Highest temperature in Atlanta on May 24?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The market seeks to identify the highest temperature recorded at Atlanta's Hartsfield-Jackson International Airport on 24 May 2026, settling against historical weather data from Weather Underground. The settlement window closes at midday on that date, capturing the full daily temperature range before resolution.

Atlanta's May climate typically produces highs in the mid-to-upper 80s Fahrenheit, with occasional spikes into the low 90s during heat waves. Historical records from the National Weather Service show that temperatures exceeding 95°F on 24 May are rare but not unprecedented; the city has experienced such readings roughly once per decade during late May. The current 0% probability assigned to the highest temperature ranges suggests traders are anchoring to typical seasonal patterns rather than accounting for the full distribution of possible outcomes, including the tail scenarios that occur in roughly 10–15% of May days when subtropical air masses push northward.

Traders monitoring this market should track seasonal weather pattern forecasts released in May 2026, particularly the position of the jet stream and any tropical moisture advection into the Southeast. The National Weather Service's extended outlook, typically issued five to ten days before the settlement date, will provide the most actionable signal for adjusting probability estimates. Additionally, any significant heat dome or high-pressure system developing over the Southeast in late May would warrant reassessment of the lower-temperature ranges currently favoured by the crowd.

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Highest temperature in Atlanta on May 24? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.