Highest temperature in Dallas on August 9?

Platform comparison

Market context

Dallas’s heat on 9 August will be judged by what the observing station at Dallas Love Field logged in its daily observations, not by any headline summary figure, and markets on this kind of temperature event usually move late because the final print depends on the day’s maximum being fixed only after the observation cycle closes. With the crowd already treating the outcome as effectively settled at **0% YES** for any alternative band, the more useful reference is the day’s actual peak: historical and forecast sources for Dallas in August commonly cluster around the upper 90s to near 100°F, so a result in that range is the baseline traders have been leaning on rather than an outlier heat spike.[8][4][3]

For framing, comparable Dallas summer outcomes tend to resolve toward the station’s observed maximum rather than the broader metro narrative, which matters because airport readings can differ materially from city-wide forecasts and media summaries. The National Weather Service’s Dallas/Fort Worth climate materials show a normal maximum of 97°F for 9 August, while Polymarket’s own market page says traders have converged overwhelmingly on 98–99°F, underscoring how tightly the market is anchored to a near-normal hot day rather than a record-setting extreme.[4][1] Extreme August records in Dallas are far above that range, but those are historical tail cases rather than a guide to a routine summer session.[11]

The main catalyst for traders is not campaign-style timing but the observation schedule itself: the price should ultimately follow the final Daily Observations entries as they post, with Weather Underground’s history page for Dallas Love Field as the settlement source.[8] In practice, the watch-list is the late-afternoon high and any subsequent adjustment to the daily table before the next day’s first datapoint is published, because revisions can still change the official maximum within the settlement window.[1] Forecast pages from the National Weather Service and AccuWeather both point to a broadly hot August pattern in Dallas, which is why the market is leaning on a mundane heat-day outcome rather than a sharp surprise.[5][3]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Highest temperature in Dallas on August 9? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

How accurate are political prediction markets?

Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.

What resolution source is used for elections?

Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.

Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?

Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Trump Prediction route into the same order book at 0% fees.

How fast do political markets react to news?

High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.

Are UK election prediction markets available from the UK?

Yes. Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer UKGC-regulated UK election markets (seat counts, party share, constituency results). Polymarket also lists UK election contracts with deeper global liquidity. Betfair winnings are typically tax-free for UK individuals; Polymarket profits are subject to HMRC CGT.