Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Trump Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
96% | 4% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
96% | 4% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 26.5 | 96% |
| O/U 28.5 | 96% |
| Bills O/U 10.5 | 96% |
| O/U 30.5 | 94% |
| 2Q O/U 5.5 | 94% |
| O/U 31.5 | 93% |
| O/U 24.5 | 93% |
| O/U 32.5 | 92% |
| 4Q O/U 5.5 | 91% |
| Bills O/U 12.5 | 91% |
| Bills O/U 13.5 | 91% |
| Bills O/U 16.5 | 91% |
| O/U 33.5 | 90% |
| 2Q O/U 6.5 | 90% |
| O/U 34.5 | 89% |
| Bills O/U 19.5 | 89% |
| Bills 1H O/U 6.5 | 89% |
| O/U 35.5 | 88% |
| 1Q O/U 5.5 | 88% |
| O/U 36.5 | 86% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 86% |
| 3Q O/U 5.5 | 86% |
| 4Q O/U 6.5 | 86% |
| Patriots O/U 10.5 | 86% |
| Patriots O/U 12.5 | 85% |
| O/U 37.5 | 84% |
| 1H O/U 16.5 | 84% |
| Patriots O/U 13.5 | 83% |
| O/U 38.5 | 82% |
| Bills O/U 20.5 | 82% |
| O/U 39.5 | 80% |
| O/U 40.5 | 78% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 78% |
| 1H O/U 19.5 | 76% |
| 1Q O/U 6.5 | 76% |
| 3Q O/U 6.5 | 76% |
| Bills 1H O/U 12.5 | 76% |
| Patriots 1H O/U 6.5 | 74% |
| Bills O/U 23.5 | 73% |
| Spread -1.5 | 72% |
| O/U 41.5 | 72% |
| O/U 42.5 | 72% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 71% |
| Patriots O/U 16.5 | 71% |
| Spread -2.5 | 70% |
| O/U 43.5 | 69% |
| O/U 44.5 | 67% |
| 2H O/U 22.5 | 65% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 65% |
| O/U 45.5 | 64% |
| Bills 1H O/U 10.5 | 64% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 63% |
| 1H O/U 22.5 | 63% |
| 2H O/U 19.5 | 63% |
| Bills O/U 26.5 | 63% |
| Spread -3.5 | 62% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 62% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 61% |
| O/U 46.5 | 61% |
| Patriots O/U 19.5 | 61% |
| 2H O/U 25.5 | 60% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 60% |
| Bills 1H O/U 13.5 | 60% |
| Spread -4.5 | 59% |
| O/U 47.5 | 59% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 59% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 2Q | 59% |
| Bills O/U 27.5 | 57% |
| O/U 48.5 | 56% |
| Spread -5.5 | 56% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 56% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 55% |
| Spread -6.5 | 54% |
| O/U 49.5 | 54% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 54% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 54% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 53% |
| Patriots O/U 20.5 | 53% |
| 2H O/U 16.5 | 52% |
| Patriots 2H O/U 6.5 | 52% |
| Patriots 2H O/U 10.5 | 52% |
| Patriots 2H O/U 16.5 | 52% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 51% |
| 2Q O/U 14.5 | 51% |
| Patriots 1H O/U 12.5 | 51% |
| Patriots 2H O/U 12.5 | 51% |
| Patriots 2H O/U 13.5 | 51% |
| Patriots 2H O/U 17.5 | 51% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 4Q | 51% |
| O/U 50.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| Patriots 1H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Patriots 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Patriots 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Bills 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Bills 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Bills 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Bills 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Bills 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Bills 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Bills 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Bills 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Patriots by 25+ | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Patriots by 13-18 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Patriots by 7-12 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Bills by 7-13 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Bills by 21+ | 50% |
| Team to Record Longest FG | 50% |
| Patriots Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Bills Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Patriots vs. Bills: Total Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Patriots Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Bills Total Touchdowns: O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 49% |
| 1H O/U 25.5 | 49% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 48% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 48% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 48% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 47% |
| O/U 51.5 | 46% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 46% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 46% |
| Exact Margin: Bills by 1-6 | 46% |
| Spread -7.5 | 45% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 45% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 45% |
| 4Q O/U 14.5 | 45% |
| Bills 1H O/U 16.5 | 44% |
| Exact Margin: Patriots by 1-6 | 44% |
| O/U 52.5 | 43% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 43% |
| Bills O/U 30.5 | 43% |
| Spread -8.5 | 42% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 42% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 3Q | 42% |
| Spread -9.5 | 41% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 41% |
| O/U 53.5 | 40% |
| Patriots O/U 23.5 | 40% |
| O/U 54.5 | 39% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 38% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 38% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 38% |
| Exact Margin: Tie | 38% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 37% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 37% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 1Q | 37% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 37% |
| Spread -10.5 | 36% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 35% |
| 1H O/U 28.5 | 35% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 35% |
| Bills 1H O/U 17.5 | 35% |
| O/U 55.5 | 34% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 34% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 34% |
| 2H O/U 28.5 | 34% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 33% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 33% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 32% |
| Spread -13.5 | 31% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 31% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 31% |
| O/U 56.5 | 31% |
| Patriots 1H O/U 13.5 | 31% |
| 1H Moneyline | 31% |
| O/U 57.5 | 30% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 30% |
| Patriots O/U 26.5 | 30% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 28% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 28% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 28% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 28% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 28% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 28% |
| Bills 1H O/U 19.5 | 28% |
| Patriots vs. Bills | 27% |
| Spread -14.5 | 27% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 27% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 26% |
| O/U 58.5 | 26% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 25% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 25% |
| Spread -1.5 | 24% |
| Spread -16.5 | 24% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 24% |
| Patriots O/U 27.5 | 24% |
| Bills 1H O/U 20.5 | 24% |
| O/U 59.5 | 23% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 23% |
| Spread -2.5 | 22% |
| Spread -17.5 | 22% |
| 3Q O/U 14.5 | 22% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 21% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 21% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 21% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 21% |
| O/U 60.5 | 21% |
| O/U 61.5 | 20% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 20% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 20% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 20% |
| Spread -19.5 | 19% |
| Patriots 1H O/U 16.5 | 19% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 18% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 18% |
| O/U 62.5 | 18% |
| O/U 63.5 | 17% |
| Spread -3.5 | 17% |
| Spread -20.5 | 17% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 17% |
| 1Q O/U 14.5 | 17% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 16% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 16% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 16% |
| Bills O/U 34.5 | 16% |
| Spread -4.5 | 15% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 15% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 15% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 15% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 15% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 15% |
| O/U 64.5 | 15% |
| O/U 65.5 | 14% |
| Spread -5.5 | 14% |
| Spread -21.5 | 14% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 14% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 14% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 14% |
| Patriots 1H O/U 17.5 | 13% |
| O/U 67.5 | 12% |
| Spread -6.5 | 12% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 12% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 12% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 12% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 11% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 11% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 11% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 11% |
| Patriots O/U 30.5 | 11% |
| Spread -7.5 | 10% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 10% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 10% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 10% |
| Patriots 1H O/U 19.5 | 10% |
| Exact Margin: Bills by 14-20 | 10% |
| O/U 69.5 | 9% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 9% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 9% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 9% |
| Spread -8.5 | 8% |
| Spread -9.5 | 8% |
| Spread -21.5 | 8% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 8% |
| Patriots O/U 34.5 | 8% |
| Spread -10.5 | 7% |
| Spread -20.5 | 7% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 7% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 7% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 7% |
| Safety? | 7% |
| O/U 71.5 | 6% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 6% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 6% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 6% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 6% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 6% |
| Patriots 1H O/U 20.5 | 6% |
| Spread -13.5 | 5% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 5% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 5% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 5% |
| Spread -14.5 | 4% |
| Spread -16.5 | 4% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 4% |
| Spread -17.5 | 3% |
| Spread -19.5 | 3% |
| Exact Margin: Patriots by 19-24 | 1% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 96% YES probability for Patriots vs. Bills. In the upcoming NFL game, scheduled for October 4 at 1:00PM ET: If Patriots wins, the market will resolve to "Patriots". If Bills wins, the market will resolve to "Bills". If the game is postponed, th…
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $896K.
Methodology
Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Patriots vs. Bills plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.
Resolution & payout
Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.
Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- How accurate are political prediction markets?
- Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.
- What resolution source is used for elections?
- Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.
- How fast do political markets react to news?
- High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.
- Are political prediction markets legal in my country?
- It varies. They sit in legal gray areas in most jurisdictions. Polymarket is geo-blocked from US/UK/EU; some broker frontends have a different geo footprint. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose, and only if you understand the legal status in your jurisdiction.
- Are UK election prediction markets available from the UK?
- Yes. Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer UKGC-regulated UK election markets (seat counts, party share, constituency results). Polymarket also lists UK election contracts with deeper global liquidity. Betfair winnings are typically tax-free for UK individuals; Polymarket profits are subject to HMRC CGT.
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