Highest temperature in Beijing on August 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

Beijing’s weather on 10 August is usually firmly in late-summer heat, with long-run August averages clustering around the low 30s Celsius and typical daily highs near 31°C. Historical climate pages for Beijing put 10 August itself at about 33.7°C for the day’s expected high, while broader August records show extremes in the high 30s, so the relevant temperature band is often the 30–34°C range rather than anything near the cool-season tail. [15][19]

That historical backdrop makes the current **0% YES** crowd price look like a strong lean towards an outcome below the market’s chosen threshold, but the settlement depends on the highest reading in Weather Underground’s Daily Observations table at Beijing Capital International Airport, not the summary high. Weather Underground’s Beijing history page shows a 95°F record high in its daily weather history format, which underlines that single-day spikes are possible even when the monthly norm is much lower. [7][19]

For traders, the key catalyst is the intraday temperature path rather than any political-style event calendar: a hot afternoon surge, delayed convection, or a brief pre-evening peak can matter more than the morning reading. The main watchpoint is the weather station feed itself, because the market resolves from the Daily Observations table at Beijing Capital International Airport, so any late-update discrepancy between the table and the summary section is likely to drive the final outcome. [7]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page tracks Highest temperature in Beijing on August 10? across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. For users geo-blocked from Polymarket directly, brokers like Trump Prediction provide a 0%-fee route into the same order book.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

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Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.

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Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.

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Yes. Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer UKGC-regulated UK election markets (seat counts, party share, constituency results). Polymarket also lists UK election contracts with deeper global liquidity. Betfair winnings are typically tax-free for UK individuals; Polymarket profits are subject to HMRC CGT.