Highest temperature in Hong Kong on May 22?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The Hong Kong Observatory’s final “Absolute Daily Max” for 22 May will determine the outcome, with the settlement source explicitly tied to the day’s completed Daily Extract. On a date like this, the key question is whether the city posts a late-spring spike or stays within its more typical May range. Hong Kong’s climatology usually points to highs in the high 20s Celsius, while the Observatory’s May records show that lows in the 30s are possible but uncommon. That makes the upper bands the only realistic focus if temperatures push into a hotter-than-average regime.

The market’s 0% implied chance of the YES outcome suggests traders are heavily anchored to the expectation that the final reading will sit below the target threshold, rather than to any live weather risk. Comparable Hong Kong temperature markets have tended to move with short-range forecast adjustments rather than broad seasonal averages, so the main reference is the same-day and next-day guidance from the Hong Kong Observatory and major forecast providers. Recent climatology from the Observatory shows May can produce notably warm days, but the distribution still favours moderate highs over extremes.

The catalyst to watch is the Observatory’s final daily extract, not mid-morning forecasts alone, because the market cannot resolve until the data are finalised. Traders should focus on whether any late heat, sunshine, or downslope flow is forecast for the morning hours before the 12:00 UTC settlement window closes. If updated local forecasts or weather alerts point to an unusually warm morning, that would be the only plausible route for the market to reprice; absent that, the current zero-price remains consistent with the usual late-May temperature profile.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page tracks Highest temperature in Hong Kong on May 22? across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. PolyGram routes every trade through to Polymarket — at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.