North America Regional Qualifier: Qualify to The International

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The underlying event is the Dota 2 North American Regional Qualifier for The International 2026, which began on June 24 and concluded on June 27, 2026, with one slot awarded to the winner. This tournament, organised by PGL, served as the final regional step on the Road to The International for the North American region[2][3].

Historically, North American teams have struggled to secure TI slots in recent years, often finishing as runners-up in regional qualifiers or failing to advance past open qualifiers. Comparable cases include TI14 and TI15, where no North American team qualified directly from the regionals, leading to a 0% market probability that aligns with this persistent trend of regional underperformance[4][5]. The market is leaning on the catalyst of the official Group Stage participant list, which must be published before August 15, 2026, to resolve the bet; if not, the outcome defaults to "Other"[5].

Traders should monitor the official Dota 2 news entry for the final slot confirmation and any delays in the Group Stage roster publication, as these dependencies directly determine market resolution[5]. Recent announcements from the tournament organiser PGL confirm the qualifier’s completion, but the absence of a North American winner in the final field remains the critical factor[2]. The resolution source is official tournament data, and any cancellation or postponement would trigger the "Other" outcome per the market rules[5].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page tracks North America Regional Qualifier: Qualify to The International across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. Trump Prediction routes every trade through to Polymarket — at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Trump Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Trump Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Trump Prediction?

Zero. Trump Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Trump Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.