Bologna FC 1909 vs. FC Internazionale Milano

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Market context

Bologna will host Inter Milan in a Serie A fixture on 24 May 2026, with the market currently pricing Bologna's victory at 26 per cent implied probability. The settlement window closes at 13:00 GMT on match day, allowing traders roughly 24 hours after kickoff to assess the outcome.

Inter Milan's historical dominance in head-to-head encounters with Bologna provides the primary framing for the current odds. Since 2015, Inter has won 11 of 16 Serie A meetings between the clubs, with Bologna securing only two victories in that span. Inter's recent consistency—finishing second in Serie A in 2024–25 with 89 points—contrasts sharply with Bologna's mid-table positioning. The 26 per cent probability reflects this asymmetry, though Bologna's home advantage at the Stadio Renato Dall'Ara historically narrows the gap; Bologna's home record against top-six sides in recent seasons shows marginal improvement compared to away performances.

Traders should monitor team news releases in the week preceding 24 May, particularly regarding injury status for Inter's key attacking players and Bologna's defensive personnel. Fixture congestion late in the season—both clubs may have European commitments or title/relegation implications depending on final standings—could affect squad rotation decisions. Recent Serie A injury reports from official club channels and Transfermarkt will signal whether either side fields a weakened XI. Weather conditions at Bologna on match day, typically available 48 hours before kickoff, may also influence tactical approach and set-piece effectiveness.

Methodology

This page tracks Bologna FC 1909 vs. FC Internazionale Milano across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. PolyGram routes every trade through to Polymarket — at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.