Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Trump Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 22.5 | 100% |
| O/U 24.5 | 100% |
| O/U 28.5 | 100% |
| O/U 30.5 | 100% |
| O/U 32.5 | 100% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 100% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 100% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 100% |
| 1H O/U 16.5 | 100% |
| 1H O/U 19.5 | 100% |
| 1Q O/U 5.5 | 100% |
| 1Q O/U 6.5 | 100% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 100% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 100% |
| 2Q O/U 5.5 | 100% |
| 2Q O/U 6.5 | 100% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 100% |
| Raiders O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| Raiders O/U 12.5 | 100% |
| Raiders O/U 13.5 | 100% |
| Chiefs 1H O/U 6.5 | 100% |
| Raiders 1H O/U 6.5 | 100% |
| Raiders 1H O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| Raiders 1H O/U 12.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 1Q | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 2Q | 100% |
| 4Q O/U 6.5 | 99% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 99% |
| Chiefs O/U 10.5 | 94% |
| O/U 34.5 | 92% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 82% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 81% |
| O/U 36.5 | 79% |
| 4Q O/U 14.5 | 77% |
| Chiefs vs. Raiders | 72% |
| Chiefs O/U 20.5 | 63% |
| O/U 39.5 | 62% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 60% |
| Spread -1.5 | 58% |
| 1H O/U 22.5 | 58% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 56% |
| Spread -2.5 | 54% |
| Raiders O/U 20.5 | 54% |
| O/U 26.5 | 53% |
| 4Q O/U 5.5 | 53% |
| Chiefs O/U 12.5 | 53% |
| Chiefs O/U 13.5 | 53% |
| Chiefs O/U 16.5 | 53% |
| Chiefs 2H O/U 6.5 | 53% |
| O/U 40.5 | 52% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 51% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 4Q | 51% |
| O/U 38.5 | 50% |
| O/U 54.5 | 50% |
| O/U 56.5 | 50% |
| O/U 60.5 | 50% |
| O/U 62.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 25.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 28.5 | 50% |
| Chiefs O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Chiefs O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Chiefs O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| Chiefs O/U 30.5 | 50% |
| Chiefs O/U 34.5 | 50% |
| Raiders O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Raiders O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Raiders O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Raiders O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| Raiders O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| Raiders O/U 30.5 | 50% |
| Raiders O/U 34.5 | 50% |
| Chiefs 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Chiefs 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Chiefs 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Chiefs 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Chiefs 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Chiefs 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Chiefs 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Raiders 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Raiders 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Raiders 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Raiders 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Raiders 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Raiders 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Raiders 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Raiders 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Chiefs by 25+ | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Chiefs by 19-24 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Chiefs by 13-18 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Chiefs by 7-12 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Chiefs by 1-6 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Raiders by 1-6 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Raiders by 7-13 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Raiders by 14-20 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Raiders by 21+ | 50% |
| Safety? | 50% |
| Team to Record Longest FG | 50% |
| Chiefs Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Raiders Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Chiefs vs. Raiders: Total Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Chiefs Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Raiders Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Chiefs Total Touchdowns: O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Spread -8.5 | 49% |
| Spread -3.5 | 48% |
| Spread -19.5 | 47% |
| Spread -21.5 | 47% |
| Spread -16.5 | 47% |
| Spread -17.5 | 47% |
| Spread -19.5 | 47% |
| Spread -20.5 | 47% |
| Spread -21.5 | 47% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 47% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 47% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 47% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 47% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 47% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 47% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 47% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 47% |
| 3Q O/U 5.5 | 47% |
| O/U 41.5 | 46% |
| O/U 42.5 | 43% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 43% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 3Q | 42% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 40% |
| O/U 43.5 | 36% |
| O/U 44.5 | 35% |
| O/U 45.5 | 34% |
| Spread -4.5 | 33% |
| Spread -5.5 | 31% |
| Chiefs O/U 26.5 | 30% |
| Spread -6.5 | 28% |
| O/U 46.5 | 27% |
| Spread -1.5 | 25% |
| Spread -7.5 | 24% |
| O/U 48.5 | 22% |
| Spread -2.5 | 17% |
| O/U 50.5 | 14% |
| Spread -3.5 | 11% |
| O/U 52.5 | 10% |
| Spread -4.5 | 10% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 10% |
| Spread -9.5 | 9% |
| Spread -10.5 | 8% |
| Spread -5.5 | 8% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 7% |
| Spread -6.5 | 6% |
| Spread -13.5 | 5% |
| Exact Margin: Tie | 5% |
| O/U 58.5 | 4% |
| Spread -14.5 | 4% |
| Spread -7.5 | 3% |
| Spread -9.5 | 3% |
| Spread -20.5 | 2% |
| Spread -10.5 | 2% |
| Spread -13.5 | 2% |
| Spread -14.5 | 2% |
| Spread -16.5 | 1% |
| Spread -17.5 | 1% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 1% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 1% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 1% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 1% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 1% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 1% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 1% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 1% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 1% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 1% |
| O/U 64.5 | 1% |
| 3Q O/U 6.5 | 1% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 1% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 1% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 1% |
| 3Q O/U 14.5 | 1% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 0% |
| 1H O/U 25.5 | 0% |
| 1H O/U 28.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 14.5 | 0% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 0% |
| 2Q O/U 14.5 | 0% |
| Chiefs 1H O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| Chiefs 1H O/U 12.5 | 0% |
| Chiefs 1H O/U 13.5 | 0% |
| Chiefs 1H O/U 16.5 | 0% |
| Chiefs 1H O/U 17.5 | 0% |
| Chiefs 1H O/U 19.5 | 0% |
| Chiefs 1H O/U 20.5 | 0% |
| Raiders 1H O/U 13.5 | 0% |
| Raiders 1H O/U 16.5 | 0% |
| Raiders 1H O/U 17.5 | 0% |
| Raiders 1H O/U 19.5 | 0% |
| Raiders 1H O/U 20.5 | 0% |
| 1H Moneyline | 0% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 0% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 100% probability to chiefs vs. raiders. In the upcoming NFL game, scheduled for October 4 at 4:25PM ET: If Chiefs wins, the market will resolve to "Chiefs". If Raiders wins, the market will resolve to "Raiders". If the game is postponed, th…
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $5.8M.
Methodology
This page tracks Chiefs vs. Raiders across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. For users geo-blocked from Polymarket directly, brokers like Trump Prediction provide a 0%-fee route into the same order book.
Resolution & payout
For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- How accurate are political prediction markets?
- Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.
- What resolution source is used for elections?
- Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.
- Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?
- Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Trump Prediction route into the same order book at 0% fees.
- Why do Polymarket and Kalshi differ on elections?
- Kalshi must follow CFTC compliance — strict definitions, clear resolution sources, US citizens only with KYC. Polymarket operates globally without CFTC oversight — deeper liquidity, but also higher regulatory risk.
- Are UK election prediction markets available from the UK?
- Yes. Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer UKGC-regulated UK election markets (seat counts, party share, constituency results). Polymarket also lists UK election contracts with deeper global liquidity. Betfair winnings are typically tax-free for UK individuals; Polymarket profits are subject to HMRC CGT.
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