Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 18?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chengdu will experience peak summer heat on 18 August 2026, with the highest temperature recorded at Shuangliu International Airport determining the market outcome. The settlement mechanism relies on Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than summary figures, establishing a precise measurement standard that eliminates ambiguity from different reporting methods.

Chengdu's August temperatures typically range between 28–35°C, though extremes occasionally exceed 37°C during heat waves. Historical data from the China Meteorological Administration shows that mid-August represents the tail end of summer's most intense period, with temperatures beginning a gradual decline toward September. The city's location in the Sichuan Basin creates a heat-trapping effect that amplifies daytime maximums. August 2023 saw Chengdu reach 36.3°C on the 15th, whilst August 2022 peaked at 35.8°C on the 18th itself, providing recent benchmarks for typical conditions.

The 0% crowd probability reflects uncertainty about which specific temperature band will be the settlement outcome rather than doubt about whether heat will occur. Traders should monitor seasonal forecasting models from the China Meteorological Administration and international weather services as August 2026 approaches. La Niña or El Niño conditions active during mid-2026 will influence regional atmospheric patterns; current climate indices suggest monitoring through June and July will clarify whether anomalous heat or cooler-than-average conditions are likely. The precise temperature threshold separating each resolution bracket determines whether marginal differences in afternoon conditions trigger different outcomes.

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 18? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

How accurate are political prediction markets?

Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.

What resolution source is used for elections?

Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.

Can prediction markets influence election outcomes?

Markets reflect expectations rather than create them. Studies show public-facing markets can anchor expectations, but don't influence the underlying outcome. Political markets are information, not advocacy.

How fast do political markets react to news?

High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.

Are UK election prediction markets available from the UK?

Yes. Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer UKGC-regulated UK election markets (seat counts, party share, constituency results). Polymarket also lists UK election contracts with deeper global liquidity. Betfair winnings are typically tax-free for UK individuals; Polymarket profits are subject to HMRC CGT.