Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Trump Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
88% | 12% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
88% | 12% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Dontayvion Wicks: Receiving Yards O/U 9.5 | 88% |
| Dontayvion Wicks: Receptions O/U 1.5 | 80% |
| Dontayvion Wicks: Receiving Yards O/U 19.5 | 78% |
| Kyle Monangai: Rushing Yards O/U 9.5 | 74% |
| Luther Burden III: Receiving Yards O/U 9.5 | 71% |
| Dontayvion Wicks: Receiving Yards O/U 29.5 | 69% |
| Saquon Barkley: Rushing Yards O/U 59.5 | 65% |
| Saquon Barkley: Rushing Yards O/U 49.5 | 65% |
| Dontayvion Wicks: Receptions O/U 2.5 | 61% |
| Luther Burden III: Receiving Yards O/U 29.5 | 58% |
| Dontayvion Wicks: Receiving Yards O/U 39.5 | 56% |
| Saquon Barkley: Rushing Yards O/U 29.5 | 52% |
| Dallas Goedert: Receptions O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Caleb Williams: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Dallas Goedert: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Hollywood Brown: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Roschon Johnson: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Sam Roush: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Saquon Barkley: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Zavion Thomas: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Caleb Williams: Passing Completions O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Caleb Williams: Passing Completions O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Caleb Williams: Passing Completions O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Caleb Williams: Team First TD (Chicago Bears) | 50% |
| Dallas Goedert: Team First TD (Philadelphia Eagles) | 50% |
| Hollywood Brown: Team First TD (Philadelphia Eagles) | 50% |
| Caleb Williams: Rushing Yards O/U 9.5 | 49% |
| Caleb Williams: Rushing Yards O/U 19.5 | 49% |
| Caleb Williams: Rushing Yards O/U 29.5 | 49% |
| Dallas Goedert: Receiving Yards O/U 9.5 | 49% |
| DeVonta Smith: Receiving Yards O/U 29.5 | 49% |
| Jalen Hurts: Passing Yards O/U 124.5 | 48% |
| Saquon Barkley: Receptions O/U 0.5 | 47% |
| Caleb Williams: Anytime Touchdown | 47% |
| Caleb Williams: Passing Attempts O/U 31.5 | 47% |
| Caleb Williams: Passing Attempts O/U 35.5 | 47% |
| DeVonta Smith: Receptions O/U 2.5 | 47% |
| Makai Lemon: Receptions O/U 0.5 | 47% |
| Rome Odunze: Receptions O/U 0.5 | 47% |
| D'Andre Swift: Receptions O/U 0.5 | 46% |
| Dallas Goedert: Anytime Touchdown | 46% |
| Jalen Hurts: Passing Attempts O/U 23.5 | 45% |
| Colston Loveland: Receiving Yards O/U 9.5 | 45% |
| Jalen Hurts: Passing Yards O/U 149.5 | 44% |
| Colston Loveland: Receptions O/U 3.5 | 44% |
| D'Andre Swift: Rushing Yards O/U 29.5 | 44% |
| Jalen Hurts: Passing Completions O/U 15.5 | 43% |
| Jalen Hurts: Rushing Yards O/U 9.5 | 43% |
| Saquon Barkley: Rushing Yards O/U 39.5 | 43% |
| Luther Burden III: Receptions O/U 1.5 | 43% |
| Makai Lemon: Receiving Yards O/U 9.5 | 42% |
| DeVonta Smith: Receptions O/U 3.5 | 42% |
| Dontayvion Wicks: Receptions O/U 3.5 | 42% |
| Colston Loveland: Receptions O/U 1.5 | 42% |
| Tank Bigsby: Rushing Yards O/U 4.5 | 42% |
| Jalen Hurts: Passing Touchdowns O/U 0.5 | 41% |
| D'Andre Swift: Rushing Yards O/U 69.5 | 41% |
| D'Andre Swift: Anytime Touchdown | 41% |
| DeVonta Smith: Longest Reception O/U 19.5 | 41% |
| DeVonta Smith: Receiving Yards O/U 39.5 | 41% |
| Dontayvion Wicks: Receiving Yards O/U 49.5 | 41% |
| Luther Burden III: Receiving Yards O/U 19.5 | 41% |
| Kyle Monangai: Rushing Yards O/U 19.5 | 41% |
| D'Andre Swift: Rushing Yards O/U 39.5 | 40% |
| Cole Kmet: Receptions O/U 0.5 | 40% |
| Jalen Hurts: Passing Yards O/U 174.5 | 39% |
| Jalen Hurts: Anytime Touchdown | 39% |
| Kalif Raymond: Receiving Yards O/U 9.5 | 39% |
| Makai Lemon: Receptions O/U 1.5 | 38% |
| Kalif Raymond: Receptions O/U 1.5 | 38% |
| Jalen Hurts: Rushing Yards O/U 14.5 | 38% |
| Colston Loveland: Receiving Yards O/U 19.5 | 38% |
| DeVonta Smith: Receiving Yards O/U 49.5 | 37% |
| Johnny Mundt: Receptions O/U 0.5 | 37% |
| Rome Odunze: Receptions O/U 1.5 | 36% |
| DeVonta Smith: Receptions O/U 4.5 | 35% |
| Luther Burden III: Receptions O/U 2.5 | 35% |
| Dontayvion Wicks: Longest Reception O/U 19.5 | 35% |
| Makai Lemon: Receiving Yards O/U 14.5 | 35% |
| Caleb Williams: Passing Touchdowns O/U 2.5 | 34% |
| Caleb Williams: Passing Touchdowns O/U 3.5 | 34% |
| Kalif Raymond: Receiving Yards O/U 14.5 | 34% |
| Kyle Monangai: Rushing Yards O/U 29.5 | 34% |
| D'Andre Swift: Rushing Yards O/U 49.5 | 33% |
| Saquon Barkley: Receptions O/U 1.5 | 33% |
| DeVonta Smith: Anytime Touchdown | 33% |
| Dontayvion Wicks: Receiving Yards O/U 59.5 | 33% |
| Makai Lemon: Receiving Yards O/U 19.5 | 33% |
| Caleb Williams: Passing Yards O/U 224.5 | 32% |
| Caleb Williams: Passing Yards O/U 249.5 | 32% |
| Caleb Williams: Passing Yards O/U 274.5 | 32% |
| Jalen Hurts: Passing Yards O/U 199.5 | 32% |
| D'Andre Swift: Rushing Yards O/U 79.5 | 32% |
| Jalen Hurts: Rushing Yards O/U 19.5 | 32% |
| DeVonta Smith: Receiving Yards O/U 59.5 | 32% |
| Rome Odunze: Receiving Yards O/U 19.5 | 32% |
| Colston Loveland: Receptions O/U 2.5 | 32% |
| Caleb Williams: Passing Touchdowns O/U 0.5 | 31% |
| Saquon Barkley: Receiving Yards O/U 9.5 | 31% |
| Caleb Williams: Passing Attempts O/U 27.5 | 31% |
| Makai Lemon: Receiving Yards O/U 34.5 | 31% |
| Kalif Raymond: Receiving Yards O/U 19.5 | 30% |
| D'Andre Swift: Receptions O/U 1.5 | 29% |
| Caleb Williams: Passing Yards O/U 174.5 | 28% |
| D'Andre Swift: Rushing Yards O/U 59.5 | 28% |
| Saquon Barkley: Rushing Yards O/U 69.5 | 28% |
| Colston Loveland: Receiving Yards O/U 29.5 | 28% |
| D'Andre Swift: Receiving Yards O/U 9.5 | 28% |
| DeVonta Smith: Receiving Yards O/U 69.5 | 28% |
| Kyle Monangai: Anytime Touchdown | 28% |
| Jalen Hurts: Passing Completions O/U 17.5 | 28% |
| Makai Lemon: Receiving Yards O/U 24.5 | 28% |
| Makai Lemon: Receptions O/U 2.5 | 28% |
| Tank Bigsby: Rushing Yards O/U 9.5 | 28% |
| DeVonta Smith: Receptions O/U 5.5 | 27% |
| Colston Loveland: Longest Reception O/U 19.5 | 27% |
| Luther Burden III: Longest Reception O/U 19.5 | 27% |
| Rome Odunze: Longest Reception O/U 19.5 | 27% |
| Jalen Hurts: Passing Attempts O/U 27.5 | 27% |
| Jalen Hurts: Passing Attempts O/U 31.5 | 27% |
| Jalen Hurts: Passing Completions O/U 19.5 | 27% |
| Britain Covey: Team First TD (Philadelphia Eagles) | 27% |
| Colston Loveland: Team First TD (Chicago Bears) | 27% |
| Darius Cooper: Team First TD (Philadelphia Eagles) | 27% |
| Dontayvion Wicks: Team First TD (Philadelphia Eagles) | 27% |
| E.J. Jenkins: Team First TD (Philadelphia Eagles) | 27% |
| Jalen Hurts: Team First TD (Philadelphia Eagles) | 27% |
| Johnny Mundt: Team First TD (Philadelphia Eagles) | 27% |
| Makai Lemon: Team First TD (Philadelphia Eagles) | 27% |
| Sam Roush: Team First TD (Chicago Bears) | 27% |
| Saquon Barkley: Team First TD (Philadelphia Eagles) | 27% |
| Tank Bigsby: Team First TD (Philadelphia Eagles) | 27% |
| Will Shipley: Team First TD (Philadelphia Eagles) | 27% |
| Zavion Thomas: Team First TD (Chicago Bears) | 27% |
| Jalen Hurts: Rushing Yards O/U 24.5 | 27% |
| Jalen Hurts: Rushing Yards O/U 34.5 | 27% |
| Elijah Moore: Team First TD (Philadelphia Eagles) | 27% |
| Kalif Raymond: Receptions O/U 2.5 | 27% |
| Saquon Barkley: Receiving Yards O/U 19.5 | 26% |
| Rome Odunze: Receptions O/U 4.5 | 26% |
| Hollywood Brown: Anytime Touchdown | 26% |
| D'Andre Swift: Team First TD (Chicago Bears) | 26% |
| Kalif Raymond: Team First TD (Chicago Bears) | 26% |
| Kyle Monangai: Team First TD (Chicago Bears) | 26% |
| Roschon Johnson: Team First TD (Chicago Bears) | 26% |
| Dontayvion Wicks: Receptions O/U 4.5 | 26% |
| Makai Lemon: Receiving Yards O/U 29.5 | 26% |
| Kalif Raymond: Receiving Yards O/U 24.5 | 26% |
| Kalif Raymond: Receiving Yards O/U 34.5 | 26% |
| Kyle Monangai: Rushing Yards O/U 39.5 | 26% |
| Cole Kmet: Receiving Yards O/U 19.5 | 26% |
| Cole Kmet: Receiving Yards O/U 9.5 | 25% |
| Rome Odunze: Receiving Yards O/U 39.5 | 25% |
| Luther Burden III: Receptions O/U 3.5 | 25% |
| Cole Kmet: Team First TD (Chicago Bears) | 25% |
| DeVonta Smith: Team First TD (Philadelphia Eagles) | 25% |
| Jahdae Walker: Team First TD (Chicago Bears) | 25% |
| Luther Burden III: Team First TD (Chicago Bears) | 25% |
| Rome Odunze: Team First TD (Chicago Bears) | 25% |
| Dontayvion Wicks: Receiving Yards O/U 69.5 | 25% |
| Kalif Raymond: Receiving Yards O/U 29.5 | 25% |
| Jalen Hurts: Passing Yards O/U 224.5 | 24% |
| D'Andre Swift: Receiving Yards O/U 19.5 | 24% |
| Luther Burden III: Receiving Yards O/U 39.5 | 24% |
| Rome Odunze: Receptions O/U 3.5 | 24% |
| Saquon Barkley: Receiving Yards O/U 14.5 | 24% |
| Rome Odunze: Receiving Yards O/U 29.5 | 24% |
| D'Andre Swift: Receiving Yards O/U 14.5 | 24% |
| Jalen Hurts: Passing Touchdowns O/U 1.5 | 23% |
| DeVonta Smith: Receiving Yards O/U 79.5 | 23% |
| Cole Kmet: Receptions O/U 1.5 | 23% |
| Rome Odunze: Receptions O/U 2.5 | 23% |
| Tank Bigsby: 2+ Touchdowns | 23% |
| Tank Bigsby: Rushing Yards O/U 14.5 | 23% |
| Saquon Barkley: Rushing Yards O/U 79.5 | 22% |
| Tank Bigsby: Rushing Yards O/U 34.5 | 22% |
| Caleb Williams: Passing Yards O/U 199.5 | 21% |
| Jalen Hurts: Rushing Yards O/U 29.5 | 21% |
| Colston Loveland: Receiving Yards O/U 39.5 | 21% |
| Saquon Barkley: Receptions O/U 2.5 | 21% |
| Makai Lemon: Receiving Yards O/U 44.5 | 21% |
| D'Andre Swift: Receptions O/U 2.5 | 20% |
| Dontayvion Wicks: Anytime Touchdown | 20% |
| Dontayvion Wicks: Receiving Yards O/U 79.5 | 20% |
| DeVonta Smith: Receptions O/U 6.5 | 20% |
| Johnny Mundt: Receptions O/U 1.5 | 20% |
| Kyle Monangai: Rushing Yards O/U 49.5 | 19% |
| Luther Burden III: Receiving Yards O/U 49.5 | 19% |
| Colston Loveland: Anytime Touchdown | 19% |
| Luther Burden III: Anytime Touchdown | 19% |
| D'Andre Swift: Receiving Yards O/U 34.5 | 19% |
| Saquon Barkley: Rushing Yards O/U 89.5 | 18% |
| DeVonta Smith: Receiving Yards O/U 89.5 | 18% |
| Luther Burden III: Receptions O/U 4.5 | 18% |
| Saquon Barkley: Receiving Yards O/U 34.5 | 18% |
| Makai Lemon: Receiving Yards O/U 39.5 | 18% |
| Makai Lemon: Receptions O/U 3.5 | 18% |
| Kalif Raymond: Receptions O/U 3.5 | 18% |
| Cole Kmet: Receiving Yards O/U 14.5 | 18% |
| Jalen Hurts: Passing Yards O/U 249.5 | 17% |
| Jalen Hurts: Rushing Yards O/U 44.5 | 17% |
| Kalif Raymond: Receiving Yards O/U 44.5 | 17% |
| Tank Bigsby: Rushing Yards O/U 19.5 | 17% |
| Saquon Barkley: Receiving Yards O/U 29.5 | 16% |
| Colston Loveland: Receptions O/U 4.5 | 15% |
| Kalif Raymond: Receiving Yards O/U 39.5 | 15% |
| Jalen Hurts: Rushing Yards O/U 39.5 | 14% |
| Colston Loveland: Receiving Yards O/U 49.5 | 14% |
| D'Andre Swift: Receiving Yards O/U 29.5 | 14% |
| Rome Odunze: Receiving Yards O/U 79.5 | 14% |
| Rome Odunze: Anytime Touchdown | 14% |
| DeVonta Smith: Receiving Yards O/U 99.5 | 14% |
| Saquon Barkley: Receiving Yards O/U 24.5 | 14% |
| DeVonta Smith: Receptions O/U 7.5 | 14% |
| Dontayvion Wicks: Receptions O/U 5.5 | 14% |
| D'Andre Swift: Receiving Yards O/U 24.5 | 14% |
| Caleb Williams: Passing Touchdowns O/U 1.5 | 13% |
| Saquon Barkley: Rushing Yards O/U 99.5 | 13% |
| Luther Burden III: Receiving Yards O/U 59.5 | 13% |
| Rome Odunze: Receiving Yards O/U 59.5 | 13% |
| Rome Odunze: Receiving Yards O/U 69.5 | 13% |
| D'Andre Swift: Rushing Yards O/U 89.5 | 13% |
| Kyle Monangai: Rushing Yards O/U 59.5 | 13% |
| Cole Kmet: Receiving Yards O/U 29.5 | 13% |
| Tank Bigsby: Rushing Yards O/U 24.5 | 13% |
| Rome Odunze: Receiving Yards O/U 49.5 | 12% |
| Jalen Hurts: Passing Yards O/U 274.5 | 12% |
| DeVonta Smith: Receiving Yards O/U 109.5 | 12% |
| Saquon Barkley: Receptions O/U 3.5 | 12% |
| Colston Loveland: Receiving Yards O/U 59.5 | 11% |
| Makai Lemon: Receptions O/U 4.5 | 11% |
| Kalif Raymond: Receptions O/U 4.5 | 11% |
| Luther Burden III: Receptions O/U 5.5 | 11% |
| D'Andre Swift: Receptions O/U 3.5 | 11% |
| Cole Kmet: Receptions O/U 2.5 | 11% |
| Tank Bigsby: Rushing Yards O/U 29.5 | 10% |
| Colston Loveland: Receptions O/U 5.5 | 10% |
| Makai Lemon: Anytime Touchdown | 10% |
| Saquon Barkley: 2+ Touchdowns | 10% |
| Saquon Barkley: Rushing Yards O/U 109.5 | 10% |
| DeVonta Smith: Receptions O/U 8.5 | 10% |
| Kyle Monangai: Rushing Yards O/U 69.5 | 10% |
| Cole Kmet: Receiving Yards O/U 24.5 | 10% |
| Johnny Mundt: Receptions O/U 2.5 | 10% |
| Jalen Hurts: Passing Touchdowns O/U 2.5 | 9% |
| Luther Burden III: Receiving Yards O/U 69.5 | 9% |
| Dontayvion Wicks: 2+ Touchdowns | 9% |
| D'Andre Swift: Rushing Yards O/U 99.5 | 9% |
| D'Andre Swift: 2+ Touchdowns | 8% |
| Kalif Raymond: Anytime Touchdown | 8% |
| Jalen Hurts: Rushing Yards O/U 49.5 | 8% |
| Colston Loveland: Receiving Yards O/U 69.5 | 7% |
| Luther Burden III: Receiving Yards O/U 79.5 | 7% |
| Cole Kmet: Anytime Touchdown | 7% |
| Johnny Mundt: Anytime Touchdown | 7% |
| Tank Bigsby: Anytime Touchdown | 7% |
| Will Shipley: Anytime Touchdown | 7% |
| Jalen Hurts: Passing Yards O/U 299.5 | 7% |
| Saquon Barkley: Receptions O/U 4.5 | 7% |
| D'Andre Swift: Rushing Yards O/U 109.5 | 7% |
| Kalif Raymond: Receptions O/U 5.5 | 7% |
| Kyle Monangai: Rushing Yards O/U 79.5 | 7% |
| Saquon Barkley: Receiving Yards O/U 39.5 | 7% |
| Darius Cooper: Anytime Touchdown | 6% |
| Colston Loveland: Receiving Yards O/U 79.5 | 6% |
| Cole Kmet: Receptions O/U 3.5 | 6% |
| D'Andre Swift: Receptions O/U 4.5 | 6% |
| Jalen Hurts: 2+ Touchdowns | 5% |
| Jalen Hurts: Passing Yards O/U 324.5 | 5% |
| Luther Burden III: Receiving Yards O/U 89.5 | 5% |
| Johnny Mundt: Receptions O/U 3.5 | 5% |
| Jalen Hurts: Passing Touchdowns O/U 3.5 | 4% |
| DeVonta Smith: 2+ Touchdowns | 3% |
| Jahdae Walker: Anytime Touchdown | 3% |
| Kyle Monangai: 2+ Touchdowns | 3% |
| Elijah Moore: Anytime Touchdown | 3% |
| Britain Covey: Anytime Touchdown | 2% |
| Colston Loveland: 2+ Touchdowns | 2% |
| E.J. Jenkins: Anytime Touchdown | 2% |
| Makai Lemon: 2+ Touchdowns | 2% |
| Roschon Johnson: Anytime Touchdown | 2% |
| Sam Roush: Anytime Touchdown | 2% |
| Zavion Thomas: Anytime Touchdown | 2% |
| Cole Kmet: 2+ Touchdowns | 1% |
| Kalif Raymond: 2+ Touchdowns | 1% |
| Luther Burden III: 2+ Touchdowns | 1% |
| Rome Odunze: 2+ Touchdowns | 1% |
| Will Shipley: 2+ Touchdowns | 1% |
| Britain Covey: 2+ Touchdowns | 0% |
| Darius Cooper: 2+ Touchdowns | 0% |
| E.J. Jenkins: 2+ Touchdowns | 0% |
| Jahdae Walker: 2+ Touchdowns | 0% |
| Johnny Mundt: 2+ Touchdowns | 0% |
| Elijah Moore: 2+ Touchdowns | 0% |
Market context
Market consensus: 88% chance of eagles vs. bears - player props. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. Player prop markets for the NFL game between the Eagles and Bears, scheduled for September 28 at 8:15 PM ET.
Methodology
Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Eagles vs. Bears - Player Props plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.
Resolution & payout
For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- How accurate are political prediction markets?
- Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.
- What resolution source is used for elections?
- Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.
- Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?
- Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Trump Prediction route into the same order book at 0% fees.
- Are political prediction markets legal in my country?
- It varies. They sit in legal gray areas in most jurisdictions. Polymarket is geo-blocked from US/UK/EU; some broker frontends have a different geo footprint. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose, and only if you understand the legal status in your jurisdiction.
- Are UK election prediction markets available from the UK?
- Yes. Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer UKGC-regulated UK election markets (seat counts, party share, constituency results). Polymarket also lists UK election contracts with deeper global liquidity. Betfair winnings are typically tax-free for UK individuals; Polymarket profits are subject to HMRC CGT.
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