Receptions O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Austin Hooper: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Austin Hooper: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Bijan Robinson: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Bo Melton: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Bo Melton: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Brian Robinson: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Brian Robinson: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Charlie Woerner: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Charlie Woerner: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Chris Blair: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Chris Blair: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Chris Brooks: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Chris Brooks: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Christian Watson: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Drake London: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Drake London: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| J. Michael Sturdivant: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| J. Michael Sturdivant: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Jahan Dotson: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Jahan Dotson: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Jayden Reed: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Jayden Reed: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Jonnu Smith: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Jonnu Smith: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Jordan Love: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Jordan Love: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Josh Whyle: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Josh Whyle: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Kaleb Johnson: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Kaleb Johnson: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Kyle Pitts Sr.: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Kyle Pitts Sr.: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Mark Redman: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Mark Redman: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| MarShawn Lloyd: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| MarShawn Lloyd: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Matthew Golden: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Matthew Golden: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Nick Muse: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Nick Muse: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Olamide Zaccheaus: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Olamide Zaccheaus: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Skyy Moore: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Skyy Moore: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Tucker Kraft: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Zachariah Branch: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Zachariah Branch: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Christian Watson: Longest Reception O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Drake London: Longest Reception O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Jayden Reed: Longest Reception O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Kyle Pitts Sr.: Longest Reception O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Tucker Kraft: Longest Reception O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Jordan Love: Passing Attempts O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Jordan Love: Passing Attempts O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| Jordan Love: Passing Attempts O/U 31.5 | 50% |
| Jordan Love: Passing Completions O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Jordan Love: Passing Completions O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Jordan Love: Passing Completions O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Austin Hooper: Team First TD (Atlanta Falcons) | 50% |
| Bijan Robinson: Team First TD (Atlanta Falcons) | 50% |
| Bo Melton: Team First TD (Green Bay Packers) | 50% |
| Brian Robinson: Team First TD (Atlanta Falcons) | 50% |
| Charlie Woerner: Team First TD (Atlanta Falcons) | 50% |
| Chris Blair: Team First TD (Atlanta Falcons) | 50% |
| Chris Brooks: Team First TD (Green Bay Packers) | 50% |
| Christian Watson: Team First TD (Green Bay Packers) | 50% |
| Drake London: Team First TD (Atlanta Falcons) | 50% |
| J. Michael Sturdivant: Team First TD (Green Bay Packers) | 50% |
| Jahan Dotson: Team First TD (Atlanta Falcons) | 50% |
| Jayden Reed: Team First TD (Green Bay Packers) | 50% |
| Jonnu Smith: Team First TD (Green Bay Packers) | 50% |
| Jordan Love: Team First TD (Green Bay Packers) | 50% |
| Josh Whyle: Team First TD (Green Bay Packers) | 50% |
| Kaleb Johnson: Team First TD (Green Bay Packers) | 50% |
| Kyle Pitts Sr.: Team First TD (Atlanta Falcons) | 50% |
| Mark Redman: Team First TD (Green Bay Packers) | 50% |
| MarShawn Lloyd: Team First TD (Green Bay Packers) | 50% |
| Matthew Golden: Team First TD (Green Bay Packers) | 50% |
| Nick Muse: Team First TD (Atlanta Falcons) | 50% |
| Olamide Zaccheaus: Team First TD (Atlanta Falcons) | 50% |
| Skyy Moore: Team First TD (Green Bay Packers) | 50% |
| Tucker Kraft: Team First TD (Green Bay Packers) | 50% |
| Zachariah Branch: Team First TD (Atlanta Falcons) | 50% |
| Michael Penix Jr.: Passing Yards O/U 149.5 | 50% |
| Michael Penix Jr.: Passing Yards O/U 174.5 | 50% |
| Michael Penix Jr.: Passing Yards O/U 199.5 | 50% |
| Michael Penix Jr.: Passing Yards O/U 224.5 | 50% |
| Michael Penix Jr.: Passing Yards O/U 249.5 | 50% |
| Michael Penix Jr.: Passing Touchdowns O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Michael Penix Jr.: Passing Touchdowns O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Michael Penix Jr.: Passing Touchdowns O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Michael Penix Jr.: Passing Touchdowns O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Michael Penix Jr.: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Michael Penix Jr.: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Michael Penix Jr.: Passing Attempts O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| Michael Penix Jr.: Passing Attempts O/U 31.5 | 50% |
| Michael Penix Jr.: Passing Attempts O/U 35.5 | 50% |
| Michael Penix Jr.: Passing Completions O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Michael Penix Jr.: Passing Completions O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| Michael Penix Jr.: Passing Completions O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Michael Penix Jr.: Team First TD (Atlanta Falcons) | 50% |
| Kaleb Johnson: Rushing Yards O/U 39.5 | 50% |
| MarShawn Lloyd: Rushing Yards O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Skyy Moore: Receiving Yards O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Skyy Moore: Receptions O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Jonnu Smith: Receiving Yards O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Olamide Zaccheaus: Receiving Yards O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Jonnu Smith: Receptions O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Olamide Zaccheaus: Receptions O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Jordan Love: Passing Yards O/U 124.5 | 50% |
| Jordan Love: Passing Yards O/U 149.5 | 50% |
| Jordan Love: Passing Yards O/U 299.5 | 50% |
| Jordan Love: Passing Yards O/U 324.5 | 50% |
| Michael Penix Jr.: Passing Yards O/U 99.5 | 50% |
| Michael Penix Jr.: Passing Yards O/U 124.5 | 50% |
| Michael Penix Jr.: Passing Yards O/U 274.5 | 50% |
| Michael Penix Jr.: Passing Yards O/U 299.5 | 50% |
| Bijan Robinson: Rushing Yards O/U 109.5 | 50% |
| Brian Robinson: Rushing Yards O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Brian Robinson: Rushing Yards O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Brian Robinson: Rushing Yards O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Brian Robinson: Rushing Yards O/U 34.5 | 50% |
| Brian Robinson: Rushing Yards O/U 39.5 | 50% |
| Brian Robinson: Rushing Yards O/U 44.5 | 50% |
| Chris Brooks: Rushing Yards O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Chris Brooks: Rushing Yards O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Chris Brooks: Rushing Yards O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Chris Brooks: Rushing Yards O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Chris Brooks: Rushing Yards O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Chris Brooks: Rushing Yards O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Chris Brooks: Rushing Yards O/U 34.5 | 50% |
| Kaleb Johnson: Rushing Yards O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Kaleb Johnson: Rushing Yards O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Kaleb Johnson: Rushing Yards O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Kaleb Johnson: Rushing Yards O/U 49.5 | 50% |
| Kaleb Johnson: Rushing Yards O/U 59.5 | 50% |
| Kaleb Johnson: Rushing Yards O/U 69.5 | 50% |
| Kaleb Johnson: Rushing Yards O/U 79.5 | 50% |
| MarShawn Lloyd: Rushing Yards O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| MarShawn Lloyd: Rushing Yards O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| MarShawn Lloyd: Rushing Yards O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| MarShawn Lloyd: Rushing Yards O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| MarShawn Lloyd: Rushing Yards O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| MarShawn Lloyd: Rushing Yards O/U 34.5 | 50% |
| MarShawn Lloyd: Rushing Yards O/U 39.5 | 50% |
| MarShawn Lloyd: Rushing Yards O/U 44.5 | 50% |
| Bijan Robinson: Receiving Yards O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Bijan Robinson: Receiving Yards O/U 59.5 | 50% |
| Bijan Robinson: Receiving Yards O/U 69.5 | 50% |
| Bijan Robinson: Receiving Yards O/U 79.5 | 50% |
| Christian Watson: Receiving Yards O/U 79.5 | 50% |
| Christian Watson: Receiving Yards O/U 89.5 | 50% |
| Christian Watson: Receiving Yards O/U 99.5 | 50% |
| Christian Watson: Receiving Yards O/U 109.5 | 50% |
| Drake London: Receiving Yards O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Drake London: Receiving Yards O/U 39.5 | 50% |
| Drake London: Receiving Yards O/U 99.5 | 50% |
| Drake London: Receiving Yards O/U 109.5 | 50% |
| Jahan Dotson: Receiving Yards O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Jahan Dotson: Receiving Yards O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Jahan Dotson: Receiving Yards O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Jahan Dotson: Receiving Yards O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Jahan Dotson: Receiving Yards O/U 34.5 | 50% |
| Jahan Dotson: Receiving Yards O/U 39.5 | 50% |
| Kyle Pitts Sr.: Receiving Yards O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Kyle Pitts Sr.: Receiving Yards O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Kyle Pitts Sr.: Receiving Yards O/U 79.5 | 50% |
| Matthew Golden: Receiving Yards O/U 69.5 | 50% |
| Matthew Golden: Receiving Yards O/U 79.5 | 50% |
| Matthew Golden: Receiving Yards O/U 89.5 | 50% |
| Olamide Zaccheaus: Receiving Yards O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Olamide Zaccheaus: Receiving Yards O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Olamide Zaccheaus: Receiving Yards O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Olamide Zaccheaus: Receiving Yards O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Skyy Moore: Receiving Yards O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Skyy Moore: Receiving Yards O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Skyy Moore: Receiving Yards O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Skyy Moore: Receiving Yards O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Tucker Kraft: Receiving Yards O/U 79.5 | 50% |
| Tucker Kraft: Receiving Yards O/U 89.5 | 50% |
| Bijan Robinson: Receptions O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Bijan Robinson: Receptions O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Christian Watson: Receptions O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Christian Watson: Receptions O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Drake London: Receptions O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Drake London: Receptions O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Drake London: Receptions O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| Drake London: Receptions O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Jahan Dotson: Receptions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Jahan Dotson: Receptions O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Jahan Dotson: Receptions O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Jonnu Smith: Receptions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Jonnu Smith: Receptions O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Jonnu Smith: Receptions O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Kyle Pitts Sr.: Receptions O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Kyle Pitts Sr.: Receptions O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Matthew Golden: Receptions O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Matthew Golden: Receptions O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Olamide Zaccheaus: Receptions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Olamide Zaccheaus: Receptions O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Olamide Zaccheaus: Receptions O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Skyy Moore: Receptions O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Skyy Moore: Receptions O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Tucker Kraft: Receptions O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Skyy Moore: Receiving Yards O/U 34.5 | 50% |
| Tucker Kraft: Anytime Touchdown | 48% |
Market context
Falcons vs. Packers - Player Props — current market-implied probability: 100%. Player prop markets for the NFL game between the Falcons and Packers, scheduled for September 24 at 8:15 PM ET.
Methodology
Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Falcons vs. Packers - Player Props plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.
Resolution & payout
For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- How accurate are political prediction markets?
- Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.
- Can prediction markets influence election outcomes?
- Markets reflect expectations rather than create them. Studies show public-facing markets can anchor expectations, but don't influence the underlying outcome. Political markets are information, not advocacy.
- Are political prediction markets legal in my country?
- It varies. They sit in legal gray areas in most jurisdictions. Polymarket is geo-blocked from US/UK/EU; some broker frontends have a different geo footprint. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose, and only if you understand the legal status in your jurisdiction.
- Why do Polymarket and Kalshi differ on elections?
- Kalshi must follow CFTC compliance — strict definitions, clear resolution sources, US citizens only with KYC. Polymarket operates globally without CFTC oversight — deeper liquidity, but also higher regulatory risk.
- Are UK election prediction markets available from the UK?
- Yes. Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer UKGC-regulated UK election markets (seat counts, party share, constituency results). Polymarket also lists UK election contracts with deeper global liquidity. Betfair winnings are typically tax-free for UK individuals; Polymarket profits are subject to HMRC CGT.
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