Highest temperature in Beijing on May 25?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Beijing's maximum temperature on 25 May 2026 will be measured at the Capital International Airport Station and resolved against historical weather data from Wunderground. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on that date, capturing the full diurnal cycle for the day in question.

May temperatures in Beijing typically range between 25–32°C, with the city entering late spring conditions characterised by increasing solar radiation and occasional warm air masses from the south. Historical records from the past decade show that late May highs at the airport station frequently exceed 28°C, with several years recording peaks above 30°C. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either awaiting clarity on the specific temperature bands available in the market structure, or the resolution criteria remain uncertain pending finalisation of the temperature thresholds against which outcomes will be judged.

Traders should monitor China Meteorological Administration seasonal forecasts and any revisions to climate patterns affecting northern China in spring 2026. The airport station's measurement protocols and any potential infrastructure changes that might affect recording accuracy warrant attention. Real-time weather tracking from May onwards will provide increasingly precise signals; traders typically enter positions once May forecasts stabilise in early-to-mid month, when meteorological models show greater consistency in predicting regional temperature anomalies for the specific date.

Methodology

This page tracks Highest temperature in Beijing on May 25? across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. PolyGram routes every trade through to Polymarket — at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.