Highest temperature in Atlanta on May 22?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Atlanta’s airport is expected to post a warm late-spring high on Friday, with the National Weather Service guidance pointing to the low-to-mid 80s and mostly cloudy conditions. The market is currently concentrated in the 86–87F band, which is consistent with a modest overshoot from the seasonal average rather than an extreme heat event. For context, Atlanta’s May highs typically sit around 82–83F, and WeatherSpark shows daily highs in the city usually rising from the mid-70s to the low-80s through the month, with 90F readings still uncommon. Extreme Weather Watch shows that the airport can occasionally reach the mid-90s in May, but those outcomes are rare enough that they do not define the usual distribution.

The main catalyst is the final observed high at Hartsfield-Jackson, not a later revision of broader city forecasts. Traders will be watching the last official forecast updates from the National Weather Service and any short-term changes in cloud cover, wind and convective development that could trim or lift the afternoon peak. AccuWeather’s May outlook keeps Atlanta’s daily highs mostly in the 77–87F range, which supports a tight cluster around the low-to-mid 80s unless sun breaks through for longer than expected. With settlement tied to Weather Underground’s airport station reading, the key dependency is whether the warmest part of the day arrives before any late-day cooling.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page tracks Highest temperature in Atlanta on May 22? across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. PolyGram routes every trade through to Polymarket — at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.