Highest temperature in Buenos Aires on May 22?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Buenos Aires is moving into a cool, late-autumn setup, with the forecast for Ezeiza pointing to a modest daytime high rather than anything unusual. World Weather Information Service shows 7°C to 13°C for 22 May, while seasonal normals from WeatherSpark place typical May highs around 61°F to 67°F, or roughly 16°C to 19°C, with daily lows in the low- to mid-teens Celsius. That leaves the market’s reference point firmly in a range where a 13°C reading is plausible, but still well below the sort of warmth that would push the day into a higher bracket.

The 0% implied probability suggests traders are treating that 13°C outcome as effectively priced out, but the historical framing does not justify that level of certainty. May in Buenos Aires is usually a shoulder-season month, with temperatures easing downward through the month rather than staying stable. WeatherSpark’s climatology shows daily highs falling by about 6°F across May, and AccuWeather’s monthly forecast also clusters the city’s highs in the teens Celsius. For a single-station daily maximum, the key issue is whether cloud cover, cooler air advection, or an early-season cold front keeps the airport below the upper teens, which would make 13°C a live result rather than an outlier.

The immediate catalyst is the short-range forecast for Minister Pistarini Intl Airport and any last-minute model adjustments before the settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC. Traders should watch official forecast updates and airport-specific history pages on Wunderground rather than broader city averages, because the market resolves on the highest reading at that station only. With the event already in progress, the main dependency is how much warming occurs in the local afternoon before the day finalises, not any broader weather pattern later in the evening.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Highest temperature in Buenos Aires on May 22? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.