Croatia vs. Ghana - Exact Score

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The upcoming FIFA World Cup fixture between Croatia and Ghana, set for 17:00 local time in Philadelphia on 27 June 2026, will resolve based strictly on the 90-minute regulation score, excluding extra time and penalty shoot-outs. This market currently implies a 12% probability for an exact score outcome, suggesting the crowd anticipates a decisive result rather than a draw or a wide-margin victory.

Historically, Croatia’s record against lower-ranked African sides in World Cups frames this probability; they have never lost to a team ranked 40th or lower in the tournament and remain unbeaten in four prior World Cup encounters against African nations [1]. The Opta supercomputer projects Croatia winning 56.3% of pre-match simulations, reinforcing their status as overwhelming favourites despite inconsistent recent form, which includes three defeats in their last five matches [1][3]. This historical dominance suggests the 12% exact score probability likely hinges on a narrow Croatia win, such as 2-1 or 1-0, rather than a Ghana victory.

Traders should monitor pre-match team news and tactical declarations released by both squads, particularly regarding defensive line-ups and attacking substitutions, as Ghana remains one of only four teams at the 2026 World Cup to have conceded zero goals [2]. The market is leaning on the catalyst of Croatia’s offensive pressure against Ghana’s defensive resilience, a dynamic that will be clarified in the final 24 hours before kick-off. Updates from official FIFA match-centre line-ups and training session reports, such as those featuring Modrić and Semenyo, will provide the critical data points needed to reassess the exact score probability [5][6][7].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Croatia vs. Ghana - Exact Score plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

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On Trump Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

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Trump Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

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Zero. Trump Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.