Highest temperature in Ankara on May 24?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

This market resolves based on the highest temperature recorded at Ankara's Esenboğa International Airport on 24 May 2026, with settlement determined by historical weather data from Weather Underground. The outcome depends entirely on meteorological conditions on that specific date, with no political or policy variables influencing the physical measurement.

Ankara's May temperatures show consistent patterns across recent decades. Historical data from the Turkish State Meteorological Service indicates that maximum temperatures in late May typically range between 28–32°C, with occasional peaks reaching 33–35°C during heat waves. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either awaiting resolution or treating this as a baseline weather forecast rather than a prediction market event. Comparable May 24th records from prior years provide the primary reference frame; the airport station's elevation and urban heat island effects remain constant variables.

The settlement window closes at noon UTC on 24 May 2026, meaning traders must account for the full day's temperature range before that deadline. Weather forecasting accuracy degrades significantly beyond ten days, so meaningful catalyst information will emerge only in the week preceding the date. Traders should monitor Turkish meteorological forecasts and broader European weather pattern shifts in mid-May 2026, particularly any high-pressure systems moving through the eastern Mediterranean that could drive anomalous heat into central Anatolia. The actual temperature reading will be determined by Esenboğa's official instruments, making this market dependent on instrumental accuracy rather than subjective interpretation.

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Highest temperature in Ankara on May 24? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.