Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Nerman Fatic vs Kyrian Jacquet

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Nerman Fatic and Kyrian Jacquet are due to meet in Roland Garros qualifying, with the market still unresolved as the match has been listed live by score providers and tennis books. The crowd-implied probability sits at 0% YES, which is best read as a stale or technical price rather than a substantive view on the contest. Oddschecker and FanDuel both have Jacquet favoured, with set betting prices pointing to a straight-sets or four-set win rather than a long, even match.

In comparable Grand Slam qualifying ties, the market usually tracks two things: whether the match is actually played within the settlement window, and whether one player is a clear favourite on pre-match and in-play pricing. ATP and live-score listings show the fixture is scheduled and active, while ESPN records Fatic’s qualifying run and Jacquet as his next opponent. That makes the most relevant historical guide a straightforward favourite-versus-underdog qualifier, where the price tends to move quickly once the first set is underway, especially if the favourite holds serve cleanly.

The catalyst to watch is whether the match completes before the 27 May deadline, because an abandonment or excessive delay would force a 50-50 resolution. If it is played, the main dependency is live match state: any early break, physical issue, or retirement would matter more than pre-match sentiment. At present, the market is leaning on the scheduled start and the expectation of a Jacquet advance, with Flashscore and other live listings the best indicators that the fixture is proceeding rather than slipping.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page tracks Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Nerman Fatic vs Kyrian Jacquet across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. PolyGram routes every trade through to Polymarket — at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.