Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Hugo Dellien

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Roberto Carballes Baena and Hugo Dellien are scheduled to meet in the Roland Garros qualifying draw, with the market heavily priced towards a Carballes Baena win. Their clay-court profiles make this a relatively narrow matchup rather than a pure ranking play: both are established on the surface, both have already come through qualifying rounds, and recent head-to-head data points to Carballes Baena holding the edge. The ATP head-to-head record and other match trackers show Carballes Baena leading the rivalry 2-1, with all three meetings on clay, which is the relevant comparator for a Paris qualifying match.

For context, this is the sort of market where pre-match probabilities can sit very close to certainty when one player is viewed as the clear surface favourite, but the settlement rules still matter. A 100% YES price implies the crowd is treating the fixture as effectively live and one-sided, rather than assigning real weight to cancellation risk. Comparable clay-court qualifying matches at Grand Slams often resolve on the basis of recent form and surface comfort rather than headline ranking alone, especially when both players have already played through earlier rounds in the same event.

The main catalyst is simply whether the match is completed and who advances, rather than any off-court development. Tennis data providers such as ATP Tour, Flashscore and Sofascore have the fixture listed, and sportsbook boards including FanDuel have priced it as an active Roland Garros qualifying match. Traders should watch for official match timing, any late withdrawal or walkover, and whether the contest starts and finishes within the market’s seven-day settlement window, because a postponement beyond that threshold would force a different outcome even if one player remains the on-court favourite.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page tracks Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Hugo Dellien across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. PolyGram routes every trade through to Polymarket — at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.