Highest temperature in Atlanta on May 25?

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Market context

On 25 May 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Atlanta's Hartsfield-Jackson International Airport will determine which range this market resolves to. The settlement uses historical weather data from Weather Underground, capturing the peak daily temperature in Fahrenheit across all daylight and evening hours at the airport's official monitoring station.

Atlanta's May temperatures typically range between 75°F and 88°F, with historical highs occasionally exceeding 90°F during heat waves. The National Weather Service records show that late May in Atlanta averages a high of around 82°F, though the city has experienced 95°F+ days in May during particularly warm springs. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either uncertain about the specific range thresholds available in this market or are waiting for seasonal forecasting data closer to the settlement date. Historical volatility in spring weather patterns means late May can produce either mild conditions or unseasonable heat depending on jet stream positioning and Gulf moisture availability.

Traders should monitor the Climate Prediction Center's 30-day outlooks released monthly, which typically become more reliable 2–3 weeks before the settlement window. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's seasonal forecasts, updated quarterly, will provide guidance on whether May 2026 trends warmer or cooler than the 30-year normal. Any El Niño or La Niña conditions developing through early 2026 could influence atmospheric patterns affecting Atlanta's late-spring temperatures. Real-time weather models from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and the GFS become actionable only in the final 10 days before 25 May.

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Highest temperature in Atlanta on May 25? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.