Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Hong Kong Observatory will record the highest temperature on 11 August 2026, measured in degrees Celsius to one decimal place. This market resolves based on the official "Absolute Daily Max" figure published in the Observatory's Daily Extract once data is finalised following the settlement window closure at midday UTC on that date.

Hong Kong's August temperatures are among the year's most consistent. Historical data from the Observatory shows daily maxima in August typically range between 31°C and 34°C, with extreme readings rarely exceeding 35°C. The 11th falls within the peak summer season when monsoon patterns and urban heat effects stabilise thermal conditions. Comparing August 2025 and prior years provides the most reliable baseline: the Observatory's climate records show little volatility in daily maxima during this month, with most days clustering within a narrow band. This historical consistency explains why traders currently assign minimal probability to extreme outcomes.

The primary dependency is the monsoon system's intensity in early August 2026. The Hong Kong Observatory issues seasonal forecasts typically in June, with monthly updates available through July. Traders should monitor the Observatory's official monthly weather summary and any typhoon activity in the Western Pacific, as tropical systems can either suppress temperatures through cloud cover or elevate them through atmospheric pressure changes. The Observatory publishes preliminary daily data within 24 hours of observation, though final figures for settlement purposes appear in the Daily Extract within several days. No scheduled announcements directly affect this market; resolution depends entirely on observed meteorological conditions and timely data publication.

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 11? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

How accurate are political prediction markets?

Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.

Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?

Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Trump Prediction route into the same order book at 0% fees.

How fast do political markets react to news?

High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.

Are political prediction markets legal in my country?

It varies. They sit in legal gray areas in most jurisdictions. Polymarket is geo-blocked from US/UK/EU; some broker frontends have a different geo footprint. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose, and only if you understand the legal status in your jurisdiction.

Are UK election prediction markets available from the UK?

Yes. Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer UKGC-regulated UK election markets (seat counts, party share, constituency results). Polymarket also lists UK election contracts with deeper global liquidity. Betfair winnings are typically tax-free for UK individuals; Polymarket profits are subject to HMRC CGT.