Highest temperature in Chongqing on June 26?

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Market context

Chongqing is entering its peak summer heat phase, with the city’s hot season officially running from late June through early September and average daily highs consistently exceeding 85°F. Historical records show the municipality has endured 149 days with maximum temperatures of 40°C or higher since 1951, including a record peak of 43.2°C in August 2022[5][9]. Recent prediction markets for Chongqing temperatures in mid-June 2026 have already priced in highs near 31°C to 32°C, driven by a subtropical high-pressure ridge pushing over the Sichuan Basin[3]. The current 0% YES probability for any temperature range on June 26 appears inconsistent with these comparable cases, suggesting the market may be misreading the seasonal trend or awaiting a specific catalyst to reset odds.

Traders should monitor real-time updates from Wunderground for the Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station, as this is the official resolution source for the market[2]. Key catalysts include announcements from China’s National Meteorological Centre regarding heatwave warnings, scheduled declarations from local authorities on public cooling measures, and any recent campaign-finance disclosures related to climate infrastructure projects in the southwest region[7]. A Reuters report from August 2025 highlighted residents seeking shelter as temperatures topped 40°C, indicating the region’s vulnerability to extreme heat events that could directly influence June 26 outcomes[7]. The market is leaning on the timing of the subtropical ridge’s movement, which has historically driven peak temperatures in Chongqing during this period[3]. Without a clear shift in weather patterns or a new data point, the 0% probability remains an outlier against established historical and recent market precedents.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page tracks Highest temperature in Chongqing on June 26? across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. Trump Prediction routes every trade through to Polymarket — at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Trump Prediction?

Zero. Trump Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Trump Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.