Roland Garros WTA: Liudmila Samsonova vs Jil Teichmann

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Market context

Liudmila Samsonova and Jil Teichmann are scheduled to contest a first-round match at Roland Garros on 24 May 2026. The 0% implied probability suggests traders are either uncertain about match completion or expect a technical resolution rather than a competitive outcome.

Samsonova has historically struggled on clay courts relative to her hard-court performance, though she reached the third round at Roland Garros in 2023. Teichmann, a Swiss left-hander, has shown greater consistency on European clay and reached the second round in 2024. Head-to-head records between these players remain limited, making historical precedent less instructive than surface-specific form. The extreme probability skew likely reflects either fixture uncertainty—early-round scheduling can shift substantially—or market illiquidity rather than a strong directional view on the match itself.

Traders should monitor the official Roland Garros draw confirmation and any injury announcements from either player in the weeks preceding the tournament. Samsonova's recent form on clay and any late withdrawals from the draw would be critical catalysts. The settlement window extends to 31 May, providing a seven-day buffer beyond the scheduled date; matches delayed beyond that window without completion would trigger a 50-50 resolution. Early-round fixtures at Grand Slams occasionally face weather delays or scheduling conflicts that could push resolution into this ambiguous territory, which may explain the current market positioning.

Methodology

This page tracks Roland Garros WTA: Liudmila Samsonova vs Jil Teichmann across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. PolyGram routes every trade through to Polymarket — at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.