Bengaluru 3: Petr Bar Biryukov vs Alastair Gray

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The market concerns a men’s singles match in Bengaluru between Petr Bar Biryukov and Alastair Gray. The crowd is effectively pricing the outcome as settled, with the implied probability sitting at 100% YES, which in practice usually means the match has already been played or a result has been widely confirmed across score services. Flashscore and the ATP stats archive both point to Gray as the winner, with the ATP score page recording a three-set result, 6-7(5) 6-4 7-6(3), and then listing the match as complete.

For context, tennis markets that drift to an absolute price generally reflect a finished contest rather than a live handicap call. Comparable challenger-level matches in Bengaluru have also been decided tightly, with altitude and hard courts often producing long sets and tiebreaks. Gray’s ATP ranking edge, shown in the live listings, is modest rather than decisive, so the final market shape is better read as confirmation of an already resolved match than as a forecast of a one-sided contest.

The main catalyst here is official match reporting, not forward-looking schedule noise. Traders should watch the ATP Challenger stats centre, Flashscore, and other live-score feeds for any correction if the market is still within the settlement window, but the available sources already align on Gray advancing. If there were any administrative issue, the key dependency would be whether the match was actually completed within seven days of the scheduled date, since a failure to finish would force the 50-50 fallback.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page tracks Bengaluru 3: Petr Bar Biryukov vs Alastair Gray across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. PolyGram routes every trade through to Polymarket — at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.