Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chengdu’s airport weather on 31 July is the live variable behind this market: the settlement source is the day’s highest reading at Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, so the key question is whether the afternoon heat gets pushed up by sunshine or trimmed by cloud and rain. Current forecast signals are firmly warm, with daily highs clustered around 33–35°C in several services, while one forecast places the peak as high as 37°C around mid-afternoon and another shows 35°C with a risk of rain later in the day.[2][9][11]

The present 0% YES pricing looks like a misread of the temperature bands rather than a view that extreme heat is impossible. Chengdu’s July climatology is often in the low 30s, with travel and forecast sources describing typical daytime highs around 30–35°C and humid conditions that can make it feel hotter, while the city also sees frequent July rain.[15][16][19] Against that backdrop, a result below the upper temperature ranges being shown now would usually require earlier cloud cover, heavier showers, or a weaker afternoon warming than forecast.

For traders, the main catalyst is the sequence of hourly updates from the airport-area forecast and any short-term changes in rainfall timing, because the market resolves on the single highest observed temperature, not the average or the afternoon low.[2][10][11] The practical watchlist is whether the hottest hour lands before convection or storms build, and whether later updates from major weather providers continue to show mid-30s Celsius or shift lower into the low 30s; news coverage of regional heat or rain advisories would matter only insofar as it changes that local forecast.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page tracks Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 31? across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. For users geo-blocked from Polymarket directly, brokers like Trump Prediction provide a 0%-fee route into the same order book.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

How accurate are political prediction markets?

Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.

What resolution source is used for elections?

Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.

Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?

Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Trump Prediction route into the same order book at 0% fees.

How fast do political markets react to news?

High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.

Are political prediction markets legal in my country?

It varies. They sit in legal gray areas in most jurisdictions. Polymarket is geo-blocked from US/UK/EU; some broker frontends have a different geo footprint. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose, and only if you understand the legal status in your jurisdiction.