Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Trump Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
96% | 4% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
96% | 4% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 21.5 | 96% |
| O/U 23.5 | 95% |
| O/U 24.5 | 95% |
| O/U 25.5 | 94% |
| O/U 26.5 | 93% |
| O/U 27.5 | 92% |
| Saints O/U 10.5 | 92% |
| O/U 28.5 | 91% |
| Saints O/U 12.5 | 91% |
| Saints O/U 13.5 | 89% |
| O/U 29.5 | 87% |
| O/U 31.5 | 87% |
| Raiders O/U 10.5 | 87% |
| O/U 30.5 | 86% |
| Saints O/U 16.5 | 86% |
| 2Q O/U 6.5 | 85% |
| O/U 32.5 | 83% |
| Raiders O/U 12.5 | 82% |
| Raiders O/U 13.5 | 82% |
| O/U 33.5 | 80% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 79% |
| 4Q O/U 6.5 | 79% |
| O/U 34.5 | 78% |
| Saints O/U 19.5 | 78% |
| Raiders O/U 16.5 | 76% |
| O/U 35.5 | 74% |
| O/U 36.5 | 73% |
| 1H O/U 16.5 | 73% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 70% |
| O/U 37.5 | 69% |
| 3Q O/U 6.5 | 68% |
| Saints 1H O/U 6.5 | 68% |
| O/U 38.5 | 67% |
| 1Q O/U 6.5 | 66% |
| O/U 39.5 | 63% |
| 1H O/U 19.5 | 62% |
| Saints O/U 20.5 | 62% |
| Raiders 1H O/U 6.5 | 61% |
| 2H O/U 16.5 | 60% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 60% |
| Spread -1.5 | 59% |
| O/U 40.5 | 59% |
| Spread -2.5 | 57% |
| O/U 41.5 | 56% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 2Q | 56% |
| 3Q O/U 5.5 | 55% |
| O/U 42.5 | 54% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 4Q | 54% |
| Raiders O/U 19.5 | 54% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 3Q | 53% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 53% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 53% |
| Saints 1H O/U 13.5 | 53% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 52% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 52% |
| O/U 43.5 | 51% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 51% |
| Saints O/U 23.5 | 51% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| Safety? | 50% |
| Team to Record Longest FG | 50% |
| Raiders Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Saints Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Raiders vs. Saints: Total Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Raiders Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Saints Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 25.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Saints 1H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Saints 1H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Saints 1H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Raiders 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Raiders 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Raiders 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Raiders 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Raiders 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Raiders 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Raiders 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Raiders 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Saints 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Saints 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Saints 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Saints 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Saints 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Saints 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Saints 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Saints 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 1Q | 49% |
| Spread -3.5 | 48% |
| 1H O/U 22.5 | 48% |
| 2H O/U 22.5 | 48% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 48% |
| Raiders O/U 20.5 | 48% |
| O/U 44.5 | 47% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 47% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 46% |
| Raiders 1H O/U 10.5 | 46% |
| Spread -4.5 | 45% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 44% |
| O/U 45.5 | 43% |
| Spread -5.5 | 43% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 43% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 43% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 43% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 43% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 42% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 42% |
| 1H Moneyline | 41% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 41% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 40% |
| O/U 46.5 | 40% |
| 2Q O/U 14.5 | 40% |
| Raiders vs. Saints | 39% |
| Spread -6.5 | 39% |
| Saints O/U 26.5 | 39% |
| O/U 47.5 | 38% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 38% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 38% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 37% |
| O/U 48.5 | 37% |
| Raiders 1H O/U 13.5 | 37% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 36% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 36% |
| Saints 1H O/U 16.5 | 36% |
| O/U 49.5 | 35% |
| 1H O/U 25.5 | 35% |
| Raiders O/U 23.5 | 35% |
| Spread -1.5 | 34% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 34% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 34% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 34% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 34% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 34% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 34% |
| 4Q O/U 14.5 | 34% |
| Spread -7.5 | 33% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 33% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 33% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 33% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 33% |
| 2H O/U 28.5 | 33% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 33% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 32% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 32% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 32% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 31% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 31% |
| O/U 50.5 | 31% |
| Saints O/U 27.5 | 31% |
| Raiders 1H O/U 16.5 | 31% |
| Saints 1H O/U 19.5 | 31% |
| Spread -2.5 | 30% |
| Spread -8.5 | 30% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 30% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 30% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 30% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 29% |
| Raiders 1H O/U 17.5 | 29% |
| O/U 51.5 | 28% |
| Spread -9.5 | 28% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 28% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 28% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 28% |
| Raiders 1H O/U 12.5 | 28% |
| Saints 1H O/U 20.5 | 28% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 27% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 27% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 27% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 27% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 27% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 27% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 27% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 27% |
| Spread -3.5 | 26% |
| Spread -10.5 | 26% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 26% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 26% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 26% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 26% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 26% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 26% |
| O/U 52.5 | 26% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 26% |
| Raiders 1H O/U 19.5 | 26% |
| Raiders 1H O/U 20.5 | 26% |
| O/U 53.5 | 25% |
| Spread -4.5 | 25% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 25% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 25% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 24% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 24% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 24% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 24% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 24% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 24% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 23% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 23% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 23% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 23% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 23% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 23% |
| Raiders O/U 26.5 | 23% |
| Spread -5.5 | 22% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 22% |
| O/U 54.5 | 22% |
| Spread -13.5 | 21% |
| 1H O/U 28.5 | 21% |
| Saints O/U 30.5 | 21% |
| Spread -6.5 | 20% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 20% |
| O/U 55.5 | 19% |
| Spread -14.5 | 19% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 19% |
| O/U 56.5 | 19% |
| Spread -16.5 | 17% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 17% |
| O/U 57.5 | 16% |
| Exact Margin: Raiders by 25+ | 16% |
| Exact Margin: Raiders by 7-12 | 16% |
| Exact Margin: Saints by 14-20 | 16% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 16% |
| Exact Margin: Saints by 1-6 | 15% |
| Exact Margin: Saints by 7-13 | 15% |
| Spread -7.5 | 15% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 15% |
| Exact Margin: Raiders by 19-24 | 14% |
| Exact Margin: Raiders by 13-18 | 14% |
| Exact Margin: Raiders by 1-6 | 14% |
| Exact Margin: Tie | 14% |
| Exact Margin: Saints by 21+ | 14% |
| Spread -9.5 | 14% |
| Spread -17.5 | 14% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 14% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 14% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 14% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 14% |
| O/U 58.5 | 14% |
| 3Q O/U 14.5 | 14% |
| Raiders O/U 27.5 | 14% |
| Saints O/U 34.5 | 14% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 13% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 13% |
| O/U 59.5 | 12% |
| Spread -8.5 | 12% |
| O/U 61.5 | 11% |
| Spread -10.5 | 11% |
| Spread -19.5 | 11% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 11% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 11% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 11% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 11% |
| O/U 60.5 | 11% |
| 1Q O/U 14.5 | 11% |
| Spread -20.5 | 10% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 10% |
| O/U 62.5 | 10% |
| Raiders O/U 30.5 | 10% |
| Spread -21.5 | 9% |
| Spread -13.5 | 8% |
| O/U 64.5 | 8% |
| Raiders O/U 34.5 | 8% |
| Spread -14.5 | 7% |
| Spread -19.5 | 7% |
| Spread -16.5 | 5% |
| Spread -17.5 | 5% |
| Spread -20.5 | 5% |
| Spread -21.5 | 5% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 96% YES probability for Raiders vs. Saints. In the upcoming NFL game, scheduled for September 27 at 4:25PM ET: If Raiders wins, the market will resolve to "Raiders". If Saints wins, the market will resolve to "Saints". If the game is postponed,…
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $321K.
Methodology
This page tracks Raiders vs. Saints across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. For users geo-blocked from Polymarket directly, brokers like Trump Prediction provide a 0%-fee route into the same order book.
Resolution & payout
Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.
Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- How accurate are political prediction markets?
- Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.
- Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?
- Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Trump Prediction route into the same order book at 0% fees.
- How fast do political markets react to news?
- High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.
- Are political prediction markets legal in my country?
- It varies. They sit in legal gray areas in most jurisdictions. Polymarket is geo-blocked from US/UK/EU; some broker frontends have a different geo footprint. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose, and only if you understand the legal status in your jurisdiction.
- Are UK election prediction markets available from the UK?
- Yes. Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer UKGC-regulated UK election markets (seat counts, party share, constituency results). Polymarket also lists UK election contracts with deeper global liquidity. Betfair winnings are typically tax-free for UK individuals; Polymarket profits are subject to HMRC CGT.
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