Geneva Open: Edas Butvilas vs Alexander Bublik

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Edas Butvilas is due to play Alexander Bublik in the Geneva Open round of 16, but the market is still priced at 0% YES despite the match being on the schedule. Public tennis pricing from recent preview coverage points the same way: Bleacher Nation made Bublik a clear favourite at -325, while Lines.com said Polymarket had him around 81% to win, which is broadly consistent with a one-sided matchup.

The main read-through for the market is therefore not on a close contest, but on whether the match is actually completed inside the settlement window. Sofascore and the ATP match page both listed the fixture for 20 May in Geneva, so the key catalyst is live scheduling rather than form. If the match is played and Bublik advances, the market should resolve to him; if play is postponed, abandoned, or pushed beyond seven days without a winner, it falls back to 50-50 under the market rules. That makes match status, not pre-match handicap, the decisive variable to watch.

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Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Geneva Open: Edas Butvilas vs Alexander Bublik plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.