Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Trump Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
90% | 10% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
90% | 10% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 24.5 | 90% |
| 2Q O/U 5.5 | 89% |
| 4Q O/U 5.5 | 88% |
| Packers O/U 10.5 | 87% |
| O/U 26.5 | 86% |
| Packers O/U 12.5 | 86% |
| O/U 27.5 | 84% |
| Packers O/U 13.5 | 83% |
| O/U 28.5 | 82% |
| 3Q O/U 5.5 | 81% |
| O/U 29.5 | 79% |
| Buccaneers O/U 10.5 | 79% |
| 2Q O/U 6.5 | 78% |
| O/U 30.5 | 76% |
| Buccaneers O/U 12.5 | 76% |
| 4Q O/U 6.5 | 75% |
| Packers 1H O/U 6.5 | 74% |
| O/U 31.5 | 73% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 71% |
| 1Q O/U 5.5 | 70% |
| Packers O/U 16.5 | 70% |
| O/U 32.5 | 69% |
| 2H O/U 16.5 | 69% |
| Buccaneers O/U 13.5 | 68% |
| O/U 33.5 | 67% |
| O/U 34.5 | 65% |
| Buccaneers 1H O/U 6.5 | 65% |
| 1H O/U 16.5 | 64% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 64% |
| O/U 35.5 | 62% |
| 1Q O/U 6.5 | 62% |
| Packers vs. Buccaneers | 61% |
| Spread -0.5 | 61% |
| 3Q O/U 6.5 | 61% |
| Packers O/U 19.5 | 58% |
| Spread -1.5 | 57% |
| O/U 36.5 | 57% |
| Buccaneers O/U 16.5 | 57% |
| 1H Moneyline | 56% |
| Spread -2.5 | 55% |
| O/U 37.5 | 55% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 55% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 4Q | 54% |
| O/U 38.5 | 52% |
| 1H O/U 19.5 | 51% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 51% |
| Packers O/U 20.5 | 51% |
| Packers 2H O/U 6.5 | 51% |
| Buccaneers 2H O/U 6.5 | 51% |
| Buccaneers 2H O/U 10.5 | 51% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 51% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| Packers 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Packers 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Packers 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Packers 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Buccaneers 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Buccaneers 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Packers by 25+ | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Packers by 19-24 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Packers by 13-18 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Packers by 7-12 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Buccaneers by 7-13 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Buccaneers by 14-20 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Buccaneers by 21+ | 50% |
| Team to Record Longest FG | 50% |
| Packers Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Buccaneers Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Packers vs. Buccaneers: Total Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Packers Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Buccaneers Total Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 49% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 49% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 49% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 49% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 49% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 49% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 49% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 49% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 49% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 49% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 49% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 49% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 49% |
| 2H O/U 19.5 | 49% |
| Packers 2H O/U 13.5 | 49% |
| Packers 2H O/U 19.5 | 49% |
| Packers 2H O/U 20.5 | 49% |
| Buccaneers 2H O/U 13.5 | 49% |
| Buccaneers 2H O/U 16.5 | 49% |
| Buccaneers 2H O/U 19.5 | 49% |
| Buccaneers 2H O/U 20.5 | 49% |
| O/U 39.5 | 48% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 48% |
| Exact Margin: Packers by 1-6 | 48% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 2Q | 48% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 47% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 46% |
| Buccaneers 1H O/U 12.5 | 46% |
| Spread -3.5 | 45% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 45% |
| Buccaneers 1H O/U 10.5 | 45% |
| Exact Margin: Buccaneers by 1-6 | 45% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 3Q | 45% |
| O/U 40.5 | 44% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 44% |
| Buccaneers O/U 19.5 | 44% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 43% |
| Exact Margin: Tie | 43% |
| Spread -4.5 | 42% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 42% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 42% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 42% |
| O/U 41.5 | 41% |
| Spread -5.5 | 41% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 41% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 41% |
| Packers 1H O/U 10.5 | 41% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 40% |
| Packers O/U 23.5 | 40% |
| O/U 42.5 | 39% |
| Spread -6.5 | 38% |
| Spread -1.5 | 38% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 38% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 38% |
| Packers 1H O/U 12.5 | 38% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 37% |
| 1H O/U 22.5 | 37% |
| Buccaneers O/U 20.5 | 37% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 36% |
| O/U 43.5 | 35% |
| Spread -2.5 | 35% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 35% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 35% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 35% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 35% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 35% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 34% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 34% |
| O/U 44.5 | 33% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 33% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 33% |
| 2H O/U 22.5 | 33% |
| 2H O/U 25.5 | 33% |
| Spread -7.5 | 32% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 32% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 32% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 32% |
| 2Q O/U 14.5 | 32% |
| Packers 1H O/U 13.5 | 32% |
| O/U 45.5 | 31% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 1Q | 31% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 30% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 30% |
| Spread -8.5 | 29% |
| Packers O/U 26.5 | 29% |
| O/U 46.5 | 28% |
| Spread -9.5 | 28% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 28% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 28% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 28% |
| 4Q O/U 14.5 | 28% |
| Spread -3.5 | 27% |
| Buccaneers O/U 23.5 | 27% |
| Spread -4.5 | 26% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 26% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 26% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 26% |
| O/U 47.5 | 25% |
| Spread -10.5 | 25% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 25% |
| Buccaneers 1H O/U 13.5 | 25% |
| Spread -5.5 | 24% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 24% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 24% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 24% |
| 1H O/U 25.5 | 24% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 24% |
| O/U 48.5 | 23% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 23% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 23% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 23% |
| Packers O/U 27.5 | 23% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 22% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 22% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 22% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 22% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 22% |
| Packers 1H O/U 16.5 | 22% |
| O/U 49.5 | 21% |
| Spread -6.5 | 21% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 21% |
| O/U 50.5 | 20% |
| Spread -13.5 | 20% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 20% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 20% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 19% |
| O/U 51.5 | 18% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 18% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 18% |
| Spread -14.5 | 17% |
| Spread -7.5 | 17% |
| Spread -8.5 | 16% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 16% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 16% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 16% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 16% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 16% |
| 1H O/U 28.5 | 16% |
| Packers 1H O/U 17.5 | 16% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 15% |
| O/U 52.5 | 15% |
| 2H O/U 28.5 | 15% |
| O/U 53.5 | 14% |
| Spread -16.5 | 14% |
| Spread -9.5 | 14% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 14% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 14% |
| Buccaneers 1H O/U 16.5 | 14% |
| Spread -17.5 | 13% |
| Spread -10.5 | 13% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 13% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 13% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 13% |
| O/U 54.5 | 13% |
| Buccaneers O/U 26.5 | 13% |
| O/U 55.5 | 12% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 12% |
| O/U 56.5 | 12% |
| Packers O/U 30.5 | 12% |
| Packers 1H O/U 19.5 | 12% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 11% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 11% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 11% |
| 3Q O/U 14.5 | 11% |
| Buccaneers O/U 27.5 | 11% |
| Buccaneers 1H O/U 17.5 | 11% |
| O/U 57.5 | 10% |
| Spread -19.5 | 10% |
| Spread -13.5 | 10% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 10% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 10% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 10% |
| Spread -20.5 | 9% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 9% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 9% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 9% |
| 1Q O/U 14.5 | 9% |
| Packers O/U 34.5 | 9% |
| Buccaneers O/U 30.5 | 9% |
| Buccaneers O/U 34.5 | 9% |
| Safety? | 9% |
| O/U 59.5 | 8% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 8% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 8% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 8% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 8% |
| O/U 58.5 | 8% |
| Packers 1H O/U 20.5 | 8% |
| Spread -21.5 | 7% |
| Spread -14.5 | 7% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 7% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 7% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 7% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 7% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 7% |
| O/U 60.5 | 7% |
| Buccaneers 1H O/U 19.5 | 7% |
| Spread -16.5 | 6% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 6% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 6% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 6% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 6% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 6% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 6% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 6% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 6% |
| O/U 61.5 | 5% |
| Spread -17.5 | 5% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 5% |
| Buccaneers 1H O/U 20.5 | 5% |
| O/U 63.5 | 4% |
| Spread -19.5 | 4% |
| Spread -20.5 | 4% |
| Spread -21.5 | 4% |
| O/U 62.5 | 4% |
| O/U 64.5 | 4% |
| O/U 65.5 | 3% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 3% |
| O/U 67.5 | 2% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 90% YES probability for Packers vs. Buccaneers. In the upcoming NFL game, scheduled for October 4 at 1:00PM ET: If Packers wins, the market will resolve to "Packers". If Buccaneers wins, the market will resolve to "Buccaneers". If the game is postp…
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $982K.
Methodology
This page tracks Packers vs. Buccaneers across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. For users geo-blocked from Polymarket directly, brokers like Trump Prediction provide a 0%-fee route into the same order book.
Resolution & payout
For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- How accurate are political prediction markets?
- Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.
- What resolution source is used for elections?
- Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.
- Can prediction markets influence election outcomes?
- Markets reflect expectations rather than create them. Studies show public-facing markets can anchor expectations, but don't influence the underlying outcome. Political markets are information, not advocacy.
- Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?
- Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Trump Prediction route into the same order book at 0% fees.
- Are UK election prediction markets available from the UK?
- Yes. Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer UKGC-regulated UK election markets (seat counts, party share, constituency results). Polymarket also lists UK election contracts with deeper global liquidity. Betfair winnings are typically tax-free for UK individuals; Polymarket profits are subject to HMRC CGT.
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