Highest temperature in Guangzhou on June 27?

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Market context

Guangzhou is currently experiencing a period of intense subtropical heat and humidity, with recent records showing temperatures climbing as high as 36.3°C in May, making it the hottest May in history for the region[5]. Historical data for June indicates that the highest temperature ever recorded in the city reached 36.6°C, while average highs typically sit between 32°C and 35°C, often accompanied by heavy thunderstorms and frequent downpours[1][2]. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% for the "YES" outcome suggests the market is betting the temperature will fall outside the specific range being queried, likely because forecasters anticipate the heavy rain and thunderstorms typical of late June will suppress peak temperatures below the threshold required for a win[4].

Traders should closely monitor the upcoming weather bulletins from the Guangzhou Meteorological Bureau regarding the timing of the next typhoon or severe thunderstorm system, as these events are the primary catalysts that could drastically lower the day's maximum temperature[1]. While no specific political debates or campaign-finance disclosures directly influence weather patterns, the market is leaning heavily on the meteorological dependency of the subtropical high-pressure system, which currently dominates the region and drives the extreme heat[1]. Recent news from People's Daily confirms the city has seen several continuous sunny days recently, but the imminent arrival of wetter conditions in late June remains the critical variable that will determine the final settlement temperature[5].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page tracks Highest temperature in Guangzhou on June 27? across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. Trump Prediction routes every trade through to Polymarket — at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Trump Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Trump Prediction?

Zero. Trump Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.