Roland Garros WTA: Jasmine Paolini vs Dayana Yastremska

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Jasmine Paolini faces Dayana Yastremska in a Roland Garros women's singles match scheduled for 24 May 2026. The 94% implied probability heavily favours Paolini's progression, reflecting her status as a top-10 player and recent finalist at major tournaments, whilst Yastremska, despite her talent, has struggled with consistency and injury setbacks that have limited her ranking trajectory.

Paolini's positioning at this probability level draws on her 2024 season trajectory, where she reached the Australian Open final and Wimbledon final, establishing herself as a genuine contender on clay courts. Her head-to-head record against players ranked outside the top 20 shows a strong conversion rate in early rounds of Grand Slams. Yastremska's recent form has been mixed; whilst she possesses the technical ability to trouble top players on clay, her ranking volatility and limited recent success at major tournaments suggest she enters this fixture as a clear underdog.

The settlement window extends to 31 May, providing a seven-day buffer beyond the scheduled date. Traders should monitor any weather disruptions typical of Paris in late May, which could delay proceedings without triggering the 50-50 resolution clause. Injury withdrawals remain the primary wildcard—Paolini has managed her schedule carefully through 2025-26, whilst Yastremska's injury history warrants attention to any pre-match fitness announcements. The match timing at 5:00 AM ET suggests an early-round fixture, consistent with the seeding expectations that underpin the current probability.

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Roland Garros WTA: Jasmine Paolini vs Dayana Yastremska plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.