Market statistics
- Total volume
- $1.3M
- 24h volume
- $959K
- Liquidity
- $2.9M
- Open interest
- $521K
Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
16% | 84% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
16% | 84% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Available prediction outcomes (120)
Sorted by descending live probability. Click any outcome to trade it on PolyGram.
Market context
This market will resolve according to the player who wins the 2026 PGA Championship scheduled for May 14-17, 2026. If this player misses the cut, withdraws, is disqualified or otherwise eliminated from contention from the PGA Championship based on the official rules of the tournament, the relevant market will resolve to "No". In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by PGA Championship official tournament rules. If multiple winners are anno
Wikipedia Context
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2026 PGA ChampionshipThe 2026 PGA Championship is the 108th edition of the PGA Championship, scheduled for May 14–17 at Aronimink Golf Club in Newtown Square, Pennsylvania, a suburb west of Philadelphia.
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2026 SGB Championship
The 2026 SGB Cab Direct Championship season is the 79th season of the second tier of British Speedway and the 9th known as the SGB Championship.
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2025 PGA ChampionshipThe 2025 PGA Championship was the 107th edition of the PGA Championship and the second of the men's four major golf championships held in 2025. The tournament was held on May 15–18 at the Quail Hollow Club in Charlotte, North Carolina, United States.
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2021 PGA ChampionshipThe 2021 PGA Championship was the 103rd PGA Championship, held May 20–23 in South Carolina at Kiawah Island Golf Resort's Ocean Course on Kiawah Island. It was the second major championship at the Ocean Course, after the PGA Championship in August 2012.
Methodology
Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for 2026 PGA Championship Winner plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.
Resolution & payout
For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.
FAQ
- Can prediction markets influence election outcomes?
- Markets reflect expectations rather than create them. Studies show public-facing markets can anchor expectations, but don't influence the underlying outcome. Political markets are information, not advocacy.
- Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?
- Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like PolyGram route into the same order book at 0% fees.
- How fast do political markets react to news?
- High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.
- Are political prediction markets legal in my country?
- It varies. They sit in legal gray areas in most jurisdictions. Polymarket is geo-blocked from US/UK/EU; some broker frontends have a different geo footprint. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose, and only if you understand the legal status in your jurisdiction.
- Why do Polymarket and Kalshi differ on elections?
- Kalshi must follow CFTC compliance — strict definitions, clear resolution sources, US citizens only with KYC. Polymarket operates globally without CFTC oversight — deeper liquidity, but also higher regulatory risk.
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