Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chengdu's weather on 11 August 2026 will be measured against historical temperature patterns for that date and season. The city experiences peak summer heat in August, with daily highs typically ranging between 29–35°C during mid-August. Historical data from Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station shows considerable year-to-year variation, influenced by monsoon activity and broader East Asian weather systems. August temperatures in Chengdu have occasionally exceeded 37°C during particularly intense heat waves, though such extremes remain less common than moderate highs in the 30–34°C band.

The 0% crowd probability reflects uncertainty about which specific temperature bracket will be recorded, rather than dismissal of heat itself. Traders should monitor seasonal weather forecasts released in late July and early August, particularly from China Meteorological Administration updates and international models tracking the East Asian summer monsoon. El Niño or La Niña conditions heading into August 2026 will influence regional temperature patterns. The resolution hinges entirely on the Daily Observations table from Weather Underground's Chengdu Shuangliu station, making data availability and measurement consistency critical factors. Any discrepancy between the summary high-low section and the detailed observations table will be resolved in favour of the latter, a distinction that could matter if readings fall near range boundaries.

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 11? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

What resolution source is used for elections?

Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.

Can prediction markets influence election outcomes?

Markets reflect expectations rather than create them. Studies show public-facing markets can anchor expectations, but don't influence the underlying outcome. Political markets are information, not advocacy.

Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?

Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Trump Prediction route into the same order book at 0% fees.

How fast do political markets react to news?

High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.

Are UK election prediction markets available from the UK?

Yes. Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer UKGC-regulated UK election markets (seat counts, party share, constituency results). Polymarket also lists UK election contracts with deeper global liquidity. Betfair winnings are typically tax-free for UK individuals; Polymarket profits are subject to HMRC CGT.