Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Trump Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
93% | 7% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
93% | 7% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 24.5 | 93% |
| O/U 26.5 | 91% |
| Giants O/U 10.5 | 88% |
| O/U 28.5 | 86% |
| Commanders O/U 10.5 | 84% |
| 1Q O/U 5.5 | 81% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 81% |
| O/U 30.5 | 80% |
| Giants O/U 12.5 | 80% |
| O/U 32.5 | 78% |
| 2Q O/U 6.5 | 78% |
| Commanders O/U 12.5 | 78% |
| 4Q O/U 6.5 | 76% |
| Giants O/U 13.5 | 76% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 75% |
| Giants 1H O/U 6.5 | 74% |
| 3Q O/U 6.5 | 73% |
| Commanders O/U 13.5 | 73% |
| O/U 34.5 | 71% |
| Giants O/U 16.5 | 71% |
| Commanders 1H O/U 6.5 | 70% |
| 1H O/U 16.5 | 66% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 65% |
| O/U 36.5 | 65% |
| Commanders O/U 16.5 | 65% |
| 1Q O/U 6.5 | 64% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 62% |
| Giants O/U 19.5 | 61% |
| O/U 38.5 | 60% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 59% |
| 1H O/U 19.5 | 59% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 58% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 55% |
| Giants O/U 20.5 | 55% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 54% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 54% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 54% |
| Spread -1.5 | 53% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 53% |
| O/U 40.5 | 53% |
| Commanders O/U 19.5 | 53% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 52% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 52% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 52% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 52% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 52% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 52% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 52% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 52% |
| Spread -2.5 | 51% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 51% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 51% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 51% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 51% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 51% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 51% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 51% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 51% |
| 2H O/U 16.5 | 51% |
| 2H O/U 19.5 | 51% |
| 2H O/U 22.5 | 51% |
| 2H O/U 25.5 | 51% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 51% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Commanders 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Commanders 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Commanders 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Commanders 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Commanders 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Commanders 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Commanders 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Commanders 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Giants 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Giants 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Giants 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Giants 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Giants 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Giants 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Giants 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Giants 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 1Q | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 2Q | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 3Q | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 4Q | 50% |
| Commanders Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Giants Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Commanders vs. Giants: Total Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Commanders Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Giants Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Commanders Total Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 49% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 49% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 49% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 48% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 48% |
| 1H Moneyline | 47% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 46% |
| O/U 42.5 | 46% |
| Commanders O/U 20.5 | 46% |
| Commanders 1H O/U 12.5 | 46% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 45% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 45% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 45% |
| Commanders vs. Giants | 44% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 44% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 44% |
| 1H O/U 22.5 | 44% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 44% |
| Giants 1H O/U 12.5 | 44% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 43% |
| Giants 1H O/U 10.5 | 43% |
| Spread -1.5 | 42% |
| Spread -3.5 | 42% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 41% |
| Giants O/U 23.5 | 41% |
| Spread -2.5 | 40% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 40% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 40% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 40% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 39% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 39% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 39% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 39% |
| O/U 44.5 | 39% |
| Commanders 1H O/U 10.5 | 39% |
| Spread -4.5 | 38% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 38% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 38% |
| 2Q O/U 14.5 | 38% |
| Spread -5.5 | 37% |
| 2H O/U 28.5 | 36% |
| Commanders 1H O/U 17.5 | 36% |
| Giants 1H O/U 13.5 | 35% |
| O/U 46.5 | 34% |
| Commanders O/U 23.5 | 34% |
| Spread -6.5 | 33% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 33% |
| Spread -3.5 | 31% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 31% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 31% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 31% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 31% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 31% |
| Giants O/U 26.5 | 31% |
| Commanders 1H O/U 13.5 | 31% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 30% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 29% |
| Spread -4.5 | 28% |
| Spread -5.5 | 28% |
| Spread -7.5 | 28% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 28% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 28% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 28% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 28% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 28% |
| 2H Moneyline | 28% |
| Spread -8.5 | 27% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 27% |
| O/U 48.5 | 27% |
| 4Q O/U 14.5 | 27% |
| Commanders O/U 26.5 | 27% |
| Giants O/U 27.5 | 27% |
| 1H O/U 25.5 | 26% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 26% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 25% |
| Spread -9.5 | 24% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 24% |
| O/U 50.5 | 24% |
| Commanders O/U 27.5 | 24% |
| Giants 1H O/U 16.5 | 24% |
| Spread -6.5 | 23% |
| 3Q O/U 14.5 | 23% |
| Giants 1H O/U 19.5 | 23% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 22% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 22% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 22% |
| Spread -10.5 | 21% |
| Commanders O/U 30.5 | 21% |
| Giants O/U 30.5 | 21% |
| Giants O/U 34.5 | 21% |
| Commanders 1H O/U 19.5 | 21% |
| Giants 1H O/U 17.5 | 21% |
| Giants 1H O/U 20.5 | 21% |
| Spread -7.5 | 20% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 20% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 20% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 20% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 20% |
| O/U 52.5 | 20% |
| 1H O/U 28.5 | 20% |
| Commanders O/U 34.5 | 20% |
| Commanders 1H O/U 16.5 | 20% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 19% |
| Commanders 1H O/U 20.5 | 19% |
| Spread -8.5 | 18% |
| Spread -9.5 | 18% |
| 1Q O/U 14.5 | 18% |
| Spread -13.5 | 17% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 17% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 17% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 17% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 17% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 17% |
| O/U 54.5 | 16% |
| Spread -10.5 | 14% |
| Spread -14.5 | 14% |
| Spread -21.5 | 13% |
| Exact Margin: Giants by 1-6 | 13% |
| Spread -16.5 | 12% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 12% |
| O/U 56.5 | 12% |
| Exact Margin: Commanders by 1-6 | 12% |
| Spread -13.5 | 11% |
| Spread -17.5 | 10% |
| Spread -19.5 | 10% |
| Exact Margin: Commanders by 7-12 | 10% |
| Exact Margin: Giants by 7-13 | 10% |
| O/U 58.5 | 9% |
| Spread -14.5 | 8% |
| Spread -16.5 | 8% |
| Spread -20.5 | 8% |
| O/U 60.5 | 7% |
| Spread -17.5 | 6% |
| Spread -21.5 | 6% |
| Exact Margin: Commanders by 13-18 | 6% |
| Exact Margin: Giants by 14-20 | 6% |
| Exact Margin: Giants by 21+ | 6% |
| O/U 62.5 | 5% |
| O/U 64.5 | 5% |
| Spread -19.5 | 4% |
| Spread -20.5 | 2% |
| Exact Margin: Commanders by 19-24 | 2% |
| Exact Margin: Commanders by 25+ | 1% |
| Exact Margin: Tie | 1% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, commanders vs. giants stands at 93% likelihood according to current market consensus. In the upcoming NFL football game between Commanders and Giants, scheduled for November 12 at 8:15PM ET: This market will resolve to "Commanders" if Commanders win the game. This m…
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $72K.
Methodology
Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Commanders vs. Giants plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.
Resolution & payout
For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- Can prediction markets influence election outcomes?
- Markets reflect expectations rather than create them. Studies show public-facing markets can anchor expectations, but don't influence the underlying outcome. Political markets are information, not advocacy.
- Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?
- Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Trump Prediction route into the same order book at 0% fees.
- How fast do political markets react to news?
- High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.
- Why do Polymarket and Kalshi differ on elections?
- Kalshi must follow CFTC compliance — strict definitions, clear resolution sources, US citizens only with KYC. Polymarket operates globally without CFTC oversight — deeper liquidity, but also higher regulatory risk.
- Are UK election prediction markets available from the UK?
- Yes. Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer UKGC-regulated UK election markets (seat counts, party share, constituency results). Polymarket also lists UK election contracts with deeper global liquidity. Betfair winnings are typically tax-free for UK individuals; Polymarket profits are subject to HMRC CGT.
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