Roland Garros ATP: Stan Wawrinka vs Arthur Fils

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Arthur Fils is due to play Stan Wawrinka in the first round at Roland Garros, with the men’s draw already setting up a clear favourite. DraftKings has Fils around -800 and Wawrinka at about +500, while the market sits much lower at 14% for Wawrinka to advance. That gap is consistent with the wider tournament picture: Fils is among the leading French hopes on home clay, whereas Wawrinka is now outside the top 100 and relying on experience rather than current ranking position. ATP Tour’s Roland Garros preview also singled this tie out as one of the first-round matches to watch.

The best comparable frame is an early-round clay match where the younger, higher-ranked player is strongly favoured but the veteran has enough pedigree to keep some downside alive if conditions shorten the match or disrupt rhythm. Wawrinka’s major-title record makes him a familiar underdog name, yet his recent profile is far less convincing than Fils’ current form on the surface. For pricing, the key question is less name recognition than whether Fils converts his superiority into a straight sets win, because that would leave little room for an upset narrative to build.

The main catalyst is the scheduled start itself: the match is expected on 24 May, with the market only moving to 50-50 if it is not played, finishes level, or is delayed more than seven days without a winner. Traders should watch the official Roland Garros order of play, any late fitness or withdrawal updates, and whether weather pushes the tie back into the tournament’s first week. FanDuel’s and DraftKings’ current match and outright pricing both lean heavily towards Fils, so any notable movement would most likely come from team news rather than from broader tournament sentiment.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page tracks Roland Garros ATP: Stan Wawrinka vs Arthur Fils across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. PolyGram routes every trade through to Polymarket — at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.