Highest temperature in Guangzhou on August 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

Guangzhou’s heat on 10 August is usually governed by the city’s late-summer monsoon pattern: August averages are around 32–33°C by day, with frequent rain and high humidity, so the more relevant question is whether afternoon heating outpaces cloud cover and showers. Recent forecast pages for Guangzhou point to a hot day, with AccuWeather showing a high near 100°F and hourly temperatures pushing up through the afternoon, while Weather Underground’s current history page for the city shows a very warm start to the morning and an active day ahead.[2][12][14]

That context matters because the market is not asking about the headline forecast high, but the highest reading that ends up appearing in Weather Underground’s Daily Observations table at Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station. Comparable August records from travel and climatology sources cluster in the low 30s Celsius, with typical highs around 33°C and occasional peaks into the mid-30s, so a reading in the 33–36°C band would fit the historical pattern better than an extreme outlier.[7][8][11][17] In practical terms, a 0% yes probability leaves the market leaning almost entirely on whether the day reaches the upper end of the usual August envelope rather than on any rare record heat.[2][8]

For traders, the main catalyst is the day’s actual observation sequence: the first strong afternoon surge, any sea-breeze or thunderstorm interruption, and whether late-day sunshine allows the station to tack on a final increment before the close of the settlement window. The more exposed the city stays to clearing skies and sustained solar heating, the more likely the Daily Observations table will print a temperature above the low-30s Celsius benchmark; if cloud build and rain dominate, the cap is usually lower. Current weather pages suggest heat is already established, so the market is leaning most heavily on the intraday forecast path rather than on longer-run monthly averages.[12][14][18]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page tracks Highest temperature in Guangzhou on August 10? across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. For users geo-blocked from Polymarket directly, brokers like Trump Prediction provide a 0%-fee route into the same order book.

Resolution & payout

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