Highest temperature in Chongqing on August 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market concerns the highest temperature recorded at Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport on 11 August 2026, with settlement based on the Daily Observations table from Weather Underground rather than summary figures. Chongqing experiences a humid subtropical climate with August typically among its hottest months; historical August temperatures at the airport station regularly exceed 35°C, with peaks often reaching 37–39°C during high-pressure systems or heat waves.

August 2025 saw Chongqing record a daily maximum of 38.2°C on the 9th, whilst the preceding five-year average for August highs at the airport station hovers around 36–37°C. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either awaiting clarification on the specific temperature thresholds available for this market, or the resolution criteria have not yet been finalised. Without visibility on the actual temperature bands offered (whether 35–36°C, 36–37°C, 37–38°C, or higher), positioning remains speculative.

Traders should monitor Weather Underground's historical data publication schedule and any clarifications from the market operator regarding available resolution brackets. China Meteorological Administration forecasts for early August 2026 will become relevant from late July onwards. The settlement window closes at noon UTC on 11 August, allowing only morning observations to factor into resolution; traders should verify whether the airport station's observation times align with this deadline, as some Chinese weather stations report on local time schedules that may create ambiguity around final readings.

Methodology

This page tracks Highest temperature in Chongqing on August 11? across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. For users geo-blocked from Polymarket directly, brokers like Trump Prediction provide a 0%-fee route into the same order book.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

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